Windspeed

It's not that bad considering the simulation of binary trough interactions vary. Even slight variance and position a few hours post initialization can lead to big differences 24-36 hrs out in capture, recurve, slow down, landfall point, etc. These are just difficult to model and forecast.

Still a good bit of ocean left to cross as well. Should be a pretty hurricane at landfall. Josh is at the forecast landfall to punch the core. Looks like Grace is going to be a sexxy beast afterall.

Yeah, Grace has never been graceful with respect to symmetry, much less an eye. That may be about to change.

You misfired, sir.

Further west track may be faster motion into landfall as well due to better steering influence of the mid-to-upper trough. The pure NE landfall is more of a slow-down prior to landfall. But it's a little too early to know for sure on these interactions.

Impressive convection but the structure is taking on a shape that doesn't look conducive for rapid intensification. At least for now. Unless that improves, despite the cold cloudtop signatures, slow strengthening is on the menu into landfall. Good shot at a at solid Category 2 here.

Also, recon found that Grace has reorganized its core and that it is contained within the deepest convection. The convection just hasn't expanded much to the south. Still, Grace is in a more favorable environment than pre Yucatán it seems. Also a mid-level eye feature looks to be forming where recon found the low-level vorticity maximum. Have to watch that closely.

Haha yes. I am still skeptical of hurricane intensity at landfall with Henri though. If it slows down as much as modeled, it's going to be falling apart. If the trough interaction is stronger or the mid level steering flow is a little stronger, then perhaps.

Grace has deep convection expanding about its northern semicircle. Recon may find a hurricane again by the time it gets there this morning. It has enough time to undergo some significant intensification today, but it will need to wrap that deeper convection around the southern periphery.

Yes. Laura had an awesome eye during the 24 hours leading up to landfall.

It's super impressive that Henri never decoupled. Total Joaquin job. A lot to be said about divergent shear, even when those values would decapitate most systems. The crazy instability driving just enough intense convection rotating up draft to keep the vortex tilted versus sheared off. Tomorrow will be more about a big change in evacuation away from the vortex versus impediment to the upper half.

A beefy impressive mid level vortex tilted away from the LLC. The convection looks amazing but its just not stacked yet.

Just taking a peek in here. Figured this's where all the action is tonight...

The mid-level vortex isn't decoupled from the low-level center, but it sure is tilted southward to the max.

Perhaps 5-6 hours at most from landfall. Another convective burst right over the center. Previous ones have relented including several healthy looking CDO features at times today. RI just isn't on the menu for the NW Caribbean this time. Some continued slow strengthening into landfall perhaps. The Cat 2 lock call I made this morning isn't looking so good. Probably going to end up a bust on my part unless.... Nope. Good night.

Sheesh, tired and totally looked at an older timestamp recon flight. At any rate, recon is in there right now:

A hectic day but a significant change in Grace since my last post. Grace not only has evolved a tight core, it has multiple CBs rotating around its eyewall. This is a visual sign that intensification is ramping up. Anxious to see new recon data. Grace being slow to evolve structurally today is going to be a blessing for the communities and resorts along the Riveria Maya. It may still begin a period of significant intensification prior to landfall.

SAL outburst is crossing the MDR. This should help suppress any AEWs during a period of limited activity following Grace and Henri. The next potential CCKW should be here around the first week of Sept. leading into peak. So we should have a quiet week or two at least barring any subtropical development or an overly strong AEW off the West African Monsoonal region.

Waiting on convection to pop on the SW side of the circulation. The VDMs have showed robust instability but so far it's been lacking coverage. Any delay this evening will be good for the Yucatán as that limits time for rapid intensification to kick in but of course this could change in short order.

Good thing we'll have recon. Despite the moderate shear values, Henri appears to be intensifying.

That's an anomaly map though. Yes, SSTs off the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts are running above climatological mean. However, that doesn't mean they're warm enough to sustain a slow moving Tropical Cyclone. There is a reason notorious New England strikes are generally associated with mid-to-upper trough interactions, phases and swift motion. They're carrying convective momentum and some baroclinic assistance while traversing that cold current. A hurricane strike for New England, even a strong one is quite possible, but we need the right setup scenario to unfold.

Grace just has that look now. That last VDM did have a nice temperature spike in the core with a robust vertical column developing. Should see some steady strengthening throughout the day. Obviously if we get an eye to clear out then RI becomes pretty much an expectation at that point. Starting to lean towards a Cat 2 lock at landfall and a major could be knocking on the door.