Windspeed

The ECMWF is obviously catching everyone's eye here. It's important to remember that placement of ECONUS trough vs WAR with regards to land interaction beyond the Antilles is still beyond the midrange and clearly subject to change. That being said, if the door shuts for potential Sam around 150 hrs to escape poleward, then there is the potential for some type of phase interaction setup that would come into play. This would be dependent on amplification of the WAR and position/timing of Sam. This type of pattern isn't one of a recurve but of a TC being captured and driven very quickly into the high latitudes around the stationary mid-trough parked into the ECONUS interior. Again, way too far out only to speculate, but there it is... The strong block over ECAN is heading downstream towards New Foundland, which would spell trouble.

Jim Edds' Haiyan video should be right up there with the aforementioned. He was submerged in a pool inside the eyewall.

I think it is becoming pretty obvious here that the inner eyewall of Ida was very intense and clearly upper Cat 4 intensity. Was it as intense as Michael? No. But this particular gust was definitely supportive of 150+ sustained at the surface. It is really just a matter of luck that Ida's inner eyewall did not strike a populated community at landfall.

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I think some of this is due to regardless of MJO phase placement or status of the WAM, when there is a pronounced -AMO, it tends to keep CV long-trackers somewhat in check. There is a balance though. All it takes is for a subtle swing to +AMO or similar cooling of the upper-central Atlantic pool to kick in more MDR favorability. We may see something close over the next month. Additonally, there should still be a robust wave train coming off Africa late into October at least. So again, as has been the recent trend over the last half-decade, we may see a loaded back end to the season. A couple of interesting tweets that suggest such potential:

Way too much uncertainty. The models are iffy on how the pattern amplifies down stream with respect to 96L. When that system lifts out, the remaining upper PV could easily get squashed depending on timing and intensity of 95L leaving it behind with an ECONUS ridge to build heights over the WATL. I do not think we'll have a good idea of potential long-term track until we get into the midrange here. The resulting TC from 95L could be anywhere from Bermuda to Jamaica. It's really just a guessing game at this point.

Ugh..

Center of the LLC keeps sliding parallel to coast, even if temporary. Fascinating how intense convective updrafts can bend and slip/jump the vortex down shear. But if the updraft within the eye band relaxes the slightest, it may succumb to upper horizontal flow and shear off, resulting in low-to-mid level steering flow regaining motion. Perhaps just enough motion to finally get the vortex inland.

You're calling me out for meteorological discussion. Piss off.

I don't like an eyeband dragging a metropolitan area, period. Nice boneheaded comment though.

Yeah it may be a "half'cane", but the northern band that is dragging the shoreline is brutal. Hopefully this gets punched hard by westerly 400-300 hPa flow to shear off that northern eyewall before it reaches the Galveston area.

About as clear a reformation as you're ever going to see and neat to have it visualized on quality radar. Interestingly, though shear is negative on the vortex due to tilt, in this case it will have bought Nicholas more time over water since the LLC that formed last night was very near to landfall. The new LLC forming under or closer to the MLC is going to be further NE. Still a sheared system though. The anticyclone is too far south of Nicholas. Whether a strong TS or minimal hurricane, this is still all about the heavy rain and flooding potential.

Looking for if/when it can develop a core. If a core does develop with enough lead time prior to land interaction or an increase in westerly 300 hPa flow, then we have a shot at getting Hurricane Nicholas. If the system struggles to develop a core, then it likely follows forecast guidance for intensity closely. That's the uncertainty that the TC models will struggle with, with respect to intensity, for at least the next 24 hours.

Larry still looks impressive on satellite. I thought it would look more devoid of cold cloudtops over the core at this point. Labrador province may actually see hurricane force winds. Especially given the fast forward motion + winds still mixing down via convective bands.

Larry has gained significant speed in forward motion. The core has moved over the cool Labrador Current, however, interaction with the strong mid-to-upper trough, baroclinic forcing and cooler upper tropospheric temperatures are allowing convection to persist. Larry may not weaken below hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Really, the core doesn't look that bad at all given extra-tropical transition has begun.

Yes, it's a pretty significant change into the midrange. It's just one operational run but there has definitely been a trend for something organizing and steered west across the MDR. The modeled pattern does not support a recurve so whatever would hypothetically develop would have to be watched for the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. You can see this clearly with stronger WAR 500 dm heights extending over the SECONUS.

Definitely going to be their worst hit since Odile. Of course Odile was a Category 4. But this will still pack quite a punch being a strengthening cyclone. Interesting to see what Josh samples.

Olafs' eyewall looks to be intensifying right into landfall here. Cabo San Lucas is definitely in for a wild night / morning.

Hurricane Olaf has developed the dreaded pinehole eye and is forecast by the NHC to get dangerously close to Cabo San Lucas tomorrow. Hope this does not rapidly intensify prior to any land interaction there.

Agreed. My post is intended to give a ceiling for any potential reintensification. It would still be tough for Larry to regain major hurricane status given its broad windfield. Most likely it may just become more efficient at mixing down winds to remain a hurricane. Perhaps regain Category 2 intensity at best. Current maximum winds on the 11AM AST advisory is 90 mph sustained.

Are those your tweets? I've interacted with your tweets a few times over the years. "yconsor", "jconsor", I suppose that didn't require much detective work there. lol.. At any rate, Larry is looking better on satellite today, even improved in a way that an eyewall may be rebuilding. Recon should be interesting. If a strong eyewall exists, those 100+ kt 850 hPa winds may start mixing down better. Additionally, Larry still has several days to traverse sufficiently warm SSTs for reintensification given that it will be moving at a quicker pace. Shallow OHC, even at 27°C will support sufficient lapse rates in a large hurricane if it is moving fast enough and has adequate baroclinic support, which it looks like Larry will be given excellent support. Think Lorenzo in 2019. It was large and yet with excellent atmospheric dynamics pulled off Cat 5 intensity with shallow ~27°C SSTs. Larry has a larger/broader circulation than Lorenzo however, so I do not think it could pull off high end intensity of Category 4, but it certainly could tighten the gradient enough to regain major hurricane status.

Not mid-level shear though. This is favorable upper level divergent shear in the exit region of a digging upper trough. Just saying it wasn't in an unfavorable location for continued strengthening.

Larry's size is now what is impressive here. Yeah, yadda yadda Cat 5 stuff. But this is a true beastly maritime cyclone, period. Ridiculous long period wave heights being generated by this monster. This is the stuff of nightmares for shipping interests.