Typhoon Tip

Ray can bun you but if it's worth anything, I noticed this myself. But, I didn't notice it as 'only the GFS' doing this. I thought they all were doing a "relay capture," where a mere weakness ( yes ...some models more coherenly demo this than other ) initiates the N bias to the track, and then 500 mb carving out a saddle tough to the N is just too much to resists and it's next stop Ireland. I've seen that happen circumstantially over the years...It's a valid interaction. However, there are reasons to question that. For one, the interaction between the weakness and the fledgling TC is complex and may be that way. Secondly, the 500 mb trough that does the final capture could be a touch over -amplified. I've been railing on about the models having amplitude biases, particularly the GFS, in the late mids and ext ranges for years. I don't see any indication yet of that bias no longer being the case. It's particularly true in the winters - not as sure in their handling of summer hemispheres. None of this above is intended to insinuate increased chances of this thing making to the Americas. just some observations I've been making re the mode of the SW Atlantic

Did 27 holes of Golf yesterday amid 81/54 ... not that anyone should care, but for me this is okay vacation weather. It's amenable to actually being outdoors engaging life. I don't like DP elevation just for the sake of them being high, unless special circumstance. But, seein' as that's part of life, the next best thing is not to have elevated DPs, not while any temperature is above about 75.. 75 / ~ 67 is the cut off. Anything above that gets sensibly stressful - slow cook at first but low air flow 85/ 70 with any kind of sun gets irritable pretty quickly. I guess some hypocrisy here, DP can actually have its place in a narrow gap between 75/72 ... particularly if there's a breeze, and tropical turrets going by. In fact, if the breeze is active and these bee-bee convection cycle over head to offer shade moments, the Bahama Blue thing we mention has some appeal. I just don't find any use for 88+/67 under unrelenting sun and hazy blue searing sky, with light or no wind. It's no different in terms of annoyance's scalar value, to being 43 with zero snow chances and nothing on the ground in January. Actually, snow or no snow, 43 F winters can go f themselves. I've come to find my favorite is right around 86 / low DP, though. Warm and dry. Not hot and dry, with splashes of sun after reprieving shade by passing fair weather clouds and/or trips under trees is ... And please, no f'ing smoke!

Where I am here, last night's low was 58 ( 57.7) That looks to be about as close to pin pointing the climate average as a chaotic world is capable. Not intending to gaslight, but ... I almost wonder if the "cool" characterization is more of acclimation thing. Cool requires a negative departure. Lol. Fair enough ... I mean, if it hasn't "fallen" to average in a long enough time. There's climate and then there's sensible appeal. I thought it was interesting that we had a radiator night just in general. I can recall in the years back whence ( slow rocking chair with ribbons of pipe smoke risin' ), we would get these radiator nights going by mid August. However, those would be more like 50 - it's like we're conserving that behavior, but at a loftier scale. It's almost like radiational cooling nights used to be 52, 42, 32, 22, spanning Aug thru Nov.

It's well known that the northern Polar regions have been warming at something like 2.5X the global rate in the ongoing CC monitoring. I wanna say I read recently, that's been corrected even more so. However, the cause of which is still being studied as to why. Meanwhile, I keep seeing studies/articles similar to this: https://phys.org/news/2024-08-unexpectedly-large-methane-source-overlooked.html I've been wondering ... Perhaps it is the flux of C02 and/or Methane that is directly related to the arctic warming acceleration. It may be kind of ACME science sounding, but ... the PVs relative strength over the years might in fact trap lower tropospheric fluxes, particularly during positive phases of the AO. The idea there is that consequentially, elevating local Methane etc might trap might more heat ( relative to the trapped environment ). The reasoning there is admittedly perhaps an over simplification of a lot of complex processes and feed backs, both positive and negative therein... However, a positive AO tends to 'bottle' cold N; by physical constraint, the dispersion out of the arctic of cold is slowed during those phases. Wouldn't the dispersion of C02/Methane fluxes follow the air flow? The +AOs may not be homogenizing the arctic tropospheres with the global ambience ... outside the PV domain, as readily as it would during -AOs ... That's when conveyors that deliver cold to middle latitudes become established, being academic. In other words, positive feed back for warming might be circuited through the slower dispersion rate of out-gassing. Of course ...one would think with hundreds or even thousands of atmospheric accredited scientists working the CC-arctic, this has been thought of and/or papered by now. Haven't check. This could all be reinventing wheels. I checked the last 30 years, and the AO has been positive. A cursory evaluation of the coarse graphical product at CPC does suggest that the AO has been positive more than negative since 1990.

Augusts have changed over the course of my life. I remember as a child getting poked in bare feet trying to run through the back yard, because the grass dried out in August and turned beige. It would be more dry and with still lingering warm temperatures. Higher DPs seems like it's crept into the anticipation over the years. If we end up in one of those Bahaman stream line flow deals like yesterday... yeah that would happen from time to time.

