Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2024-08-day-tomorrow-climate.html

uh yeeeah, it'd be kind of ironic that an activity whose benefit is in part life longevity led directly to a Darwin Award.

I love how whenever I post anything everyone flees the given thread. 'Recently Browsing' shrinks all the way down to just 3 or 4 members ... probably off taking shits anyway.

There's countless other references to this concern by simple Googling too.. I just think this Debra deal is about as pretty a candidate for winning that beauty pageant as any - again, just based on cursory eval of the surrounding environmental destiny.

All humor and ... collective fetish for humiliating Kevin aside, the table appears setting for an - to me - RI of some sort in about 30+hrs. By then the zygote TD will have moved bodily away from its limiting interaction with the land mass of Cuba, and over the SE Gulf o/Mex. That region host the famed "loop current," a surface to very deep vortex column that contains some of the highest integrated OHC on the planent, above which the sfc to air coupled environment is like levitating over a pan of simmering water. That in and of itself isn't enough but in the case of "Debra" the modeled deep layer mass fields look to me like they're supremely constructed. There's fractals in the area where there is effectively 0 shear, amid a region where if there is any it's well below any threshold that would impede the development of vertically sustaining convective structures. Lot of long words for a system that might become photogenic, and with very low shear and u/a diffluent radial geometry and all the OHE ... doing so at a rather accelerated pace ...heh. I've read a recent paper about RI increased frequency increasing around the world, well... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2 This could become a bomb concern and doing so prior to impacting the NE Gulf. I might be missing something - I am basing it on the coarser data sourcing of the web, and not some super inference machinery down at TPC. But looking at the baser theoretical parameters, I'd be a little more than just bun leery if I owned property anywhere between Pensacola and St Pete.

yes ... sarcasm is vastly too nuanced and complex - I know... lol

Well ... thankfully for you, then, off all possibilities, that's the lowest. There's a much better chance that this will smear out S of here - once the models inevitably correct for amplitude bias in that range, overall. I'd even venture there's a better chance for this thing coming on board and rotting in the TV before getting west of CT.

I remember all the way back to Gloria ... that one, for some reason, you just new when it was some 5 days away that it was coming up here. I don't know how. I mean the modeling tech underneath the newly arriving weather graphic technology was primitive compared to pita flop ( wait 'till QC cores come online), operating in parallel processing at dizzying computational speeds, all having access to much denser initialization data or interpolation methods ... Despite the comparatively HUGE learning disability of that yester-ear, it was coming. I have not sensed anything like that with the tropics since. I have countless times with snow events - just none of those since 2015 lol. In fact, I think we're behind ( statistically ) on 'dramatic event climatology'? I feel like VT's floods are about it ... but that's sort of not SNE, even though we share the same sforum bandwidth. Maybe the Monson tornado... but I sorta don't count town scaled anomalies... I mean real pan dimensional regional concerns... Doesn't even have to be state of em regional juggernaut headlines, but give us a 90 percenter big anything? It's been rather docile.

Still involving scenario though I mean, euro doesn’t even bring that thing up the coast. The longer range hemisphere looks like it wants to try and flip sort of a negative PNAP. Euro was trying to initiate that transition before it can even come north and that traps it down there underneath the evolving WAR

Two sensitivities… One is what you just said …the other one is that thing looks like it’s too robustly developing that close to land. maybe one but as of now I’m having trouble finding an analog

Lost power for over 2 hours … storms were potent enough. It’s always those who were lucky enough to dodge inconvenience that stand up so willing to spear head clarification over event significance. Lol

Just slow movers ... SPF is situated pretty far inland... no evidence of breeze boundary. However, there's subtle heights falls moving over a high heat/elevated DP air mass, and with some oreographic assist over N/CT there's a triggering mechanism there.

93/74 so ... yeah

Looks like we have one of those classic Springfield stationary water boarding events setting up

Those towers have to be getting pretty high wow

18:40 84.2 66.2 71.6 55 21.9 SW 29.68 29.87 Mostly Cloudy 10.00 5500 18:37 84.0 66.9 72.0 57 27.6 40.3 WSW 29.68 29.87 Thunder, Squalls 10.00 5500 40.3 WSW 18:35 84.2 68.0 72.7 58 28.8 34.5 WSW 29.68 29.87 Squalls 10.00 5500 18:30 91.4 71.6 76.9 53 21.9 35.7 SW 29.69 29.88 Mostly Cloudy 10.00 5500

The Euro is attempting to modulate those latter frames' synoptic hemisphere toward what I was describing in the August thread. This run appears to be emerging that. During those latter ranges it's now raising heights N-NE of HA ... That transmits a pattern reversal down stream over the continent - in the summer, the wave lengths are less coherent than winter so ... But still, there it is. Also, notice the heights over the NAO domain, particularly the western limb? there's zip blocking and longitudinal flow type setting up. That will also draw the westerlies N along the EC, and then WAR retros west underneath. There's actually ( ironically) a growing signal there for a heat wave in the OV to NE region - mind you ...this is all evolving.

yeah, that's been the specter with this one for days. I haven't really been keeping up on threads so not sure who gets credit and when but this has been missing some canonical features. No pulsed -NAO over the western limb, while ..yeah there's a trough near 90 W but the saddle bag structure is too opened up like you're saying. I guess there's time to change.

looks like the model ran an experiment to pass a cane the closest it could possibly come while meaning the lowest possible fun while doing so. ha

90 at noon makes it day 2. I don't think we're gonna make it tho because tomorrow looks sort of 88/76-ish

solid analysis. personally ...I'd suggest there's possibility for a more than just AN. ( altho - it almost seems we have to "attribute study" every AN now to know if its the pattern or something else. One could be right about the pattern, but CC makes it +1 blah blah ) Anyway, there's signs among the various guidance for heights to rise beyond D7 out N-NE of HA over the Pac ... transmitting an albeit weak, but there nonetheless, telecon for lowering height exertion over the western continent. Meanwhile, the NAO appears to be rising positive independent of that - so it seems... - which signals rising heights in the OV/MA and NE. The combo of both those is playing with fire (haha).

https://phys.org/news/2024-08-japan-hottest-july-began.html

Looks like a shot at a heat wave this week. Today, tomorrow ... Saturday? Folks talking about ending summer - for those that embrace and enjoy summer, however, I suppose we just hideout and enjoy the here and now. This will make the 3rd official for my location. Otherwise, it's been an 89er summer ... with as usual, unusually elevated lows.

the discussion moves into the murk of personal druthers. I like 'nickle and dime' along steady diet years.

For me it has been since 2015. Like you ... I don't need 150 to 300% of average climo snow, falling through a -10 F February to get the point across. But just a Currier&Ives winter it's been been the better part of a decade. As an aside ... what I think also skews this discussion and makes people want to engage in internet fights ( haha ) is that singular events going way above "storm climatology" - folks that argue in favor of winter are wrong. Period. That is "cheating" seasons for lack of better word. But that's a rabbit hole... I just know that I have personally observed 70 to 80+ F in 7 of the last 9 year's worth FEB-MAR periods ( and January's suck on big brown chocolate balls too often as well ...) all happening despite Brian getting 42" of snow in 20 minutes 2021, or March birch benders like 2018, enough to compensate and make it seem fair. These other years may not be dogshit winters, per se, but it's like trying to eat supper while Fido's hangin' one in the corner of the room.