WEATHER53

Our grandson outdoor 6th birthday 10/1 is inside now. I contract to wedding venues with outdoor events and scrambling for this evening and tomorrow

To me it looks like Ian is beating it and not the typical other way around

On top of all the winds doesn’t really fast pressure drops also do something to the waters?

It’s sobering but so many saw the horror of this that they will always evacuate

Yes I am not gaa gaa either. That early landfall point prediction may have come true but then 15-20 other different ones were offered including panhandle hits. The southwest coast of FL did take a giant hit and they got that right (which they should) but otherwise it was “cover all the bases” and one of them hit.!

What is the projected path of remnants for NC VA and MD ?

This one may have been close to.

That drum has been banged and has failed repeatedly. Yes eventually they all do weaken but it’s not shear nor dry air that’s doing it while the eye is over water. Inland it will weaken because it’s inland so will see if “dry air/shear” crowd will chirp some more

Wow. So the shear and dry air not a factor?

Get a dying tropical system moving nevfrom sw VA and DC gets not much storm winds but spin ups in thunderstorms

Nothing wrong with Tues for 4th against this talented bunch! Gonna do a winter one?

So is the front going to pass it by and then Ian slips behind it and much more of a west track inland? There would be no way it would move like that if the front was pressing eastward with Ian to east of front?

10 miles north of Tampa at 105mph. Peak winds 135.

Hurricanes “sense” land interaction and unless solid steering winds compel them inland they will often skirt the coastline

Models don’t limit covering each and every base to winter storms only

It may be posted already but please let me see any graphics that show the east coast to mid Atlantic move Ian is supposed to make.

It might do it and if winds don’t quit at sunset there will be taste of wind chill i think the lies will be Frederick 38 Dulles 42 Bwi 45 DCA 49 Me 43

30’s for lows in far subs Fri night?

Go ahead and post your outlook please i think we see an outcome not typical of most Nina’s. The issue for DC area is will cold air source be available. Monster low pressures nw pacific coast and nw of that can’t be frequent . Many of the other indexes that are offered still seem largely theoretical with no history of being determinant on outcome

It is my thought that this winter will show another non typical Enso state reaction

Lot of temp outcomes 2002 to this analog season matched closely

+1 Dec and especially Feb is not devastating warmth. When we go +3 and milder then it’s generally snowless

December : +1 January:-3 to -5 Feb: +1 Overall: -0.33 to -1 Snowfall for DCA BWI IAD 14-18” The primary analog years are 1986, 2002, 2013, 2021. The secondary are 1966, 1977,1983, 2008, 2018’. Our analog method is mostly occurrent weather from this year. How we apply that formula is hard to explain There are some good years there. I do think chance of a big 8”+ is higher this year at about 30% instead of 15%. I hope Isotherm and Raleigh , Ma*t, Ray,HM and others will post their outlook in this thread

72 at 10 and 65 just 45 mins later

Going up 95 north of 216 5:30-6pm to Baltimore was deluge city. Solid 1-2”ph stuff