Looks fake heh

Unless hgts begin to rise more over the maritime all you’re ever going to see from the models is tease after tease after tease …

I don’t think a 10/70 split’s all that great in bowling tho

OT: the reason power prices are elevated(ing)... not just in CT but everywhere, is claimed by "big power" to be caused by supply shortages relative to demand. Which is impossible to prove otherwise ... Op Ed: I don't believe this is really the case. I believe there are increasing numbers of state and federal rebate programs to get residence and commercial grid users to go toward more efficient energy consumption technology, as well going solar and green power generation options. The combination of rebates ( which can range from 5 to 20k dollars ) attracting this conversion ( primitive initiative in the combating of AGW as the grid is still largely powered by fossile fuels), and solar pay-outs from surplus ... are beginning to place economic pressure/losses on the glut machinery that they've always enjoyed. These are not socially owned power suppliers and delivery companies - they are still capitalistic enterprises. You cannot impose losses on them and expect them to not to respond in kind - they chalk up this impossible to prove bs when all they are really after is transferring those losses back onto anyone in the grid that is is still suckling from their teet. Or ... maybe they are truly virtuous and are doing this because they have huge hearts and care about Gaia, and it's got nothing to do with money ... so they are attempting to squeeze people that way to save the planet as the heroes Pick

dp might be inflated here by that 'warm' shower ...

same ... wind just picked up too a bit. jumped to 83/78 very Aruba like

last year I had a DP here of 80 on two separate occasions. it's 78/76 at the moment ... but yeah, right up there. we were 64/63 at dawn but as expected, warm frontal surging getting single pixel down pours. 30 seconds of water boarding rain rates then nothing

MDR is activating in time here ... said so myself earlier in the week, and probably so did others for their own methods. beyond that concept, meh. another 24 hours later, another 24 different ideas as to what that might mean out in space and time. yesterday at this time the larger scale 'cane climate aspects had trending favorably for EC ... 00z they look like dung... ( modeling on average). yet, this 12z GFS somehow manages to place a TC E of Jersey with 00z recognizable climate inference bottom line, no stock in any depictions beyond 120 hrs... maybe out to 168 but no agreed that it may not be the only system. the favorability for genesis probably last 7 to 10 days

Depends on the IOH ( integrate ocean heat ). You're right that cyclone trafficking across a given region will tend to cool the surface waters, but ... if the overturning is doing so through a deeper thermocline than naturally the overturned column will remain warmer.

should be some impressive sensible differences coming in here today with this warm front poised to surge through

The headline zealots will love the 10 day Euro... ...setting us up to finally earn our own attribution badge ... actually, this could set up regardless to be fair. but that's like a 2 or 3 day easterly anomaly with tons of water, BEFORE a 'cane gets potentially sucked on in and up.

This is precarious ... long way away, but it is closer to the canonical broader scale circulation mode - it's something like 80%

No it was over land. This was clearly a rotating updraft at cloud materialization. but yeah... water spouts can sometimes register early. i've wondered in the past if that's just the higher moisture content helping to expose rotation more prolifically. Like there may be more rotation below common congestus cloud types that is just unknowable because there's no condensation. I was driving home from a day at Narragansett Beach once and we were heading back N on Rt 1 and as we passed through the s-breeze boundary/ up under the dark-based CUs there was a long rope funnel extending down from the mass and slopping horizontal. it was partially translucent making it hard to see .. .but that's no obstacle for the obsessive cloud nerds like myself.. - you cannot hide! I've actually seen small elevated 'micro' ropes tentacled out from the sides of random fair weather cu often enough. you just need sunglasses, patience, and obsession and you'll see them. granted those are different than wholesale rotating CU ... but there's a relationship. it's all academic really

I saw a photo once of a small cu tower pre glaciation ..., with a funnel extending half way to the ground.

Rt 2 along this eastern end and NE MA is scamming a beauty of a morning out of this theta-e tsunamis pattern.

You'd have to know what the exponential value is to be precise. Than you can take the root ( determine )... like, maybe if it's the exponential increase goes by the square, than you take the square root of 8. something like day 2.8 or so. that point in time should stop the momentum. seems intuitive. heh, at least you're not giving the interviewer dead air, gaped mouth and vacant stair for an answer

A little smidge of sarcasm in that, too but yeah ... there's been pattern misfortune, unrelenting, just as much. The thing that's sort of frustrating about this last decade since 2015 is that we really can't blame any subjective, or objectively poor winter performances entirely on CC - not that anyone is or has, just sayn'. It's perhaps academic to say but sometimes it needs to be stated: there's winters available on this planet down to 40 N. The acceleration of CC is very real, though. Ultimately it will damn the future. With 8 billion Industrial-advantaged oil-slaved inhabitants, that number's so large that if so many as 5% fail to abide by some sort of immediate remediation miracle... it doesn't matter how many trees the remaining 95% dry hump. The whole thing is untenable. In other words, we're still fucked as a species. People don't realize that destiny won't be survivable, not without a lot of hardships and major set backs. There is, maybe one hope at salvation. The same innovation that got humanity to a state of actually being a geological force on this planet (the "Anthropocene" as some are trying to codify), could win the race. When we sold our collective soul to this Industrial ways and means ... we also committed to it as our savior. Some rhetoric here but just saying that between carbon reclamation this, and plastic eating bacterium that and whatever "Humans will never fly" tech soon to emerge, puts us in a race between waking up from denial and complacency vs doom. Digressing...sorry. shit. But, the global temperature has risen 1.1 C since 1880, with most of it occurring since 1975. At least according to Goddard/NASA... Now, that does not include the global heat burst early in 2023 ...one which did not "settle back" The lurch stayed. That might push the decimal of that value a little. Not sure how much. Either way, not enough emphasis is put on the acceleration aspect. Very dangerous. The future can not be extrapolated using a linear inference ...unless we're fucking morons. I do think some of the unusual pattern behaviors can be attributable. The oddities have sort off served us "bad luck"

Weirdly warm Friday night

heh what is this social media support group gonna be like when this winter’s zactly like the last 3 or 4 of em, despite all leading interpolated indicators, interpretations, seasonal forecasts and arguments