Typhoon Tip

Nice GFS -enhanced hallucination off the EC in the chaos range. That whole entangled train wreck out there is completely fabricated by the physical processing emergence - there's no identifiable feed into that sytem, and given the total envelope of environmental, and modeled synoptic parameters, there's very little credence to a spontaneous cyclone driven by oceanic heat, either. This model just cannot leave ridges alone. This run exposes big brother constantly flicking ears.

We've had some weird cold shots in these recent Mays, people. I've seen and/or heard of snow being reported across multiple Mays since the year 2000, waay vastly more often than I ever did growing up in the 1970s and 1980s. That's not gaslight-able otherwise.

This is the related to the mantra I've been raging about for 15 or more years... The problem with Global Warming is that it does not have enough 'natural advocates' ... by that I mean, it does not appeal to the nature senses, which is what all biological organism use to judge their environments. Humans are capable of connecting discomfort to the abstraction of CC, but discomfort has yet to be truly registered. The majority population needs to actually be in fucking pain before they admit anything... Until then, just about everything and every sense of reality in how humanity carries on with their worldly and not so worldly realities, all of it, is dependent about a ways and means that has to change: we're asking them to change all that ... based upon something that is not registering. Failing that...5% of the general population is capable of projecting a dire end result and actually willing, therefrom, to response an appropriate action that prevents harm. 95% are instead waiting for the report to be obvious, at which time it is too late. Weeeeee! Simply put, people deny CC because they can, and are running with it .. because the combination of understanding CC ( how and implications ) is too vastly complex to readily understand, combined with not registering ( anyway) gives them a false/reinforced sense of abstinence to the crisis. But that's a digression... You're absolutely right about the system changes taking place before the registry of the 95% doomed -

I've noticed this will all storm logistics in recent years ( another new aspect ) that they come down to relative error management. Like, the extended range is too amplified almost always. But, then as the storm nears, the correction they did to attenuate was correct, buuut because PWAT is a burgeoning parametric due to you know what ...the storm than over-achieve relative to the weaker profile. I see this kind of two-step dance with other aspects in synoptic handling too. You get some back, or lost ( in either direction ) at relative scales.

Exactly what I just said, too. Yup. It's a 'cold purgatory' that doesn't mean snow. Take a seat at the table and eat your New England spring dog shit cursed cake - Re the ensembles... yeah, all three ens mean sources have been routinely warmer than their operational versions. The GFS ( as is typical for that model) has been the worst offender. The GGEM has had one or two runs that came close to 'filling in' the potential...but last night it Charlie Browned with a particularly big serving of said dog shit. Euro's essentially the same as the GGEM. It's that duping song and dance where these solutions are cold despite the warm heights

Maybe not, see the post I just made -

Yeah ... but subtle signs that -NAO may crop up are in play ... we need a longitude flow structure. The GGEM shows how to muck up warm outlook by buckling the flow as it's leaving the continent N/NE/E of Quebec into the Maritime. Result is strong confluence generating big fat wrap around high pressure and no warm air is getting in here if that happens. The other operational models are also doing something similar. GFS can't wait to abolish warm air as native bias about that particular model anyway, but the Euro too. Not a warm surface chart implied by this These operational runs are trying to enter a pattern ( if not seasonal ) transition. That requires evacuating the semi permanent SPV out of Canada ... It's a classroom in how these seasonal move intervals actually can cause us here in New England ... particularly eastern New England, to get cold relative to the pattern look. As the SPV ( or any trough for that matter) attempts to exit, there is an interval of confluence where the arriving continental changes impinges on the backs side ( confluence) and that sets off our idiosyncratic "atmospheric Labrador" conveyor. Everyone else east of 100W across CONUS balms... except here, we sometimes get stuck in a cold purgatory (no, not a snowy one - just hell). We have to watch for that. It's possible these runs are going too far with the trough amplitude through eastern Canada. If that alleviates in future cycles, there'll be less of that big cold elephant's ass looming over top with it's chilly marine rhea

In this group of clearly socially aware non-spectrum users ? I'm guessin' that's likely

Did I use the word "impossible" ? I said wondered off the ranch, unconstrained by chaos. less likely to verify given all possible outcomes.

