Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this.
I continue to increase in encouragement.
Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold” I mentioned there are some Big years in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook