WEATHER53

I think IAD makes it tonight If DCA hits the NWS predicted low of 33 I will eat the fallen leaves and all other stations would be 29/30. I think DCA will bottom at 37.

BWI 33 and Andrews 32 but none of contest made it. Maybe tonight but the southerly component didn’t help last night and unless calm Thur morning for 2/3 hours it will hurt again

IAD went 9 consecutive hourlies with DP remaining at 28 as temps fell from 52 to 39 41 here at midnight is coldest at midnight for season

2am might be an early call unless it’s clear by 10pm kinda misdiagnosis in text of NWS until today as this isn’t Canadian high pressure forcing down the cold but rather intense low spinning in northern Great Lakes funneling down

To me the debate has not been clearly resolved as to does the weather cause indexes or do the indexes cause weather? I think this winter is going to be counter to what the indexes are indicating. I think it’s a battle between what indexes are indicating versus what analogs are foretelling.

And in my own quaint way that what I am saying

In talking with who I consult, this really looks like outcome analogs versus Nina anticipated outcomes. That itself is exciting and frankly after todays talks Im eager for this winter.

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this. I continue to increase in encouragement. Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold” I mentioned there are some Big years in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook

I don t think IAD can do it Tuesday morning or night so most likely early Wed morning BWI and RIC should be really close between 31-33 and DCA 35/36

2am on 19th for IAD

Even northeast Md gets a little to a lot

Have you written anything up?

0 to -1 F for season and 14-18” DC is a B winter.

I’m 0 to -1 on temps and bit more hopeful snow 14-18. Same basic idea

As time has gone by I have become more of a believer in “don’t waste the cold” When times are good we get two months of cold JF and Oct/Nov is such a waste

Moving back in, might be heaviest so far. 1.8”

BWI: 11/4 IAD: 10/22 DCA:11/5 RIC: 11/4 DCA tiebreak high 77

92 or 93 really put them under. Tide can’t go out much with winds and next one piles in and if multiple next ones then big trouble . 62 March monster

That is what is worrying me Without being garish I wonder how many drownings have not been discovered .

Our grandson outdoor 6th birthday 10/1 is inside now. I contract to wedding venues with outdoor events and scrambling for this evening and tomorrow

To me it looks like Ian is beating it and not the typical other way around

On top of all the winds doesn’t really fast pressure drops also do something to the waters?

It’s sobering but so many saw the horror of this that they will always evacuate

Yes I am not gaa gaa either. That early landfall point prediction may have come true but then 15-20 other different ones were offered including panhandle hits. The southwest coast of FL did take a giant hit and they got that right (which they should) but otherwise it was “cover all the bases” and one of them hit.!

What is the projected path of remnants for NC VA and MD ?