Windspeed

This is the best developed AEW we've seen so far this season and I believe it will be the one to watch going forward. Already possess a very robust circulation around the embedded low. It is also at a low latitude for when it exits Africa. Should be south of the Cabo Verdes.

We somehow lost a big dump of fantastic meteorological threads. It is such a shame all that historical discussion is gone. Sure, there were plenty of bad takes. But we were frequented by some really good experts and mets, and blessed a plethora of knowledge.

Really depends on where (if) a low can close off within the axis for potential downstream intensification. The overall wave is just a little too far north where SSTs are probably too marginal for significant development. However, if any circulation develops further south, it will have a much better envelope for development. I am kind of meh on this for now. We shall see...

[emoji849]

It's 300+ hrs out. Global OPs are going to fantasy 'cane a gazillion times during climatological peak. Then lose them. Then bring them back., etc., etc., ad nauseam. Who cares... Focus on the ensembles. Or go ahead and continue posting 384 hr maps because, Sept. 3rd, really? Ugh... Edit: Wait, I just noticed that was Idub who posted that. I feel Rick Rolled.

Beating a dead horse about this on every seasonal thread this time of year, but long range operationals are only good for glancing at their simulated patterns and not worth latching onto specific system fodder. That being anything 200 hrs out especially. The ensemble suites are far better for eyeballing potential systems that have not developed yet. That being said, it does look like things are about to come alive, right on cue. It still looks like things will become more favorable after the 21st. And there is notable low-shear envelopes across the basin to play with. We shall see.

That is in the mid- levels however. Though may help to relax the screaming Azores to Saharan link in 700hpa easterly jet for those trains of SAL intrusions. At any rate, we typically see wave breaking slow down around early August as WAR heights increase. If anything, this particular Azores low may allow the ITCZ to gain some latitude before SPHP cell rebuilds. Watching these perturbations play out for years prior to the MDR/CV flips. I think there might be some slight potential for MDR development next week, but I'm not really expecting any substantial increase in activity until around the 21st. The environment is just not there yet. That AEW the models have latched onto needs to have a really good low-level moisture envelope around it and a well established surface low. We'll see in a few days...

A difference of 20 ACE is nothing even if technically it drops below the loose definition of a hyperactive season. CSU only lowered their totals to 18 and still calls for 4 major hurricanes. I do think forecasting a hyperactive year is a bit of a gamble. Those years seem to have some atmospheric "luck" where everyhing just falls into place near to the ASO stretch beyond even what long range modeling can precursor. But there was scientific reasoning based on long range indicators back in May-June that suggested a hyperactive season was possible. We've also been in an above-active stretch for the ASOs of 2017-present. But who knows, we've had some crazy years not get going until the last week of August when environmental conditions improved rapidly. 2004 and 2017 come to mind, not that I am suggesting anything like those. An active ASO seems reasonable still and I like the updated CSU and NOAA forecasts here.

And right on queue, here comes the NOAA update as well. Still calling for an above-average outlook.

^Essentially a small drop in seasonal numbers and about 20 points of total ACE, but still calling for an above normal, even very active season, but no longer calling for a hyperactive ASO.

Training cells are definitely a concern into the evening. Some portions of Sullivan Co. are pushing 2" already. Hopefully this convection can lift over the Apps. in a hurry.

Small cells keep passing over each hour but heavy rates with each one. Ground is pretty saturated. If coverage starts to expand this evening and train over the region tonight, I expect there will be some flooding streams. MWX just put out an advisory as well...

lol, someone hurry up and notify Dr. Klotzbach that he needs rejustify and explain his numbers again for the ASO on July 26th. There is a climatological genius on AmericanWx that demands it. [emoji849]

The Sub-Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is commonly active during peak Summer months due to positioning of the Azores semi-permanent subtropical ridge placement. Azores ridging tends to be strongest May through August and until it retrogrades west with an increase in western Atlantic (WAR) 600dm heights, which generally takes hold by September. It's generally back and forth in August leading into ASO ridge placement. Therefore, it's quite common to see lifted Saharan dust get pulled across the Atlantic basin and MDR when Azores ridging and Saharan ridge are strong and conjoined. We do still see plumes advance as late as September, but waning during peak CV/MDR portion of the Atlantic tropical/hurricane season. So nothing out of the ordinary about SAL so far this year. And yes, SAL can definitely have a negative effect on tropical activity in the MDR when present and particularly strong.

Thanks for the correction. Yes, the ENSO index hit +.7 in August '04, so technically a weak Nino. No idea why I thought that was a Nina year. We had some powerful MDR long-trackers that season though with the strong +AMO. Essentially an ENSO index around neutral to slightly positive or weak has been in place during some very hyperactive years, so there does not have to be a strong -ENSO/La Nina in place for the Atlantic to produce them, though certainly having a decent +AMO is ideal.

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer.

If I am making a call at this point, I think the CSU forecast analysis for this season is still in-line with predeterministic long-range modeling. I do not foresee a slow increase into the meat of September, but instead a "flip of the switch" by late August that unleashes a hyperactive stretch that's busy busy busy well into October. Hopefully there will be some lingering troughyness in the ECONUS that can recurve potential TC threats, but if these TCs are traversing the Caribbean, anything is on the table including GOM/Florida systems. Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

RE: Seasonal precip and SST ensemble anomalies for the height of the season, August-October. This pattern suggests very active MDR-Caribbean AEW tracks with greater instability/lift in the tropical versus subtropical latitudes that would be prone to sinking air/ridging. This may be indicative of CV long trackers at a lower latitude. It may also be suggestive of more southerly TCGs and a higher threat to Caribbean and Central American landmasses than the ECONUS. But short-term pattern changes for tracking are not easy to forecast in the long range, (i.e. a specific digging trough vs amped ridge here and there). All in consideration, this isn't the look you want if you're targeting a dead MDR/CV stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season. Again, per the earlier discussion, whether we have Mid-Atlantic/New England threats doesn't bank on whether we have a hyperactive season. The Carribean through Central-American landmasses may be under the gun this year. And obviously anything that slips into the WCARIB/Bahamas increases potential for the SECONUS dependant on timing of WAR heights.