Kevin Reilly

Hoping Media got some rain today? I’m down in Florida a state of emergency was just issued. Should be an interesting weekend down here.

Two centers not colocated together

If I look at the GFS thinking the northern circulation is the one it’s latched on to we shall see in time.

Yep in Savanah Ga right now heading to Florida until August 11th. Water temp 89-92 along west coast.

Hey how about those thunderstorms today with hail that rocked the area how did that pan out?

I think in regard to rain and tropical threats this year that this is just the beginning for SE Texas sorry to say.

I agree. I think the models showing a bit of something on August 1st to 6th is kind of a precursor or warning of what is to come. Call it a false start the active period but the real active period begins around August 10th. August 1st to 6th is an appetizer sort to say.

Mowed the dusty grass here. I have not seen this type of dryness here since August and early September of 1999 or July of 1988 take your pick very dry. Also, anyone noticing the smoke today in the sky pretty evident. I think Sosa lost the ball in the white skies today at second base.

6z gfs onboard for tracking first 10 days of August. I’ll be in Orlando August 1st to 11th then heading to Charleston SC so I’m watching this. I’ll be driving so just make sure I’m at full most of ride as needed. Driving down from SE Pa.

THATS where the Euro had development 0z run Wednesday however did lose it last nights run.

It probably will be because I’ll be down in Florida. It will be dry down there instead and wet here.

Just getting ready for Winter of 2024-2025.

Hurricane Floyd hit Delaware County very hard on September 17th, 1999, with serious flooding 10-15" of rain as it ran up along the cold front as a 45-mph tropical storm just a few miles offshore of the South Jersey coast moving NNE at 35 mph.

This is a typical outcome after a long dry period AKA 1999 Floydd

Moderate to heavy rain here last 30 minutes now tapering down some clear skies to the east and northeast now. 73.8f humidity 91% dewpoint 71f. Sun about to pop out here wonder if that heats things back up for more development shall see. Total rainfall in the gauge = 0.52"

Absolutely nothing to show for any of the rain happening now. We have a light outflow boundary wind blowing from the east NE from Philadelphia. Maybe we get lucky and get an outflow boundary collision for development.

So, here we go..... Heavy rain 20-30 miles north and northeast..... Heavy rain 30-35 miles southwest and zippo here getting pretty frustrating. Flash Flood Warning Philadelphia and Montgomery county in PA and Burlington and Camden County in NJ 84.2 humidity 76% feels like 93f ... a few peeks of sun

"following our fairly wet stretch of weather this month." Meanwhile only 42 miles to your southeast we have struggled to pick up 2.56" since May 25th! The only word that I can give the precipitation distribution for the entire area Harrisburg to Trenton to points south and east to Southern Delaware and Maryland .....eratic! Great information and write up as usual Paul! Thanks, from this section of Central Delaware County but I will tell you we are experiencing flash drought conditions and from the look of the landscape Moderate Drought. Springton Reservoir along Route 252 in Upper Providence and Marple Townships is dropping steadily the past few weeks. We know what will happen later August and September.... East Coast riding Hurricane! It's the La Nina way!

only 0.47" here and that came in 35 minutes late last night which the models did not predict at all. Otherwise that is 2.56" since basically Memorial Day Weekend.

only 0.47" here and that came in 35 minutes late last night which the models did not predict at all. Otherwise that is 2.56" since basically Memorial Day Weekend.

zippo here not a drop... rain continues to dance around the area drought loves drought.

calling cards for winter ..... that will be this year's death snowfall band. That area loves dynamic bands in summer and winter.

Just had a very light shower some activity developing very weak boundary moving through. Looks like movement is east-southeast at about 20-25 mph. Looks like a weak cell just left Media, another NE Philly moving SE into Burlington and Camden County. Yet, another just north of Lancaster and I-76 that one looks pretty strong also moving east-southeast. Anything would be great for me here in Media. While down in Sea Isle last week we got a whopping 0.15" the whole week while others got 1-3" of rain.

This is actually climatologically the slow part of Hurricane Season most years take a look there is a dip that shows up over the years from about July 5th to July 30th before it ramps up again. This is the part of the season when we hear others say we may need to take the number of named storms down or don't let your guard down it only takes one landfalling Major Hurricane to make it a memorable Hurricane season. The facts are this in many years in July we typically see a robust Saharan Dust Layer and well that is exactly what we have in the wake of Category 5 Beryl which actually signaled the change and allowed the Saharan Dust to move south and west from Africa which is totally normal. My guess is that the Atlantic wakes up again by August 10th or so looking at all global factors namely the uptick in activity in the Pacific which in time does have an impact on the Atlantic in time.

Zip here at the beaches and that is what we will get. At least here in Sea Isle City weak lightning west.