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WEATHER53

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Everything posted by WEATHER53

  1. WEATHER53
    I would disagree experientially that “even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit” In our best patterns it snows just about every time it can . When we are speaking of multiple misses beforehand we are mostly In trouble
  2. WEATHER53
    We had the first no show as predicted Friday so let’s hope upcoming event does not defer or the “delayed but….” pattern will be underway.
  3. WEATHER53
    Flakes with rain 1:05am 12/10.
  4. WEATHER53
    Lows in the bay don’t happen much in winter
  5. WEATHER53
    We get the overrunning 4”, then it pizzles to drizzle, coastal takes over and Balt to NYC gets more snow.
  6. WEATHER53
    Hey have fun there!
  7. WEATHER53
    Headed out in 60 mins to get ours
  8. WEATHER53
    Snowing in Frederick and slightly east of
  9. WEATHER53
    Models frequently show a positive outcome from a Miller B for DC area. They are almost always wrong as it generally develops too far northeast and maybe Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD more, Philly to NYC a lot.
  10. WEATHER53
    I commented earlier in the winter outlook that this winter would not behave Nina like. I looked back to 1980 and could not find an exact match to what you asked i
  11. WEATHER53
    Probably should have been in hospital for 5 days, then moderate-serious 5 days, then moderating over next 7 days and on 7th day went out and ate heartily , One week later everything closed.
  12. WEATHER53
    One excellent solution to maintain reality is do not consider anything beyond 5 days as a forecast. When a 1040 high in the right place is represented in the 5 day or less then we have something. When it’s shown in the 7-15 day it’s useless. .
  13. WEATHER53
    I dont see the consistency. Around Thanksgiving the block was in place about 10Th, now it’s approaching 10 days later. That trend must reverse quickly.
  14. WEATHER53
    Yeah and I think Ray is kinda in between us.
  15. WEATHER53
    It’s an essentially made up mechanism to try and dismiss the fact that a predicted pattern change did not occur at the forecasted time but will materialize at a later date. Therefore, the forecast was not wrong but rather the timing was just off or delayed. Unfortunately, timing is part of a verified and accurate forecast
  16. WEATHER53
    Stay on topic and off personalizations
  17. WEATHER53
    The delayed (but not denied) mechanism is Most Deadly at Exactly this time. Once is starts it rarely stops. When cold air delivery does arrive on time as projected in the 5-10 day then it tends to arrive as predicted on time and continues to do so. If not, then not.
  18. WEATHER53
    5 days and in achieves the best utility, 7 days+ is just always all over the place depicting 25 degree temps swings with each 6 hour new release. Need a better boat.
  19. WEATHER53
    It’s important that this occur as predicted since end of Nov. Delayed but not denied is largely a myth, it mostly turns out just plain delayed.
  20. WEATHER53
    Show all possible outcomes and claim verification 7 days later when one hits. We have discussed this hunt and peck for Years.
  21. WEATHER53
    82 winter the record setting Cold Sundays and 79 the bomb snow. and of course Hi Ian!!
  22. WEATHER53
    For me 62 at 3:30, 42 at 7:30, 35 11pm .
  23. WEATHER53
    That’s great work Hi to my NE buds all!
  24. WEATHER53
    37 degree spread so far at IAD for low (24) and high so far of 61. Rare stuff for these here parts, more like high plains air mass.
  25. WEATHER53
    Thank you and you had to put At Least 20 hours into your write up?!!
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