WEATHER53

I think those are most cherished years. Sledding on driveway hill with wood fire going at top. Fun time for 12 year old.

We’ve had several excellent spurts of observations. Most weren’t as long or totally what we thought. We are approaching almost 30 days of this pattern and that’s way better than typical in many/most winters

The model scorecard is abysmal. If 100 meant they got precip types, amounts, start and end time, and temperatures correct and 0 meant all wrong then they are squarely at a 35 over the last 2-3 weeks. Luckily , every other scientific entity that we rely on does not operate at this accuracy level

There’s some unknown floating frozen in it along with now moderate freezing drizzle and 29.1.

10:30 29.3 and light freezing drizzle snow is around but just can get it here.

29 here after a high of 30.8 That bottom layer was loose at 3pm but not now

Models are just tools Like a pair of plyers for painting or a paintbrush for hammering in nails-Tools

2am obs 28.5F 16DP. I think we get a 3-5 degree temp drop with steady onset. Light greens dried up over me. Can we see how far down snow makes it?

Man the clouds are moving. Fully clear to fully cloudy really fast . Gonna hazard 40mph?

How much for Philly And Sleet is like having a hot sister Both got rolled out in last 24 hours! Good times !

And this afternoon was not 52 for a high with a preceding 35 low.

202-589-1212 but I’m not on until tomorrow

I talked him out of it. Be nice now.

M*tt i have not read anything for hours so will catch up but I think you say you never like it when precip shoots up into PA from our west and then curls eastward all the way to far eastern PA and well east of DC at that point! did I get it right? do you have that concern tonight if I did ?

That’s why outcome analogs should be the method and not theoretical physics. Very good data since 1960. 60 years. Let’s say there are 3 Miller As per season, 180 sample size. Break those 180 down to 1. The low passes within 30 miles of Atlanta. 2. The low is more than 30 miles north of Atlanta 3. The low is more than 30 miles south of Atlanta then overlay that with 1.The high is 30.30 or higher 12 hours before onset 2.The high is lower than 30.30 You will get a decent sample set of 10-20 matching outcomes in each category. No wailing about sample size, the outcomes are what they are When you take #1 on the storm and #1 on the high and 20 instances arise and 15 times DC got 3” or more then there is your model replacement When you take #2 and #2 and 22 instances match and 16 times DC got rain then there is your new and improved, outcome based, non model forecasting. The will is not there mostly due to entrenched commitment to status quo and embedded money issues. i promised you all I had a solution and not just bitching. Let the naysay begin.

All bases covered.

This time it’s sunny beforehand . Good strong well located high and not some too Far East high already moistening up and we were cloudy

Depends on Pittsburgh and Boston It’s better this time. 30 in Pittsburgh and 19 in Boston is shit for DC. Other way around just fine

How’s the confidence meter?

Ok thanks

I think Bowie’s wife was.

But the situation does favor us. High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30

2-6

The high pressure looks really good, finally not so Far East, 30.40 into PA is great for us.

Earlier you showed the -41 departure at DallasFtWorth Thinking of DCA I think since DCA became the site 1994s 8 and -4 is the coldest for -33 departure for then. Second cold Sunday Feb 1982 is close with 10 and -5 . Those two pretty much stand alone.