WEATHER53

And that’s because this is not a proven predictive asset.

I know you feel strongly. I have lived with the facts for 20 years. It’s a take a shot at all scenarios and claim confirmation when one hits. We’ve had about 7 solid snow looks in the 5 day+, one has semi confirmed

Yet people go to bat for them. At their very core they Do Not predict weather but rather give examples of it. As long as the consumers of model services accept that then nothing changes. Models have not improved much in 20 years. They have tried to become more specific and it does not work. This mess since mid to late December is another example. It’s not possible to zero in on something 500 miles off the west coast and predict that in 6-10 days it will be a low pressure off SC coast, or off VA capes, or over Pittsburgh and it ends up In central Great Lakes or off Florida coast and out to sea. They can’t do it so ultimately they show about 32 scenarios per day then a whole new set the next day Ji, THIS is why they make us cry.

I think prime time cold started today 1/7 and runs thru 1/16

Fret not young Skywalker. The force is with Mon-Wed time frame

I still like it

February has looked very mild in most long ranges Wevd been practicing “10 days away” since mid December with zip and same zip for the theoretical benefit of SSW.

This is a great location for origin and kinda pulling the cold air along behind it

The 1985 event is my wind chill record. Walking around at 1am with -2F and 25-30 still sustained with gusts to 40 after stronger winds in the daylight. That was old scale and I think it was -50 in peak gusts . I know gusts don’t count but when they hit you they do,

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch

So we just ended a period where several significant coastal storm snowmakers were model predicted which instead ended up in the Great Lakes. Been going on for 20 years with no significant improvement.

Some day models will abandon their microscopic approach to day 5+ and take a broader approach to things. Some wave 500 miles off the Pacific coast is Impossible to predict where it will end up for the east. If you don’t think so then how do we time after time after time end up with projections that show a low off SC coast, then over DC that then actually ends up in western Great Lakes? ALL the time and more often then not. The ensembles themselves show Exactly what models are really all about-show 32 solutions one of which may hit. To me the Only fun in weather for many years now is making obs during the event. The ups and downs and twists and turns of model watching is bullshit for this so called science.

Low of 21 and high of 34.

SSW is theoretical with no proven track record and for every 4 that are forecasted as the saviorof the mid atlantic about one materializes and then the excuse making about some other interfering factor, Pacific, and repeat cycle. These guys get some following with these elaborate technical discussions that go mostly nowhere for mid atlantic if I could run NOAA I would put all the money into the 5 day or inside, never forecast for the east coast a low that has not reached west coast yet, stick with what we know works which is mostly the AO and NAO, and quit coming up with new, novel theories presented as the latest exciting, and frequently false, fact. Also, the sudden unreliability of the ENSO now needs to be factored in and stop conjuring up how mountain torques in Peru effect east coast USA.

Best pattern ever for mild rain followed by cold followed by mild rain. There is pattern discussion and then pattern recognition

35-40 degree drop in 24 hours around DC 36 at DCA and BWI and 38 IAD. Mega Front

23.7 my coldest midnight temp so far is 27 so that gets erased

Pretty big batch out by Charleston

Merry Christmas all the New York and New England weather nuts. 10 miles north of DC am I and did get snow flurries with post sunrise high of 34 around 11am and now 31.

Post sunrise high of 34 and now 31

Did not blast in with huge drop quickly but 30 degrees overall in 12 hours is Mega qualifying

Dropping 0.5 to 1.0* per minute

Dulles dropped 13 in an hour down to 42, Here it comes

Leesburg down 9 degrees in 20 minutes

We have to see snow, family and grog pics for it to be really Merry!