WEATHER53

Arctic Blast Watch in Effect

This front and low look like rare stuff coming up. Been kinda crazy looking for a while

Jack Front nipping at your nose….whole body nip really

I like to battle the elements but not discount them.

I think precisely that may have been the one day in Jan 77 where daytime highs were above average ranging 45-50 and then bang right back into the deep freeze for rest of the month

So between 1 to 4pm Friday the low which meanders for over a day suddenly shoots 300 miles to the east in 3 hours by 4pm and is a baro of 28.70. Going to be a whole new adventure witnessing that! That arctic front that pasted us about 10 years ago looks similar to this one. A low in the lakes as opposed to drier high pressure driven frontal passage with a temperature profile of like 55 at 11am, 30 by 5pm, 20 by midnight and a low of 13. All the while, with that depicted 970 inland hurricane, 30mph winds around DC gusting to 50. If it can’t snow it can at least be rowdy windy cold.

Really is going to be a super unique set up to watch unfold. From mid Thursday thru late Sunday, an 80 hour period, a very strong low pressure, moves at 3-5 mph south of the Lakes and achieves a barometric low of 28.80, mostly stays less than 29.30, while bookended by 30.40 barbell highs.

Correct and out in the Midwest a 970 low with a 1040 high several hundred miles to west of it would produce 70-80mph winds or gusts. Let’s see if those values of pressure gradient differential verify. The comments I made earlier may not have fully dintinguished I was talking about out there and not DC.

As depicted 80mph winds on backside of that low on Friday and Saturday

So 50 and rain and 700 miles further west from the former coastal. Obs threads are still fun and useful at least.

Two days ago it was a coastal monster. Now its 700 mikes further west . That’s not science. That’s example giving. In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible examples.

Stayed away for two days because sensed a switch from coastal to cutter would show up and now it’s here. Barbell highs to west and east and low cutting up the middle. These depictions are not forecasting tools, they are examples of all possible outcomes. The fly shuts in Saskatchewan and everything changes is 20 years too old.

The trapping did just happen so very good point

By Sunday it’s 4 days from projection and starting then if the low is still on coast then models are in range where they won’t flip it to thru the Lakes

So the next winter opportunity appears to be next Thursday 0 for 2 so far. I saw for a week depictions of coast to coast high pressure in Canada but we got a dumbbell alignment with a monster stuck low up into the western Great Lakes and string highs limited to both coasts.

My outlook was lousy. So was the modeled big icer . Fail and fail.

5:30 update 37F and dp dropped to 19.

Then please be a useful participant with the Obs thread as things unfold

Well instead of telling me what I don’t have-What do you have to say?

I think we get5-6 hours of sleet and snow that tapers to drizzle and is not 0.35”+ of freezing rain. Then by late Thursday afternoon all rain for everyone even 25+ miles north and west of DC

39 at 4:15 down 2F from the high of 41 at 3:15 Dews not coming up and baro not relenting and thin cloud cover not preventing temp drop off. Lower and thicker clouds look 1-2 hours away i think us Obs Warriors will have something to work on!

Millville and any others- when West of I-95 is referenced can you clarify that metric further? I am 5 miles west, is that too close or does it mean literally west if 95 period or 10-15 miles or more? thanks also-just hit 40 with dp 20.

Looks like when we get to 85%+ rh temp will evap to 30 so that’s dicey. The high is not in a good location but it is quite strong and not moving. As I said yesterday it’s an In situ and to me it appeared snow and sleet would dominate. Real big freezing rain storms are rare around here, about every 15 years yet there are modeled 1-3 times every winter.

See what sun can do tomorrow. Winds still mostly north?

It’s loaded with stalls and regressions last 48 hours.