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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The real wild card other than SSW stuff(and maybe they are connected), is the NAO is starting to fire in LR model runs.
  2. Carvers Gap
    How crazy would it be to start the with highs in the low to mid 70s, only to end the month below zero or in single digits. That is one wild ridge. With an active STJ, the front in which that potential cold air rides will need to be watched for cyclogenesis which forms if it hits the GOM.
  3. Carvers Gap
    You know in all of this storm tracking...I failed to look at temps. The GFS, Euro, and CMC are all showing VERY cold temps between d8-10. I just happened by those temps on a driveby check of the Euro control. I then went back and looked at the operational runs, and sure enough. The 12z Euro control, operational, and CMC now show the potential for single digits or below zero temps around the 27th or just after, especially the control and the CMC.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Actually, the 12z EPS had a decent pass with system one in addition to the OP. About half the slp were clustered just northwest of Savannah. The GFS has trended SE w/ system one (off the top of my head) since 0z where everything was a cutter.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The GFS has a good pass w/ system one. The problem is that it is in the middle of the day. The second system is at night. If it was the olden days...we would say the Euro is wrapped up too tight...but honestly both the GFS and Euro are bouncing around right now that I can't even put our once reliable biases into play! Anyway, lots to look at.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Super fast and I gotta go. The 12z GEFS and GEPS are honking re: the second system. Modeling may have a warm nose in the eastern valley and may not. However, both have lows which either redevelop SE of us or just east. That is usually a good sign for someone in the forum area.
  7. Carvers Gap
    For what once was a cutter west of west TN...the system on the 22nd/23rd has moved SE a bunch. I think these systems are going to verify SE of their current spots, but I could be wrong. This system late this weekend is a good example. I am seeing essentially a storm cutting through E TN which is about 500 miles SE of where it was a few days ago. Interesting. Admittedly, I have been out of pocket today...so that is an incredibly fast observation from me, and the quality of my comment may reflect the amount of time I looked at it!!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CFSv2 this morning, after being warm for several runs yesterday, is back to another cold shot during early Feb. It probably is over doing it, but I think modeling is torn between warm phase MJO and looping back into cold phases. I don't have time to look at actual convection in the long range, but that looks a lot like phases 8, 1, and 2 getting recycled. It could be feedback. It may not be.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am definitely interested in overnight trends in the long range d10-15 as the 0z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS nearly eliminate ridging in our area after a brief ridge rolls through. I have said this prior, I will be interested to see if modeling does the reverse of what it did in late December where it tried to re-establish a trough in the LR only to have a very consistent eastern ridge build and hold. Just a thought, and spitballing only there. That said, there are two camps in the MJO department this morning for the second week of Feb - loop the MJO back through the COD after phase 3 and back to phase 7/8 per the EMON/EMOM/BOMM or take the tour per the GEFS....though the GMON does loop across the warmer COD. I tend to think this takes the warm tour, but who knows. If someone has actually looked at the Feb forecast for Indonesia and/or the IO, I would be interested to know if it is firing there. There is a school where it just stall in phase 3 or loops back in phase 3 per the Canadian LR. One parting thought on the MJO, there are some rare occurrences where it stays cold in those phases. I don't think that occurs w/ this, but overnight modeling gives me some pause there.
  10. Carvers Gap
    In fact, the 6z GFS moved from Arkansas to Cape Hatteras at 168.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS is a Miller A for the second storm. If you want some whiplash, look at last night's model runs. Did the GFS and Euro just switch places? I think they did. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That sure looks like the Madison River. Man, I love Yellowstone. We went one spring, and they had received like 4-5' in advance of our arrival. They had snow in their yards piled to the rooftops. We love West Yell. I have never been to Big Sky but I have driven by it 1,000x I think while traveling from Bozeman to the Park to fish. The Gallatin Valley...I am not sure if there is one more amazing. What a great experience to see that region during winter, and they have been HAMMERED by snow this winter. My favorite area is the Madison below Raynolds Pass Bridge.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Goodbye spring! LOL....It wouldn't be the first time that winter came calling during March! Good stuff, Holston! Hope all is going well with your family.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS was a slight nudge to the Euro camp as a lot of energy stayed south. It even popped a low over Louisiana before getting strung out. Anyone who knows me, knows I like lows over New Orleans during winter.
  15. Carvers Gap
    18z ICON is an inland runner(almost to the Apps). Decent jog to the SE from 12z. Trends are all that I am looking at and slp location/tracks.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I do think the boundary is excellent for system 3 and probably WAA for system 4. The very idea that we are talking about four systems after the AN temp anomaly from the past 2.5 weeks is kind of cool.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the ensembles mslp positions for each storm....60% cutters and 40% coastals. And that is better than what we have had most of the winter at this range. There is a pretty good mix. Depending on which model you look at, there are clusters for coastals and cutters. I don't think we know the second storm track until the first track is known.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we are a solid 6 days out right now w/ decent model spread. On a global scale, that is not much of a difference. Cutters are the default for winter, so I give mild deference to that trend. That said, eventually that boundary should sit west to east. We need HP over the top. That is really what we need here in E TN.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Definitely. It is the model which identified this upcoming cold shot first. It has been really good as a long wave model in LR. It has scored better than the GFS at this range almost all winter as well as the Euro. The GFS does get much better inside of 5 days.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And that isn't even mentioning a likely third system(maybe 4), before we lose the pattern.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z scorecard. System one is the 22nd/23rd and system two is the 26th-ish storm. Storm 1 / Storm 2 CMC: Inland Runner Miller A...Ice NE TN / Cut...Ice NE TN GFS: Cut / Cut Euro: Apps Runner...snow upper middle TN / Coastal Miller A...big city blizzard
  22. Carvers Gap
    All areas are in play at this point w/ model tracks being all over the place. The 12z Euro has a coastal Miller A for the second storm. The GFS has a cutter into the Plains. That is a big probability cone.
  23. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z Euro has an Apps runner for the 22/23 system and a very, very suppressed look for the one on the 25th.
  24. Carvers Gap
    To have a decent shot at a big storm, we want to sit right on the boundary between cold and warm air masses at this time of year. Sometimes that is a plus and sometimes not - meaning sometimes we will be north of that line and sometimes south. But we have to be on the edge to score snow. This window of Jan22 to roughly Feb5th is actually a better window IMHO than December as the STJ is actually active. No STJ, and it can be really tough to get snow into the forum area, especially the eastern valley.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Nina climatology to a tee. We will see where it goes w/ the Euro. Right now the least accurate model has the cutters. I suspect we see at least one cut thought. That said, I think the greater risk is for suppression once modeling figures out the cold boundary. I actually feel like this is the best pattern we have seen for winter weather this winter - on paper.
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