It's one of the reasons why I mentioned to y'all over in the New England forum that I suspect spring is above normal - as in above the background climate signal to do so anyway. I do still believe however that mid march may experience a bit of regression over eastern continental mid latitude, after an interval of balm earlier in the month. Seasonal forecasting is not my forte - I duff my hat to you guys. That said, GLAAM isn't the only reason why I suspect that progression. The NAO domain may slip negative for a time and not appreciably weight the "GLobal" totality of the AAM. Afterward ... global heat burst part deux may already be underway by the end of the month - we'll see if our summer gets stunted for high temperatures again by converging SW Atlantic with Gulf inflow streams causing theta-e pooling like last piece of dung summer.

That run was also completely off the ranch wondering unconstrained chaos-driven waste of electron usage, too -

Fwiw ... family member in NJ has lawn greening with crocuses and tulips coming up - about 3 weeks ahead of schedule since she's lived there over nearly 20 years ( anecdotally).

You could just go with the ICON which brings almost zero snow to anyone

Yeah, I don't mean to "predict" a regression ... I mean, that reminds of those years where the blocking reared after early warmth blue-balled the warm enthusiasts when an early unfinished BJ balmed 'em all up and then left ... It's more about being leery of that potential.

Don't get me started on the "flood wick" that began setting last June ... 'Magine if a Mother's Day 2005 came back over a broader region than just Merrimack headwaters now? - changing the subject a little going down the flood talk but ( sorry ) I have a flood fetish in my dystopian dream book for tree tops and tele' poles sticking out of water with people sitting on roof-tops. LOL. No but I do find them fascinating. I've often thought ... our geology's overriding topography is very old and determined. It seems the run-out channels are so deeply established that once we get to a certain flood amount, it really can't get higher because the adjoining flood plains are fixed. The elevations rise out side of those, too much. The flood mass would have to be factors of 3 or 4, which then requires a 1,000 year return rate or something. Anyway, we don't "bible flood" that often. Humanity's taken to building towns and neighborhood amid the 1::200 year event zones, simply because that's just long enough to have verdant pastoral/usable/attractive land for a multitude reasons. But every 1000 years ...? About 7 or 8 years ago ... there was hired geologists doing well taps on my street and around this side of town. We set over the water shed off the old Military base, Fort Devens, which had a landfill that dump Military grade chemistry for decades in the middle part of last century. In this case, Arsenic 6 was suspected in the ground going down deep. SO, they were hired to sample to determine the extent of the issue before Ayer becomes the next Flint, MI. Turns out ... the town water itself ( which I am connected to thank goodness) is unaffected but any dude with a well around here is probably either down to 1 testicle or has grown a 3rd by now... While they were on my street ... I ambled out there with a cup of joe and struck up a conversation. The woman said, "You know ...the extracted material we are plumbing up in these tap wells all over this side of town is consistent with alluvial plainer material, going down some 90 feet." Her eye brow was raised over a subtle squint like she was working something out... Of course that drove me to ask further. "...Yeah that means this region spends a significant amount of it geological history under water. Probably, I don't know, once every 500 years?" SO Ayer sets in the heart of the Nashoba Valley. In fact, the river of the same name cuts through the township. This whole region is originally just one such verdant attraction - There's probably a lot of these types of lost regions that are in long wait of an extraordinary headline. Not just here in the Nashoba Valley. Concord has a river that is similar. So does Sudbury ..etc etc...

Bingo! It's a perfect "execution" loop

I'm looking at a modeled tapestry that fits the late Feb thru mid April leitmotif that goes back many winter season end-of-life scenarios Significant, if not major warm up, during the first week of March is gathering some presentation in both the modeled dailies, but also is backed by telecon spread/projections. As that breaks down ... the tropospheric bulk warmth that was generated by larger scaled feed-backs and increasing solar contribution et al, progresses out of the eastern continent and is delivered to higher latitudes. As it arrives up there ... it may superimpose over a background tendency for blocking to emerge ( ...no, I do not believe any said blocking is related to SSWs. Different discussion). This is where the outlook gets really dicey for warm enthusiasts around mid March. This could mean all kind of different possible things to the daily weather charts - there's no way to cogently speculate for now. Whatever comes of that, the light wind balmed out ridge utopia like the Canadian GGEM ... I would not guess that look remains the same after 7th ... 10th. In basic principle, unless 2012 is showing up ...it would be unlikely that persists, that early in the spring, anyway. I would suggest overall that the spring is above normal and that any possible mid March regression doesn't characterize total.

