Typhoon Tip

yeah, it means more to RH. like ... when it is 30f'ing9 degrees and pouring rain, while 'Making America great again' folk inform us that it's an unending, unperturbed perfect spring of warm days, ... the RH is likely up there around 99% phew. so hot that you have to install. I mean after all, it's 99

oh, I know what the problem is - you have to stare at the illuminated disk with unaided, unprotected eye for no less than 5 consecutive minutes.

the cloud motion on there is something. 180 and deg between low and upper levels like that - I mean no angle. That rareness is what it takes to f over SNE from getting truly warm this late spring.

looping this .. we're "clearly" getting very lucky here in southeast NH and northeast MA. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined And no kidding! the cleanliness of the air must be providing exceptional radiation efficiency because 'brillant' is an understatement

that's because the sun is flat like the Earth -

I'm not trying to be contrarian here but it's pretty clear the GFS' QPF have been willfully overly prodigious at these longer termed aggregate sums. I'm not sure if that is true among all guidance; even if so, I suspect the GFS is the cult leader. It's certainly the Osama Bin Laden against seasonal change to warm season, in general... So in doing so, it's gotta consummately over amplify mechanism that rain, while conjuring up warm canceling synoptics etc. Re the former aspect... the GFS is always unbalanced with every wave space relative to all scales - I've noticed. speaking to the general audience here. It's not a hugely observable aspect but at a tedious, yet crucial scale, the model has more mass ending up in trough spatial dimensions, than it does in the coupled ridge. Not sure how it gets to that distribution, but I suspect it is because it's mass relay is too fast - wind speeds; which comes back to lowering heights too aggressively ( again ... small but noticeable to autistic nerds LOL ) in its physical processing.

I mean I'm looking at the NAM FOUS grid over BOS with - 2 to -4 C at 800 mb level for 48 straight hours on a May 10 model cycle. If we did ever plumb a sufficiently intense UVM core through that profile, it would bring fatties to the 1200' surfaces, and splashing cat paws to 800 ( sorry warm enthusiasts - don't blame the facts ) Luckily those projections from the GFS 5 days ago don't look to be worth a shit, else we'd really be entertaining at least 1200' blue QPF paint. On May 10-13th. In a May, yet again .. But, seein as we are not getting any kind of dynamic system capable of doing that, the May sun will probably make the lower levels oblivious to that 'what if' plausibility. I also wonder if there's some convective instability with that cold mid level.

It's been fun monitoring that beast all week. According to Spaceweather's front page info ... that spot mass rivals that which proceeded the great event in 1859 denoted as "Carrington" - not sure if that is a geographic location or a person but that Carrington Event is famous for setting primitive transformer stations on fire, and frying the early telegraph grid. As we all know ... it is theorized that a similar event today would basically "anesthetize the grid'"... if you get my meaning. Henceforth, no longer pan-dimension/general delivery of electrical services - i.e., everywhere. And telecom as we know it, hurled back to analog - if that even, because the physical framework of the grid itself may be rendered fubar, and transmission fails altogether. That would be a catastrophe. heh understatement. You know ... it's funny. Whenever this topic comes up, I am struck with this notion that - at least for humanity's saga - as conceit and hubris grows, fragility and peril that constructs is equally unknown.

We got really lucky down here along rt 2 ... 71 in near full sun and very little wind in zip RH. It's like that utopia feel to the air.

There kind of is though ... maybe this is hard to dispute when all sources the compute the teleconnections have some variation that does not argue this from CPC, That's actually huge signal for warmth over continental mid latitudes. What's puzzling is neither the operational runs, nor their respective ensemble means are being very representative of that warm signal. I was half thinking the CPC needed to 'recalibrate' or something, but other sources are similar. Maybe the numerical field is sort of detecting the non-linear wave function/forcing ... which is inherently always masked by the linear - what we see. In other words, "lurking" ... perhaps in wait of the linear to come toward constructive interference.. Supposition, but you can kind of see that 'trying' to happen if one pays attention to the run to run cinema over time. Which I am crushingly nerdy enough to do LOL

Yup, exactly

So yeah ... GFS seems to have come around to the pivot S idea with the weekend synopsis' .... sparing us inundating cold rains and mist... but, the trade off isn't very balmy either.

Yeah, I saw you mention the EML around the time I posted that Wednesday looked interesting. I think that was 4 ...might have been 3 days ago. You may recall, I was telling you that there was possible warm intrusion into CT and that the helicity in the area look impressive while there was also a jet acceleration running by exit/entrance style N of the warm front. So the pieces were certainly there. The EML in concert with these synoptic advantages and away we go.

We were stuck in the BD air mass all throughout the event...right into the evening, and couldn't be liberated from it until the whole system passed off and gave it no choice but to mix out. When that warned cell came through around 4:30 pm to our S ( Ayer Ma), we had dead still air slate gray sky down pour with massive rain drops but no thunder. Didn't even hear any distant low decible, probably because the dense cool air. That's all we got from anything yesterday. It was all about where the warm front penetrated - along and S of that boundary had a party.

No offense to Ryan but some of us mentioned that Wednesday looked interesting 4 days ago ... Folks are getting used to disregarding some posters. boo hoo LOL it's all good.

'Cept that "back in the day" ... it didn't typically snow in May. Lol It's become a leitmotif since 2000 where these May excursions into a severely regressed/transient cold atmospheres. Whether they succeed in producing snow in air, the can... This was far less common prior to that 2000, though yes ... not unheard of, either.

Possible physical mechanism for the west Pacific warm pool and other consequences found https://phys.org/news/2024-05-north-pacific-due-china-aerosols.html This is important. For example, "break away" ridge nodes, containing climate anomalous warm atmospheric plumes, then meander down stream of these Rosby Wave sources and cause havoc. In a separate study cites the principle cause for the mega heat wave in the Pacific NW in June 2021 to be such a plume that migrated into a position over the Pac NW, stalled and then festered under solar maximum irradiance of that time of year. It also most likely means something for seasonal forecasting; the ENSO correlations have been less stable/coherent to the winter time patterns, for example. It's entirely intuitive that there is some negative interference, slow moving, at very large scaled mass fields ...etc.

Started to hint at brightening up here at this end of Rt 2 in N-NE Mass but with those anvils now capping that'll pretty much close the book on any meaningful sun sparing the day here. Different world in CT/Western MA ... pretty classic SNE butt bangin' day. Tomorrow might actually be decent. I'm wondering if the models are too stingy with blue slots and sky lights given the general synopsis. I could see it being partly sunny mid day. That would also goose the T's a little too. Course, ...that could cause some pancaking.

A historic severe day in SNE is unfolding before our very eyes... Very hard to elevate our region to this high level/criteria of concern... Mesoscale Discussion 0702 – Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

cells firing off around the western end of the Pike

fascinating to watch. just in the last 10 minutes, the lower scunge lurched N across N CT. WF may be on the move 79 in HFD ... 60 in BAF...

yeah, that's how New England works there's 2 slices to the atmospere that apparently decouple entirely at times. when they do ... you get sat and obs and conventional metrics not exposing the lowest layer below the 'floor' https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined that field of blasting cu is passing right over the closed circulation like there's nothing there.

Watching the hi res vis loop this hour and comparing that to surface obs through upstate NY, there seems 0 way to prevent the warm front from blasting in. yet, it won't move. ah yes. New England at it's physical finest

25 to 30 deg temp variance between W CT and NE MA

which means nothing if no one knows where 'here' is ? lol - I'm one to talk. But I do say my town. Are you "can'tconnectadick" ? It looks like warm sector intrusion by sat.