WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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It’s loaded with stalls and regressions last 48 hours.
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26 at 11:30 man I wish the moisture was here midnight now instead same time tomorrow. Temps and dews won’t be as favorable but how much higher?
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Yes sir Mr J* and you get the obs thread rolling!!
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Low dewpoints are fun 41 at 4:30. 39 at 5 . 34 at 5:30. 32 at 6:30
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I’m going to predict the cloud increasing holds off until 7/8pm Wednesday. By then DCA temps and dewpoints I think will be 37/20 and if we can get precip that is not real light but closer to light-moderate then by midnight-2am DCA should be 30/28 and it’s going to be worth watching
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Modeled 2-3 times every winter and occurs 2-3 times every 30 years.
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Very strong low pressure to west and very strong high pressure to the north-northeast and neither moving much at all. This looks like a long period of overrunning with the warm air being very slow to takeover, probably not until dark Thursday. If there is enough moisture we get a sleet and snow combo for over 10 hours. But it could be too light and just drizzle. The B transfer just looks like the transfer is very slow to materialize interesting in situ for the obs thread.
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I would disagree experientially that “even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit” In our best patterns it snows just about every time it can . When we are speaking of multiple misses beforehand we are mostly In trouble
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We had the first no show as predicted Friday so let’s hope upcoming event does not defer or the “delayed but….” pattern will be underway.
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Flakes with rain 1:05am 12/10.
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Lows in the bay don’t happen much in winter
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We get the overrunning 4”, then it pizzles to drizzle, coastal takes over and Balt to NYC gets more snow.
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Hey have fun there!
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Headed out in 60 mins to get ours
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Snowing in Frederick and slightly east of
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Models frequently show a positive outcome from a Miller B for DC area. They are almost always wrong as it generally develops too far northeast and maybe Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD more, Philly to NYC a lot.
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I commented earlier in the winter outlook that this winter would not behave Nina like. I looked back to 1980 and could not find an exact match to what you asked i
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Probably should have been in hospital for 5 days, then moderate-serious 5 days, then moderating over next 7 days and on 7th day went out and ate heartily , One week later everything closed.
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One excellent solution to maintain reality is do not consider anything beyond 5 days as a forecast. When a 1040 high in the right place is represented in the 5 day or less then we have something. When it’s shown in the 7-15 day it’s useless. .
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I dont see the consistency. Around Thanksgiving the block was in place about 10Th, now it’s approaching 10 days later. That trend must reverse quickly.
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Yeah and I think Ray is kinda in between us.
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It’s an essentially made up mechanism to try and dismiss the fact that a predicted pattern change did not occur at the forecasted time but will materialize at a later date. Therefore, the forecast was not wrong but rather the timing was just off or delayed. Unfortunately, timing is part of a verified and accurate forecast
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Stay on topic and off personalizations
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The delayed (but not denied) mechanism is Most Deadly at Exactly this time. Once is starts it rarely stops. When cold air delivery does arrive on time as projected in the 5-10 day then it tends to arrive as predicted on time and continues to do so. If not, then not.
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5 days and in achieves the best utility, 7 days+ is just always all over the place depicting 25 degree temps swings with each 6 hour new release. Need a better boat.
