Windspeed

Definitely going to be their worst hit since Odile. Of course Odile was a Category 4. But this will still pack quite a punch being a strengthening cyclone. Interesting to see what Josh samples.

Olafs' eyewall looks to be intensifying right into landfall here. Cabo San Lucas is definitely in for a wild night / morning.

Hurricane Olaf has developed the dreaded pinehole eye and is forecast by the NHC to get dangerously close to Cabo San Lucas tomorrow. Hope this does not rapidly intensify prior to any land interaction there.

Agreed. My post is intended to give a ceiling for any potential reintensification. It would still be tough for Larry to regain major hurricane status given its broad windfield. Most likely it may just become more efficient at mixing down winds to remain a hurricane. Perhaps regain Category 2 intensity at best. Current maximum winds on the 11AM AST advisory is 90 mph sustained.

Are those your tweets? I've interacted with your tweets a few times over the years. "yconsor", "jconsor", I suppose that didn't require much detective work there. lol.. At any rate, Larry is looking better on satellite today, even improved in a way that an eyewall may be rebuilding. Recon should be interesting. If a strong eyewall exists, those 100+ kt 850 hPa winds may start mixing down better. Additionally, Larry still has several days to traverse sufficiently warm SSTs for reintensification given that it will be moving at a quicker pace. Shallow OHC, even at 27°C will support sufficient lapse rates in a large hurricane if it is moving fast enough and has adequate baroclinic support, which it looks like Larry will be given excellent support. Think Lorenzo in 2019. It was large and yet with excellent atmospheric dynamics pulled off Cat 5 intensity with shallow ~27°C SSTs. Larry has a larger/broader circulation than Lorenzo however, so I do not think it could pull off high end intensity of Category 4, but it certainly could tighten the gradient enough to regain major hurricane status.

Not mid-level shear though. This is favorable upper level divergent shear in the exit region of a digging upper trough. Just saying it wasn't in an unfavorable location for continued strengthening.

Larry's size is now what is impressive here. Yeah, yadda yadda Cat 5 stuff. But this is a true beastly maritime cyclone, period. Ridiculous long period wave heights being generated by this monster. This is the stuff of nightmares for shipping interests.

The small low-level vorticity maximum that developed is what got this going. Given another day or two, yadda yadda, would have probably been a hurricane.

Just edit your original post for the thread and change the title.

@SnowenOutThere If you start a tropical thread, you own it and keep it updated. [emoji16]

Looks like TS Mindy. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Is not the NYC Post a mongering tabloid? *looks at the owning company* lol, yeah...

Just satellite estimates. Unsure if the Japan-based recon project from several years ago is still a thing. ADT unfortunately isn't the best with small 'canes/typhoons that have pinehole eyes. Hence 945 mb / 115 kts at present via latest estimates. JTWC notes this issue in its prognostic reasoning:

A little overzealous over night at a TS being "likely" in my post but there does appear to be broad low-level circulation with banding developing on the southeast side. There's assymetry and subtropical characteristics. Recon is not scheduled. NHC gives a medium chance of genesis. It's not got a lot of time prior to the panhandle but could gain enough organization to get classified.

Looks like a low-level circulation is forming tonight. Quite evident on shortwave too. Good call on the thread. A tropical storm by landfall is looking likely now.

Larry's structure has improved some this evening thanks to some convective bursting rotating around the eyewall. Larry's forward motion appears to finally be increasing as well. It's possible that Larry's core may have gained enough forward motion to counter the rate of significant upwelling. Not expecting anything impressive as far as reintensification tomorrow, but that is usually when surprises occur [in my case]. If nothing else, perhaps it might restrengthen enough to avoid losing major hurricane status the next few days. It is barely a Cat 3, and though 850 hPa winds are still between 100-110 kts, the SFMR data was perhaps only supportive of 90 kts. Could have been undersampling, but, at any rate, Larry appears to be holding its own if not rebounding a bit tonight. This remains an enormous hurricane in size and wind field, which should act as a deterrent to significant strengthening.

Well so much for the Atlantic Basin (Larry) overcoming the Western Pacific's ACE. Chanthu is about to become violent and will likely evolve into one of 2021's most intense long-tracking tropical cyclones. The rate of organization is outpacing forecast trends and it looks like this has a good shot at becoming a Super Typhoon. It will have a very favorable environment for rapid intensification.

Normally they are stable and less susceptible to them, however, Larry has a big issue here with upwelling due to its slow rate of motion. The circulation is already enormous and strong outer banding is moving over better heat content in the northwest seas leading out ahead of Larry's core. That's leading to two things here. 1) Less thermodynamic support for eyewall convection by the time it reaches those waters and 2), subsidence, which is helping to erode the eyewall leading to it being unstable. If Larry would pick up forwarding motion that would help alleviate its problems. But that's not going to occur in the short-term. There is still very warm SSTs east of Bermuda on its track. But the NHC has dropped down the intensity guidance.

Larry's forward motion appears to be slowing. I suppose we're going to find out just how much shallow TCHP can support a 'cane this large. Another EWRC is underway. But Larry is not in any hurry to the NW on its current heading at the moment. Granted there is still plenty of deeper OHC to the northwest. Really at this point it's just a visual experiment on if Larry can maintain enough thermodynamic driven convection to fuel the even larger eyewall that is forming. There is a rather large region of 29°C SSTs northwest on its current heading. Should be enough to keep it a major hurricane through Thursday.

Larry is pumping up the Atlantic's ACE. Based on its forecast alone, it should allow the Atlantic to overtake the EPAC and WPAC barring any potential development in those basins this week.

Dropsonde recorded 957 mb at 9 kts. 102 kt SFMR in the northern eyewall. Likely a bit stronger in the NE eyewall based on relative motion. So the satellite intensity estimates are performing well as is the NHC's best track intensity guidance.