WEATHER53

A hobby has to be mostly rewarding 90% of this winter has sucked and has been poorly discussed and poorly predicted . Reevaluation is underway

Essentially we have broken and dull tools at our disposal. Active weather sells. All media types know that. They hype it. Then the hype spreads to “well we know what these indexes WILL do…oh, there’s a new index to try on” Humility works and bombast declarations don’t. The pronounced /hyped “mid to late Feb” was a travesty of misdiagnosis and arrogance . Instead of reality too many wishes are presented as likely occurrent reality. And the reality never arrives because it’s Always “15+ days away” I said in December the delaying pattern we were developing Had to change or we were in trouble . Much crying and chastising over that. I was right We need a new and different boat to float with.

Hourlies been missing and on and off but they are starting to fill the info in and are current now

Wild time today just se of Frederick. Sky turned summertime thunderstorm black between 3:30-4 and moderate rain by 4:15 with 8 easily audible thunder reports, two shook the house, brilliant flashes of lightning during daylight, and last bolt about 6:15 Ive gone summers where this might have been #1 but more like 2/3. No hail and winds moderate but not wild, under 30 gusts .

Multiple thunderstorms in Frederick since 4:15

See I’ve provided that about 5 times and even in last 36-48 hours after the most recent 6-120 hour bust but you all won’t read it. You flare up instead almost as if addicted SO For one last time Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10. The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply.. Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way. Lord knows plenty buy into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. if one is wedded to all is just fine now then sally forth. I recognize that to not be true and yes I say so and it bothers the huggers real bad but I have had and do right now have my suggestions for alternatives I’m not the genius who invented models so maybe go to some other real smart hands on the controls guys who actually want a better forecasting science

Volunteered the details many times and as recently as 36 hours ago. Not doing that over and over for people who feel utterly lost without myriads of useless example samples that don’t work and are worse than ever right now. Being observant and critical does not mandate a solution. That’s a gimmick. You have expressed your vote for more of the same

Lots of offerings of all these indexes that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem

DCA has artificially in place radiation prohibition Others don’t

Low of 25 and currently 42

We were at Ole Mink Farm in November and I think that’s 1500’ and Our house was 44 and rain Frederick 40 and rain and up there 33 /34 and snow and about an inch but probably snowed 4” worth

48.5 for a high with low of 26. I still have one full shade strip of snow left. 46 at 5pm and fell quick to 37 by 8:30 and 35.5 now That rock solid frozen clay soil 100% shaded prevents the melt

48 for a high and still solid dusting on full shade areas.

For the most part the majority of model supporters do not feel change is necessary. That should have taken another big hit this season

Only 15-30 days away. It’s become lunacy vs discussion. Reminds me of political sites where wishes and feelings overtake reality and outcome That’s a bad direction switch from just 5 years ago

Different things are now worth looking into so we can restore prediction reliability

2nd most drifting I’ve ever observed. 1966 number one

Other theories need study Earthquake effects. Volcanos both above and below sea level. Tsunamis . Shaking, sloshing and jolting the earth around may have taken a toll -Possible change in earth axis. Looking for more indexes to invent is wrong track

Half failed already and not looking promising for the second half This site needs some reality and not smoking the crack pipe of 15-30 days in the future constantly with a system that can’t really get 6-36 hours right.

46 for the high and 0.25-0.5 still left in full shade

Could have created a new thread but restrained. The Extremely Highly Touted Big time improvement mid to late Feb is already half way to failure. 45 fucking days of example samples (aka “models”) showed unwavering high pressure to our north with lows cutting under us. Now the same snake oil mechanisms are onto mid March.

We also over grasp at every new index theory that comes along Too many cooks in the kitchen and way too much micro scoping acting as if getting down to 1 mile by 1 mile enhances accuracy. It doesn’t, it’s like zooming your camera up too much and everything is blurry. Try more of a binocular approach instead of microscope and you won’t get overly specific errors. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough “close up” Since have asked for my suggestions-just gave Another one We have been unsuccessful in trying to “mathmetize” our way to betterment so we on our own resources can’t derive a solution. AI can likely develop something unthought of which perhaps combines in some of the successful elements of the antiquated floppy disk ways .

22F for a low and 7 consecutive hours of 25 or less. 36F currently

See I don’t have to have an answer for my ibservations to be correct. Not saying you are doing this but that question is basically a model hugger deflection if you feel status quo is sufficient then that’s just very different from my thinking. Every occurrent snowstorm this season has been 50% higher or lower than just 24 hours in advance was depicting I would venture that AI is going to formulate an analogue occurrent outcome data base from last 1-25 years and get into a more current and correct manner of evaluation, assessment and forecasts. Also ditch the 7+ day stuff, enhance the short term, destroy the floppy discs.

Getting uniformly into the 40’s was never a good forecast . I peaked quick today at 38.5 at 2:40pm and now down to 37.5. Winds and cold from snow cover still formidable mid Feb