Windspeed

While we're all going to be looking to the NW Caribbean and GOM for potential development into the weekend, currently there is a nice AEW south of the Cabo Verdes forecast to make its way across the MDR this week. It's not in a horrible environment at the moment, but conditions are only marginal across the MDR. Some SAL and stable air mass to contend, but it bears watching.

Linda is a sheared cyclone, no doubt. But how on Earth is that not a classified TC? It has a closed low level vortex and ASCAT has TS and Gale force winds. Also, Linda has produced nice bursts of convection over the LLC the past 24 hours. Boggles the mind...

This thread.. and I absolutely agree with it. What the hell has the CPHC been doing the past 24 hours?

Yeah NYC and areas just north are in the pivot of a nasty band.

Grace's remnant surface trough is redeveloping into a cyclone SSE of Cabo San Lucas. Explosive convection is persistent and likely to regenerate a closed vortex at this rate. This will get a new name if reaches TS strength even though Grace is the source of the disturbance. Per WMO rules, a tropical system must remain classified between basins to retain its original name.

NOAA2 is en route so we should get a sampling of Henri despite the earlier AF Hurricane Hunter abort.

New England regional subforum has the hot thread. Makes sense since that is where it will be making landfall and the forum kind of rose out of the ashes of EasternWx. The tropical subforum threads are hotter when its a purely tropical and subtropical latitude event. This system isn't exactly going to make people "OMG!!" at any point from an intense hurricane aspect, outside of some kind of unforeseen atmospheric phenomenon. I should clarify Henri is still a dangerous threat, but more from a hydrological event. A Gloria or '38 it aint. Edit: Now watch since I made a that snooty insulting comment about Henri above, it drops 20 milibars over the next 6 hours.

I realize this thread is being neglected somewhat with several busy regional (PA/NY/Mid-Atlantic/NE) forums with a landfalling Henri. At any rate, Henri is now Hurricane Henri. The third Atlantic hurricane and the first time since 2012 to have three this early. Kind of a surprising stat on the latter there as we've had some busy seasons since 2012.

6z GFS does keep a fairly steady motion into landfall. The distance between 6 hr positons doesn't decrease too much until Grace is inland. Still, that is at least 12 hours over decreasing thermodynamic support. I'm not sure how much baroclinic influence the binary interaction could give during that time for convective support to mix down 700-850 hPa level winds. Could surprise but obviously the biggest threat is flooding, which has been and should continue to be overstated.

It's not that bad considering the simulation of binary trough interactions vary. Even slight variance and position a few hours post initialization can lead to big differences 24-36 hrs out in capture, recurve, slow down, landfall point, etc. These are just difficult to model and forecast.

Still a good bit of ocean left to cross as well. Should be a pretty hurricane at landfall. Josh is at the forecast landfall to punch the core. Looks like Grace is going to be a sexxy beast afterall.

Yeah, Grace has never been graceful with respect to symmetry, much less an eye. That may be about to change.

You misfired, sir.

Further west track may be faster motion into landfall as well due to better steering influence of the mid-to-upper trough. The pure NE landfall is more of a slow-down prior to landfall. But it's a little too early to know for sure on these interactions.

Impressive convection but the structure is taking on a shape that doesn't look conducive for rapid intensification. At least for now. Unless that improves, despite the cold cloudtop signatures, slow strengthening is on the menu into landfall. Good shot at a at solid Category 2 here.

Also, recon found that Grace has reorganized its core and that it is contained within the deepest convection. The convection just hasn't expanded much to the south. Still, Grace is in a more favorable environment than pre Yucatán it seems. Also a mid-level eye feature looks to be forming where recon found the low-level vorticity maximum. Have to watch that closely.