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WEATHER53

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Everything posted by WEATHER53

  1. WEATHER53
    One excellent solution to maintain reality is do not consider anything beyond 5 days as a forecast. When a 1040 high in the right place is represented in the 5 day or less then we have something. When it’s shown in the 7-15 day it’s useless. .
  2. WEATHER53
    I dont see the consistency. Around Thanksgiving the block was in place about 10Th, now it’s approaching 10 days later. That trend must reverse quickly.
  3. WEATHER53
    Yeah and I think Ray is kinda in between us.
  4. WEATHER53
    It’s an essentially made up mechanism to try and dismiss the fact that a predicted pattern change did not occur at the forecasted time but will materialize at a later date. Therefore, the forecast was not wrong but rather the timing was just off or delayed. Unfortunately, timing is part of a verified and accurate forecast
  5. WEATHER53
    Stay on topic and off personalizations
  6. WEATHER53
    The delayed (but not denied) mechanism is Most Deadly at Exactly this time. Once is starts it rarely stops. When cold air delivery does arrive on time as projected in the 5-10 day then it tends to arrive as predicted on time and continues to do so. If not, then not.
  7. WEATHER53
    5 days and in achieves the best utility, 7 days+ is just always all over the place depicting 25 degree temps swings with each 6 hour new release. Need a better boat.
  8. WEATHER53
    It’s important that this occur as predicted since end of Nov. Delayed but not denied is largely a myth, it mostly turns out just plain delayed.
  9. WEATHER53
    Show all possible outcomes and claim verification 7 days later when one hits. We have discussed this hunt and peck for Years.
  10. WEATHER53
    82 winter the record setting Cold Sundays and 79 the bomb snow. and of course Hi Ian!!
  11. WEATHER53
    For me 62 at 3:30, 42 at 7:30, 35 11pm .
  12. WEATHER53
    That’s great work Hi to my NE buds all!
  13. WEATHER53
    37 degree spread so far at IAD for low (24) and high so far of 61. Rare stuff for these here parts, more like high plains air mass.
  14. WEATHER53
    Thank you and you had to put At Least 20 hours into your write up?!!
  15. WEATHER53
    How much for DC?
  16. WEATHER53
    Hey Ray what you say? Matt-where you at? isotherm-dont make me squirm HM-say again! Raleigh-whats the word by golly?
  17. WEATHER53
    Missed mine by about a week. Went 4th and 5th and going to be 14th and 15th. Missed IAD by 1 so my total departure 31 or so.
  18. WEATHER53
    Yes and #3 being the monster from that year
  19. WEATHER53
    Thank you 1935 was an extreme one I think?
  20. WEATHER53
    What year did it break?
  21. WEATHER53
    Think last 2/3 winters we did “waste” cold in early and mid Nov. I like the current warmth analog wise.
  22. WEATHER53
    BWI 18.2 DCA 14.8 IAD::18.0 RIC: 12.6 tiebreak SBY 11.8
  23. WEATHER53
    Hey well I wanna know too!!!
  24. WEATHER53

    Winter 2022-23

    WEATHER53 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    It’s not saying much but is saying something versus nothing
  25. WEATHER53

    Winter 2022-23

    WEATHER53 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    2009 analogs have shown up in varied ways since July. Does not mean it will be Snowmaggedon but Does mean it will Not be a warm and minimal snow winter.
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