WEATHER53

6pm Obs 35.3 and sleet/rain

Intriguing that radar is not reading precipitation type correctly

35.9 and very light rain. Let the evap begin

Who has a current upper air map?

Why do you? i just answered even though justifying myself is unwarranted and not part of an Obs thread,

Because I like making observations as the event approaches and during it. If I reject model worship or negative nellies then you will have to deal with it. Now back to observations and let moderators deal with those who interject emotional chastisements

Dont think DC people will be happy about a whitening. All day this has evolved toward a 2-3” event for most of City and to north and west

Are you thinking about moving?

3:30pm down to 36.9 with 24dp

1pm obs 38/24. 1 degree increase in last hour, I think evap will be 50% so that gets me to 31 with steady light-moderate. Aloft seems helpful so might be better than 50% but it’s a safe way of predicting

Ra*dal* Do you still have your great pictures from Feb 2007 that you could share here or email to me ?

Gassed up the observation machine and ready for duty

Thought this was a weather observation thread?

I think yes!

33.3 and dews soaring up . Ground is frozen and that might be a factor

You are quite correct Models exist to sustain themselves. It’s all we’ve had for 30 years and they are not looking into any different methods. The very nature of ensembles is to further the cover all bases method such that come funding time one of those 30 panels can be presented as confirmation to the unknowing Dept of Commerce people. Im a weather nut also and let’s face it the cartoons are fun to look at. They are just not predictive of weather but rather illustrative of it Not a troll either but rather experientially seasoned. Used to be 100+ of us clamoring about models back in 2005, over time as the blooms faded participants of regularity have shrunk to 20 all of whom vigorously defend their baby. I thank all of you who helped educate me about 850s and 500 and a Few other things but models and many of the alphabet soup of indexes have not proven to be general fund of knowledge enhancing Thank you for the courage of your comment, more of same is needed even with the chastizements we face

All bases covered

29.5 at 6pm coldest for time this season

33.6 for my high coldest daytime of the season

Looks like a busy 4/5 day period and models showing every possible outcome from ideal 997 off va beach to central lakes cutter.

Wish we could have a model thread limited to 4 days or closer. The 7+ day models have been more useless this year than ever and I did not think that was possible. Until the Entire platform of models is changed from giving examples to making predictions then we continue to get the same clap trap dozens and dozens of examples every 6 hours like we have last 20 years. I know of no “science” that is the same or less efficient than it was 20 years ago.

The night before the cancellation I experienced -2 temp at 1am and 30mph winds. The old scale wind chill was like -40. Friend up near Sugarloaf said he was -7 with sustained 35 and like -60 old scale. The winds really let up quick after 1am but never died complete and I hit -6 which was tied in 94.

Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks

5 to 10 degrees above average for the high and 5 to 10 degrees below average for lows. Pretty unusual

Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. Its not science nor good forecasting to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive