Ray I think the single most important issue for DC area is what are the synoptic features set up that gets very cold air around Mongolia and then disperses it over the pole and down thru Easter Canada and over NY/PA and n-nw of that
Can you describe what set up and indexes correspond with that being able to happen?
Enso not the sure hand it was in the past. Would be interesting to have a strong Nina and DC still gets decent cold and snow. Some other proverbial assurities ENSO wise have had that happen since about 2000.
I think there is too much emphasis on ever evolving indexes thar are unproven as to their veracity and effects. SSW shows little, MJO a little bit better, but stuff like the Indian ocean dipole and a dozen others like it I feel are mostly theory and looking for different ways to reinvent the wheel. They do provide elaborate discussion from the poster and as you suggested that appears to be the main motivation for the posting
Enso has become less of a predictor than 20+ years ago.
Mostly don’t want strong low pressure out in Pacific off nw and AK and really can’t tell about that until December.
-AO/-NAO has been showing me it’s The Factor for mid Atlantic. Raymundo gets his cold air easier
Joe, much like David , are excellent at discussing the Synoptics of what is required for hurricanes and big snows but they are both poor in assessing if the upcoming situation is what will produce one.
I think 25% of the area had heavy rain. Don’t know if any flooding. Maybe 10% had 2-3” report.
For here 0.26” in 40 minutes of moderate rain, 3 minutes of heavy rain and impressive 40mph gust. Lightning much less than yesterday.