Typhoon Tip

yeah ... tongue in cheek. i'm not sure what the navgem model ( seriously ... ) was really invented for. i think it's a 'frankenmodel' - kinda like the old dgex days. i used to love the dgex model. talk about a methadone clinic! storm going away in the guidance? no problem - just open the dgex and it seemed to always dependably take whatever it had on the nam at 72 hours, and manufacture like 10 closed isobars out of it. not saying the navgem does that. but one thing i know it seldom ever does is accuracy. i get the feeling though that the model isn't there to make us "happey" (heh) no, but it might have some specific application that's not intended for general operational forecasting - not sure. it's speciated out of the navy's "nogaps" model being somehow fused into the ggem if memory serves - if that was some sort of random experiment ( otherwise ...), it's time for it to go away, either way.

right ...then we have to fight the fact that the nam always has a nw bias in the western atl basin beyond 42 ..48 hours. lol haha can't win

ineedsnow ... you really should not be thanking anyone for that guffaw model

yup, typically with this model ... it's what 'not to do' - example, the 06z solution did not do what the 00z run did.

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. the navgem. the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow

the gfs just does this, i swear. it puts out one run from like 12 days in advance that's balls on perfect, then spends the next 60 model run cycles raging in ocd to engineer every plausible f'n alternate universe that can exist in a reality constructed by the quantum uncertainty principle instead of the original.

yeah .. full disclosure, i know this thread was mainly "experimental" - and it was ... but, about mid way since i was admittedly more thinking something other than complete bullshit for this effort, too - thing is, we all know the index numerology/projections therein are made more useful by then looking at the spatial aspects of the super synopsis. hugely important to this latter facet, understanding/detecting subtle trends. one of which has been this Auschwitzian dental exam of a western ridge - never seen a +2 delta pna move be so non-committal to a western n/a ridge like this before. i'm wondering if speed in the flow this... or more phase 5 mjo that... i don't want to instill hope, or add to the seemingly problematic d-drip mania problem with this social media engagement ... ( lol ) but, this keeps reminding me of the Boxing Day storm back in 2010's, great cosmic dildo winter for specifically Ayer, Ma ... (eh hem) that storm was essentially dead and vanquished from the charts over a great initial look at like d8, too. with just 42 or something hours to go ... it came all the way back to deliberately give me, personally, 2.4" of arctic dust while ingrate trolls that didn't deserve it were rewarded with blizzard b.js yeah... heh. anyway, modeling standards really have steeply improved a lot in the last 12 years - not sure that is happening quite the same here. we are not seeing a complete loss from the charts. the vestiges of "should" happen/suggestions are still there. so if it comes back stronger in the short game, it won't be so drastic but this has been a really, really lousy drug supply. i say we switch dealers!

but in deference to all ... all models did exceptionally well with that - at least as far as my memory aligns. that may not have been anything particular to euro skill, but more having to do with just the uniqueness of that hemisphere at the time. unique situations tend to have overwhelming physics that tend to dominate the field while they are passing through out in time ... that's why "Sandy" and "Superstorm, 1993" and on and on, were detectable quite far out in the guidance and became eerily confident from a long way off ...unlike this giant piece of f'ing shit

... the forcing arrives from the pac - that induces the tpv descent ... just sayn'

new gfs right off the bat this run has a 00z chart

it's interesting this model handling of the +d(pna) expression across the continent has been getting pancaked ( latitude squeeshed ) as an ongoing battle. it really smacks like the the phase 5 mjo has more play in forcing a lower frequency transmission

for 144 hours ... maybe this will be different, but from my experience ... when the 00z ggem, 00z gefs, 00z ecm blend looks the way it does at 6 days, best case scenario typically results in yeah.. you get something out of it but it ceilings a middling/pedestrian event. i do see the 18z to 00z to 06z large continuity breaking as a red flag - maybe there is a bigger event being masked by modeling ineptitude. i dunno

hm sufficed it is to say … this is going to morph in future runs. that’s an unlikely stall position up there east of Freeport maine when that structure so deep and cutting off over ne PA The problem with this run was that it didn’t have quite enough dpva as it was first amplifying so that the low took too long to get started but if we just get a little bit more dpva earlier on in that sequence and all that ends up over block Island

This is just about where we want this to look like at 168 hrs

yeah, i'd stick with the multi member plots, Ray -

there's a subtly there that is important imo the strongest solutions are biased on the left side of that 'inner spread' region. i'm pretty sure those members, vs the outer/weaker ones ..., are in conflict over the degree of deep layer meridian character there is to the circulation mode at this time.

i know what you're saying ... i'm not talking about the concept of being in a good position at this far out in time... i'm just comparing the eps ens that i provided above, to that scalar gefs... the latter is clear whiff as is. the comparison is interesting

impressive compared to the utterly non-existence portrayed by the gefs ... this below is a 972 low tucked into the bite region of ny, with a ton of cold air over alb-lower 'hampshire ... it's probably mix contention eventually but this probably is a lot of snow/wind prior...

this euro run is suspect beyond 120 hours for me. the ridge barely progressing e, off an approximate 100 to 110w longitudinal axis, yet the s/w's are racing e and stretching the flow like that - mm it's more likely those s/w slow down. not sure about amplitude and what that means as far as any cyclogen, but that former practice is suspect.

i was looking at the ggem? - sorry you guys might have been gfsing

ha! i'd trophy case the 156 ggem's 500 mb heights and sfc

that's the one we're supposed to be following ... this 19/20th's n/stream bullying in routine is new... we're still not completely shedding the wave space contention problem, in addition to the western ridge stuff... altho there may be a relationship.

fwiw - ggem looks better comparing interval 132 hrs to 144 from 00z

might have to "boxing day bomb" this thing