WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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So 50 and rain and 700 miles further west from the former coastal. Obs threads are still fun and useful at least.
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Two days ago it was a coastal monster. Now its 700 mikes further west . That’s not science. That’s example giving. In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible examples.
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Stayed away for two days because sensed a switch from coastal to cutter would show up and now it’s here. Barbell highs to west and east and low cutting up the middle. These depictions are not forecasting tools, they are examples of all possible outcomes. The fly shuts in Saskatchewan and everything changes is 20 years too old.
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The trapping did just happen so very good point
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By Sunday it’s 4 days from projection and starting then if the low is still on coast then models are in range where they won’t flip it to thru the Lakes
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So the next winter opportunity appears to be next Thursday 0 for 2 so far. I saw for a week depictions of coast to coast high pressure in Canada but we got a dumbbell alignment with a monster stuck low up into the western Great Lakes and string highs limited to both coasts.
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My outlook was lousy. So was the modeled big icer . Fail and fail.
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5:30 update 37F and dp dropped to 19.
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Then please be a useful participant with the Obs thread as things unfold
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Well instead of telling me what I don’t have-What do you have to say?
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I think we get5-6 hours of sleet and snow that tapers to drizzle and is not 0.35”+ of freezing rain. Then by late Thursday afternoon all rain for everyone even 25+ miles north and west of DC
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39 at 4:15 down 2F from the high of 41 at 3:15 Dews not coming up and baro not relenting and thin cloud cover not preventing temp drop off. Lower and thicker clouds look 1-2 hours away i think us Obs Warriors will have something to work on!
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Millville and any others- when West of I-95 is referenced can you clarify that metric further? I am 5 miles west, is that too close or does it mean literally west if 95 period or 10-15 miles or more? thanks also-just hit 40 with dp 20.
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Looks like when we get to 85%+ rh temp will evap to 30 so that’s dicey. The high is not in a good location but it is quite strong and not moving. As I said yesterday it’s an In situ and to me it appeared snow and sleet would dominate. Real big freezing rain storms are rare around here, about every 15 years yet there are modeled 1-3 times every winter.
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See what sun can do tomorrow. Winds still mostly north?
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It’s loaded with stalls and regressions last 48 hours.
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26 at 11:30 man I wish the moisture was here midnight now instead same time tomorrow. Temps and dews won’t be as favorable but how much higher?
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Yes sir Mr J* and you get the obs thread rolling!!
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Low dewpoints are fun 41 at 4:30. 39 at 5 . 34 at 5:30. 32 at 6:30
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I’m going to predict the cloud increasing holds off until 7/8pm Wednesday. By then DCA temps and dewpoints I think will be 37/20 and if we can get precip that is not real light but closer to light-moderate then by midnight-2am DCA should be 30/28 and it’s going to be worth watching
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Modeled 2-3 times every winter and occurs 2-3 times every 30 years.
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Very strong low pressure to west and very strong high pressure to the north-northeast and neither moving much at all. This looks like a long period of overrunning with the warm air being very slow to takeover, probably not until dark Thursday. If there is enough moisture we get a sleet and snow combo for over 10 hours. But it could be too light and just drizzle. The B transfer just looks like the transfer is very slow to materialize interesting in situ for the obs thread.
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I would disagree experientially that “even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit” In our best patterns it snows just about every time it can . When we are speaking of multiple misses beforehand we are mostly In trouble
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We had the first no show as predicted Friday so let’s hope upcoming event does not defer or the “delayed but….” pattern will be underway.
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Flakes with rain 1:05am 12/10.
