WEATHER53

In talking with who I consult, this really looks like outcome analogs versus Nina anticipated outcomes. That itself is exciting and frankly after todays talks Im eager for this winter.

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this. I continue to increase in encouragement. Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold” I mentioned there are some Big years in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook

I don t think IAD can do it Tuesday morning or night so most likely early Wed morning BWI and RIC should be really close between 31-33 and DCA 35/36

2am on 19th for IAD

Even northeast Md gets a little to a lot

Have you written anything up?

0 to -1 F for season and 14-18” DC is a B winter.

I’m 0 to -1 on temps and bit more hopeful snow 14-18. Same basic idea

As time has gone by I have become more of a believer in “don’t waste the cold” When times are good we get two months of cold JF and Oct/Nov is such a waste

Moving back in, might be heaviest so far. 1.8”

BWI: 11/4 IAD: 10/22 DCA:11/5 RIC: 11/4 DCA tiebreak high 77

92 or 93 really put them under. Tide can’t go out much with winds and next one piles in and if multiple next ones then big trouble . 62 March monster

That is what is worrying me Without being garish I wonder how many drownings have not been discovered .

Our grandson outdoor 6th birthday 10/1 is inside now. I contract to wedding venues with outdoor events and scrambling for this evening and tomorrow

To me it looks like Ian is beating it and not the typical other way around

On top of all the winds doesn’t really fast pressure drops also do something to the waters?

It’s sobering but so many saw the horror of this that they will always evacuate

Yes I am not gaa gaa either. That early landfall point prediction may have come true but then 15-20 other different ones were offered including panhandle hits. The southwest coast of FL did take a giant hit and they got that right (which they should) but otherwise it was “cover all the bases” and one of them hit.!

What is the projected path of remnants for NC VA and MD ?

This one may have been close to.

That drum has been banged and has failed repeatedly. Yes eventually they all do weaken but it’s not shear nor dry air that’s doing it while the eye is over water. Inland it will weaken because it’s inland so will see if “dry air/shear” crowd will chirp some more

Wow. So the shear and dry air not a factor?

Get a dying tropical system moving nevfrom sw VA and DC gets not much storm winds but spin ups in thunderstorms

Nothing wrong with Tues for 4th against this talented bunch! Gonna do a winter one?

So is the front going to pass it by and then Ian slips behind it and much more of a west track inland? There would be no way it would move like that if the front was pressing eastward with Ian to east of front?