With SST's < 79 F in that area, and OHE at the perennial nadir, ... and just because it's at 384 hours when its doing that ( LOL ) ... it's largely more likely not a reflection of the environment, and more an indictment of the model physics itself. It's actually a good case study op for the modeler/engineers at NCEP, because it is at the boundaries of plausibility where the best testing opportunities for any model that predicts any system in nature ( for that matter) exists. Personally I suggest it is actually a better indicator for the characterization of the mid latitude circulation type. Because when you move a -PNA -related ridge tendency, mid and upper level, through the eastern continent over top in latitude, that naturally produces a favorable circulation realm over the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mex and the Bahamas - ..the GFS "might" be right about that general synoptic scaffold at the larger scale, within which it is then too fastidiously sensitive in spinning up cyclones when the baser physical parametrics, such as thermal states, are feeble like that.

Mary Jane ?

Yeah, again ... I just don't recall that activity - like me grandma always used to say, if you forgot what you wanted to say, it probably wasn't that important. Something similar applies to memory generation? ... those were probably forgettable. I was living on campus at UML; there may have been regional lucky little hit zones ... elsewhere or whatever. To me, that winter was the Dec twins, and the April 1st events - with a rat between.

GFS has been just frustratingly abstinent to it's own ens mean, both the numerical teleconnection/implication, and the spatial synoptic. Maybe it'll be right. The GGEM - fwiw - is really starting to balloon it's eastern ridge more into what said tele's imply it could. I've seen these do this over the years since the 'heat burst' phenomenon become something we have to start including into the manifold of shit we deal with, and as that time nears...that 576 dm ( impressive enough ) slowly ticks to 582. Or not...but I'm just saying the signals support waaaaaay more than the operational GFS has yet to even once take advantage of.

heh... notwithstanding our personal religions on the matter, either. lol

I always thought back to the 1996-1997 as being an odd year. I really don't remember much happening between the twins of Dec 1996, then the "April Fool's Day Blizzard" later that spring. Those two positive buster storms, happening in the same 36 hour window ... remove those and that winter ( based upon my experience) would have come down to the March 31/Apr 1st event. That was a disappointing season after that Dec put so much higher expectation in play. I was also a bit more naive then ... But I distinctly remember wondering with higher hopes, only to go some 75 days before a worth-while event happened again. But yeah ... one cannot "save a ratter" with a single storm, particularly if the ratting is very egregious. It's too much of a slope to climb. There's also a bit of personal druthers ( maybe ...) clouding my opinion here, in that if we've come this far and I sense the sun's return ...knowing that calendar and all that, the futility awareness turns me off to it.

I suspect the warm plumes that are materializing in the modeled 5, 10 .. 30hpa levels might be more caused by streamline forcing over (near/NW) of the Swiss Alps, as a deep western European trough activity is modeled. There's going to be elevating WAA occasionally delivered to higher atitudes immediately downstream of that phenomenon, anyway, but I wonder if it would enough alone; the forced ascent over the tall terrain bulges the tropospause and enhances, giving the allusion to something more in line with planetary wave intrusion. This appears similar to me, to what took place earlier this winter. It might not reflect the latter larger scaled planetary wave forcing as actually taking place. Sometimes we see a bright infrared cloud pattern over and immediately downstream of cordilleras? They're there so long as streamline continues to be force to elevation over the terrain. And, it can bulge the atmosphere to miles over even middling elevation mountain ridges. We know that planetary wave intrusion, at that scale, is needed to trigger the subsequent downward vertical motion field post the warm temperature 'burst' occurring ( hallmark of the arrival..). The wind direction reversal endemic with all that. But like early this season ...this latter activity wasn't abundantly clearly/coherently observed, and despite the exuberance of the posting social media-sphere (ha). These warm nodes I'm seeing in the 5 10 and 30 levels ( relative to normal thereof) appear more randomly distributed. I just suspect that what we are seeing is another terrain enhanced allusion to a phenomenon that may not be capable of triggering the total mechanical circuitry of the SSW, that which would lead to lower troposphere ( eventual) responses. But it's also important to realize the partiality of these events, too. It's less likely an all or nothing.

most likely the latter ... they guy openly admits lusting for from-unda funk