WEATHER53

Gutter busting downpour, 0.75” in 18 minutes

Nice warm rain. New grass a go! 59f light to moderate rain

Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump like you is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster.

If so then bingo and exactly. Analogs. We never had said that a dry November “”Causes” a bummer winter but when 80%of the time what you referenced we end up with a bummer winter then you must pay attention to that. Now, what caused the dryness and the bummer that followed can be up to the debating team but this method Is Forecadting instead of throwing a bunch of indexes into s pot and trying to make soup. Forecasting of weather, not all potential examples of it.

In early November the source region of cold air was excellent and in evidence and that continued into mid December. Then abruptly that stopped and never returned. Why? No one knows. Perhaps God or the myriad of alphabet indexes crafted to explain the unexplainable. By just before Christmas the first “return to cold in 10 days” came and went. Now the disaster was underway. History shows that when the very first “return to cold” fails that 80% of the time the colder never re-emerges. Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own. Observation threads are still a delight and discussing 3-5 day leads is worthy but all the multi paragraphs clamoirings over unproven indexes and models really doesn’t lend anything.

That looks like -20 to possibly -30 850’s for ski resorts if MD/PA?

I think it was more like 12/13 but still bitter cold

Most memorable from 94 was the day it was 11 at 11am and 1 at 5pm, overnight low record tying (for me) -6.

I think for DC the very coldest run is 1/6-1/15

When it’s rough it’s always shown as better looking 10+ days until 10+ gets here and then it’s another 10+. Been that way for 15+ years on weather boards so kinda odd that we even hold hope or pay attention anymore.

Middle of afternoon 93 was a world Ive not seen before or since.

To me this person is saying the much ballyhooed SSW is not the player it has been touted to be starting 5/10 years ago. Even the Enso does not have the predictability it used to. Many of these indexes, with seemingly a new one being rolled out Every year, are really just an attempt to put a definition on the undefinable longer range weather patterns and responses. Yes we know negative NAo and AO is important but the rest of it all is largely variable and/or unproven. Models in the medium to longer range really Do Not predict weather but rather give varying examples of it. The best thing for mid Atlantic people to try and pin down is where is the cold air and can or how does it get here.

Good stuff you all

14 total error is really good I think I had like 35

38 here for low

Where is the chart? Thanks

BWI 11/10 IAD 11/3 DCA 11/24 RIC 11/17 Rainfall 8”

NWS in the overall does an adequate job. It may be a C or B- but they don’t fail. I don’t evaluate them as if they are the only source. I don’t think they have to be “the very best” source either. They serve the public. They may not serve us well enough but we have sharper needs and info.

Well thank goodness Josh is OK. i wonder if this will effect his chase enthusiasm. Remember that video of him wading around in a lobby pushing some people on a mattress? We got to have a get together for him around DC

Well it does look like that and the Palm leaves that did not get blown off were likely under water

Not one flake here but overcast and 32 and not windy so fun getting tree. Looks like some stations had heavy snow and 30mph gusts so must have been great.

4.7” here in 4 hours overnight with that feeder band. Some sections of BW Pkwy had 6. Luckily my yard drains downhill and away. Another downpour as I post dying tropical feeder bands in the overnight with rolling thunder and intense rain is spooky

Florence giving us in DC some serious t&l and downpours. What I had for 20 minutes you had for 24+ hours. Unimaginable.

Windygate

March1993 needs to be in top 5 as its effects here and from Florida to Maine were staggering