WEATHER53

Where is the arctic front now?

When the river is frozen or at 32/33 the same thing happens. It’s also not in a River, it’s mostly surrounded by parkland with River to ne-e-se and mostly undeveloped land mass otherwise except due west. Something known as a Parkway runs right by DCA. There’s a reason things are called Parkways-lots of trees surrounding. Chesapeake Bay is very deep and broad. Potomac not. Annapolis does not have radiational issues

They have a serious radiation prevention issue. It’s not UHI and other excuses, it’s something prohibitive to radiational cooling. The proof is when it’s windy DCA BWI and IAD are within 3 degrees of each other consistently. When calm or less than 5mph DCA is prevented somehow from radiating out and runs considerably milder,

This frontal blast thru could be interesting with snow showers it won’t get real cold tonight, low around 30 but temps will not rise Friday remaining around 30 and nw winds 15-25 gusting to 35. Bitter cold Friday night lows 10-15 and wind chill 0 to slightly below zero

Statements that “this is how it goes in a Nina” are mostly incorrect. Precipitation has been more like a Nino , strong lows into the lakes with copious moisture is more like a Nino . The temperature profile has matched Nina Weather forecasting is like medical practitioners-practice to try and get it done better. The Enso used to be very reliable and many other theories have been circulated but SSW and MJO and the Ever Increasing alphabet indexes are like medicine-in a state of development and practice. They are too often presented as assured when really it’s unproven yet May in time become proven. As painfully as many react to this-models do Not predict a weather outcome; they give examples of possibilities. It’s a good thing my doctor does not say “try this one or try that one” which is what models project with each 6 hour run. I dont know but some of you very adept do know what mechanism forces cold air down thru Canada and over western PA and NY. That’s the source for snow in DC area. Plunging cold air into central USA and then rolling eastward just does not work, phase jobs don’t work, Miller As are our money .

The big problem is and always has been for 20 years on all the weather boards-when it’s shitty the salvation of a pattern change is Always 15-20 days away. Delayed but not denied is a Myth; a form of soothing. Just gotta deal with and accept present moments and circumstances and not get into the trick bag of light at the end of the tunnel. We had a great cold shot in December but mostly shit since then.

Quickly down to 31

Pearl clutching hand wringing is a staple. We still get a biggie winter every 5/6 years.

My fully shaded area still has snowcover . measured 0.65” on board at 7:30 am currently 36

Woke up and it’s snowing 33F and 29dp Snowboard covered , looks like 0.25 . Grassy areas covered but concrete just wet Radar looks like at least 2 hours of this to come ?

What do you think of the idea that it was 60 yesterday and we may get extra dynamics with the colder push?

Getting it to Lexington and Louisville is good.

Radar starting bit of ene lift instead of due east.

At least it goes from So MD to PA border so not so narrow that 30 miles screws things up

Anybody got the 850’s?

Unless it’s an error that 23 dewpoint at Hagerstown is very interesting ??

Good rule of thumb for DC is precip advancing from w-sw must make it into at least central KY and then it doesn’t get shunted south here. it looks like it’s trying to do that but not emphatically

What are the current and projected 850’s? Thanks

Maybe we get our first snow obs thread of the season out of this.

It’s clear and 31.9 dp 24. Would love a pre 9am start but it won’t

Sometimes I chuckle myself.

Perhaps an obs thread can develop out of this. I think we will need pre dawn onset to manage any accumulation

Not only is this very little like a typical Nina it may be one of the wettest ever Additionally, I have never seen so many low pressures be able to bully stout highs and move right up into the central lakes. Many popular traditional methods of forecasting are continuing the necessity for a new script

36 high 30 Low Solid blustery winter day

Obs threads only for me the rest of my career. No more model threads. That will delight many . Ji whines and most think it’s cute. Fact statements however are a different matter. That’s true nowdays in society in general. Don’t tread on wishes nor feelings. And my observations over 20 years of watching model worship are not empty. The resolution is scrap the pure math, Mother Nature is composed of more than that. With the incredible super computing it’s entirely possible to devise analog based forecasting instead of possibility examples. Simply put, use the trends from the past to predict what will most likely follow based on how it played out in the past. But the will to do that is absent because model projection cover all bases and then claim verification when one example turns out. Prediction is what is desired, not sampling examples. Also, good ole fashioned NOAA radio and even Euro don’t try to bite off more than they can chew. Pretty much 5 days and inside which is all that is realistically needed anyway. 7,10,20 day stuff amounts to nothing more than cartoons.