Windspeed

Was just about to post this. Looks like we're in wobble mode with evolution via strong convective bursting around the eyewall. That being said, it looks as if Ida is still on the east side of the ensemble guidance.

There is no guarantee Ida will be a small-sized hurricane in 24-48 hours range. Yes, Katrina was unusually large. But based on angle of approach, if Ida rapidly intensifies tomorrow and evolves moderate-sized core, it will have a full day to build wave action and increase fetch. It is an exponentially more dangerous surge threat than Charley. That hurricane only had a 5 nm wide eyewall, 15 nm outer eyewall and very little (6 hrs) of maximum intensity lead time to build significant surge. It's sharp turn / angle of approach also mitigated surge. We cannot downplay the surge potential here. This is a very dangerous situation for anyone outside those flood walls. It is hopeful they work as designed and Ida tracks far enough west to mitigate the highest surge there.

Yeah the core is holding together fairly well. Could there be a bit of lag after it moves off the coast? Sure. But it likely won't take too long to ramp up.

RE: KBYX (Key West) Radar...

Humans...

A PRE may be setting up over SE LA ahead of Ida. The upper trough is increasing lapse rates with significant ice particles bring detected due to strong updrafts. 2-3"/hr rates is going to kickoff a big head start for inland and coast flooding for low lying areas well before Ida outer bands begin their impact.

These things are chaotic and hard to pin down. Certainly too unpredictable to forecast structure and size with accuracy. I mean, interaction with Western Cuba could also backfire by increasing/broadening the size of the core vortex, leading to a larger eyewall during intensification over the east-central GOM. Anyone's guess and it would just be that, a guess.

Isla de la Juventud / Isle of Youth is very low elevation. It is also surrounded by the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic Basin. It might slow intensification but the core bands will be able to pull sufficient evaporation that it should avoid disruption. The western region of Cuba would be more of a deterrent to intensification or at least halt it until it clears it and moves into the SE GOM. There could be some disruption over Western Cuba.

Horrid timing...

Is that one of your petPVs?

Pretty impressive organization since last night. Deep convection over the LLC. Appears to be stacked. Core appears to be developing. Wonder how much intensification Ida can undergo prior to Isle of Youth and Western Cuba here? Good odds of being a hurricane by first landfall. Also looks like the GFS operational runs the past few days were not overdoing intensification trends prior to Cuba.

I usually am lit. But mine wrath for the NAM all these years was just too much to contain. Everyone have a good night. I'll post more thoughts tomorrow when time allows. Peace.

STOP POSTING THE NAM. kthx.

No, it is 100% misleading and unwarranted if you understand that model's purpose and use. Yet you still posted it. This is on you. Period.

Oh I am, I just will never understand. I can get people who simply do not know better. But to basically disclaimer it and then post? Grrr...

Then for God's sake, why post it? Just, why? For all the reasons x10000000, why post the bloody damn NAM, take it seriously and comment about it? Why do people continue to do this?

You will rarely get a better (or worse in perspective) synoptic setup like this for a NW moving major hurricane in the Gulf. The hype is warranted. The hope is hitting rural swamps. Hype away and hope for the best.

I meant diabatic heating. Sorry, been a long day.

Yes, it's very possible recon samples wind data for a tropical storm northeast of the low level circulation. We'll see..

An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.

I'd imagine the direction of approach is worse for surge and flooding. But it's still not a scenario in stone. Obviously intensity, size, forward motion / speed, fetch while over the central GOM. We can go on....