WEATHER53

30’s for lows in far subs Fri night?

Go ahead and post your outlook please i think we see an outcome not typical of most Nina’s. The issue for DC area is will cold air source be available. Monster low pressures nw pacific coast and nw of that can’t be frequent . Many of the other indexes that are offered still seem largely theoretical with no history of being determinant on outcome

It is my thought that this winter will show another non typical Enso state reaction

Lot of temp outcomes 2002 to this analog season matched closely

+1 Dec and especially Feb is not devastating warmth. When we go +3 and milder then it’s generally snowless

December : +1 January:-3 to -5 Feb: +1 Overall: -0.33 to -1 Snowfall for DCA BWI IAD 14-18” The primary analog years are 1986, 2002, 2013, 2021. The secondary are 1966, 1977,1983, 2008, 2018’. Our analog method is mostly occurrent weather from this year. How we apply that formula is hard to explain There are some good years there. I do think chance of a big 8”+ is higher this year at about 30% instead of 15%. I hope Isotherm and Raleigh , Ma*t, Ray,HM and others will post their outlook in this thread

72 at 10 and 65 just 45 mins later

Going up 95 north of 216 5:30-6pm to Baltimore was deluge city. Solid 1-2”ph stuff

It’s hard to snow in DC

85 at 6pm 75 at 8pm 72 at 9pm lovely fall like evening temp drop

June stayed cool, July ended up +0.1 and August +1.0 with July 14 90+ and August 15. All those calls were good to excellent as of 9/1 we’ve had 38 90+ so my call for 35 is excellent one final note is around June 20th I stated the DCA high several days earlier of 99 would be the high for the summer. That was a Bold Call, despite a detractor comment, because of the timing of it moreso than temp itself although I do admit some interconnection. Winter outlook coming 9/15

Thanks and I’ll be sure for you.

83 at 6pm 73 at 7:30 68 at 9:30

Ray I think the single most important issue for DC area is what are the synoptic features set up that gets very cold air around Mongolia and then disperses it over the pole and down thru Easter Canada and over NY/PA and n-nw of that Can you describe what set up and indexes correspond with that being able to happen?

Enso not the sure hand it was in the past. Would be interesting to have a strong Nina and DC still gets decent cold and snow. Some other proverbial assurities ENSO wise have had that happen since about 2000.

That’s correct The analogs are in and it’s not a snow drought nor heat wave

I think there is too much emphasis on ever evolving indexes thar are unproven as to their veracity and effects. SSW shows little, MJO a little bit better, but stuff like the Indian ocean dipole and a dozen others like it I feel are mostly theory and looking for different ways to reinvent the wheel. They do provide elaborate discussion from the poster and as you suggested that appears to be the main motivation for the posting

HM also

Can’t get it right all the time. Him, Matt R, Raleigh, Ray, KA, and couple more do well generally. He will contribute later

What were the other 3?

Shredded Homestead AFB. Think reports were 2’ thick ribar was no match

Enso has become less of a predictor than 20+ years ago. Mostly don’t want strong low pressure out in Pacific off nw and AK and really can’t tell about that until December. -AO/-NAO has been showing me it’s The Factor for mid Atlantic. Raymundo gets his cold air easier

I see 2013 and last year 2021 in posts and I too have them.

0.75” downpour from 7:30-7:50. Orioles!

Pretty much finished and will be released early on 9/15 its not going to be another boring ass+5F winter with 7” of snow. More later