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Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Windspeed
    Congrats to all that got snow. Especially the 4-7" variety. I might be just shy of 2" here south of Bristol. Not going to complain, it's pretty. But still waiting that 4-7" storm here though. Perhaps we get luckier in the coming weeks.
  2. Windspeed
    There is a nice band filling in SW to NE that should bring you some more, sir.
  3. Windspeed
    We've got some nice cloudcover right now over KTRI and 35° currently. Hoping the coverage can limit any significant temp gains. The high was forecast to reach 40°. But I don't think we'll make it. Also hopeful the 850 nose becomes quite limited. Anything to muster 3" totals for the event this evening. I am liking our chances.
  4. Windspeed
    Wow. That is newsworthy. He and his discussions will be greatly missed.
  5. Windspeed
    I would be ecstatic if this system could produce 3" for KTRI. Monday's system left a sour taste in my mouth. Models overdid the upper NE Valley regardless of the snow holes in the deformation band. But we're playing with much colder air this go around with entirely different flow aloft.
  6. Windspeed
    The last flake has fallen here. I think it is safe to say that this system underperformed for KTRI. I was thinking 3-4" in line with modeling and the MRX forecast, but I'll take my inch of cement and enjoy my day off. Congrats to those that scored. Hopefully this is just a tease for something better in the coming weeks.
  7. Windspeed
    South of Bristol, got stuck between two heavier bands just to our west and east for a while as the deformation pivoted. Though it is still snowing, I doubt we'll total 2" of accumulation. Still nice to finally get some decent snow so not going to complain at all. Much of SWVA, including the valleys are in the sweet spot of that deformation band. Wytheville, Blacksburg, Pearisburg, Roanoke, etc., are getting hammered.
  8. Windspeed
    MRX posted a video of that event. But I wish they would have noted that the surface temperatures had little impact on initial accumulation. It came down hard and fast and everything was covered within the first hour.
  9. Windspeed
    Starting to get excited. 2"/hr rates is no joke. If that heavy deformation band sets up, even if the strongest of the event only last 3-5 hours, that's a nice haul for NETN/SWVA. 4-6" for the upper northeast Valley seems possible with the higher elevations getting thumped. 8-12" looks doable for the Smokies, Banner Elk, Mt. Rogers, into the Blue Ridge.
  10. Windspeed
  11. Windspeed
    Yeah it is absurdly warm and muggy outside for 11AM in the Tricities. Sun is out as well.
  12. Windspeed
    This just came out but obviously with the caveats if/will supercells fire in the warm sector. If so it could be a bad evening.
  13. Windspeed
    Even an dusting would be a total win at this point as the Valley has had big nothing so far this season.
  14. Windspeed
    Too much logistical bs to overcome, and even if vaccinated, coming down sick is hell dealing with local unknowns, much less with figuring out how you're getting back. It is what it is...
  15. Windspeed
    Still a pandemic. I doubt anyone would be making the trip into the Philippines. At least I am aware of none.
  16. Windspeed
    This may have to be tabbed a special indicator by the survey crew, not unlike the ripped up hospital parking stops for the Joplin EF5, but this rebar enforced concrete foundation was annihilated at a home site in Bremen.
  17. Windspeed
    Looks like ground scouring can be seen near Bremen.
  18. Windspeed
    Potential mountain snow.
  19. Windspeed
    The problem with having a "Category 6" based on Dorian is the limitations of categorically confining a value of time and motion. Dorian was horrible regardless, but even worse due to its slow motion. You cannot underestimate how much the long duration of sustained Category 5 winds did to magnify the devastation. In reality, anything above 155 mph sustained that persists for a slow mover is going to be magnified. There is no need for a Category 6. If it's a fast moving intense hurricane, the damage is going to be less than a slow moving intense hurricane due to inevitable structural failure caused by prolonged wind force.
  20. Windspeed
    It's currently not tropical or subtropical. At present it is a mid-lattidutinal cold core bomb cyclone. Down stream it could gain subtropical characteristics however as it is forecast to move over the Gulf Stream.
  21. Windspeed
    Yeah, and just to clarify my post, I certainly am not bashing the official forecast. I also clearly thought this would even outperform their intensity forecast with my Cat 4 call. The environment did look primed for RI as a hurricane, not just initial development. But sneaky micro-regional atmospheric conditions, i.e., upper-level northerlies off the central American continent versus mid-level steering flow must have played out as a deterrent here. The structure is just taking way to long to evolve.
  22. Windspeed
    lol, and then marginal mid level shear and structural core issues had other plans it seems. Rick may not even reach Cat 3. Something something that whole forecasting intensity is hard bit. [emoji849]
  23. Windspeed
    NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.
  24. Windspeed
    Pretty impressive statistic here. I had thought the entire tropics, not just the Atlantic Basin, but globally, seemed too quiet. But no Category 3+ hurricanes in such a long period of time for early-to-mid Autumn is rare.
  25. Windspeed
    In early October, there were indicators of an active Caribbean around mid-to-late October. I had expected several more hurricanes including one more major hurricane by closing of shop in November. Well that appears to all be unlikely at this point. Beyond a marginal convective disturbance southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the basin appears to have shut down. Can't rule out one more hurricane but the potential is just not there for the time being.
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