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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    500mb patterns are fairly similar but temps are all over the place on ensembles for our forum area d7+.
  2. Carvers Gap
    There is a likely warmup coming after the 5th. The really question I have is do we do the same thing that we did in December - go very cold and then go warm?
  3. Carvers Gap
    So, the 12z Euro control does something similar to the GFS. It’s ensemble is pretty meh. Not sure an ensemble would catch an extreme run.
  4. Carvers Gap
    True that. I always preface my post to friends with...but this is the GFS. LOL Thar cold shot is on most models. Some hold it in the west. Some get it to the Apps. This GFS run got it to the coast. The CMC had it, but it ran out of time.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The crazy thing, the 12z GFS has total support from the 12z Canadian ensemble. I think we see very cold air after the 27th. Modeling has been adamant about this for several weeks. Can it cross the Plateau? Open for debate.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That might be a response to the SSW....it is a bit quick, but nature doesn’t follow my rules! LOL. That is how it looks.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, no kidding. LOL
  8. Carvers Gap
    There is something lurking in that time range. The CMC has a big cold dump which is similar but the run stops. Can the cold get this far? That is the question. The wavelengths and cold air combo is a good one.
  9. Carvers Gap
    My lights are flickering as I look at this run.
  10. Carvers Gap
    What comes after that is just crazy.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And now we know why the GEFD snow mean was honking at 6z. Similar look on the cmc.
  12. Carvers Gap
    This is more like it. No idea idea if this continues or if the GFS has lost a few screws, but yeah.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Here come the PV on the 12z GFS...this should be fun.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Great look at 162 on the 12z gfs.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It is noteworthy that the 6z GEFS is quite cold this morning. Warm-up is likely mid Feb, but that is a really good look on a model with a slight warm bias d10+.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Mercy. Talk about a good catch. I am out of pocket again today. I did grab the 6z GEFS snow mean after seeing those looks that you posted. Yeah, that is a good gradient on the ensemble right at the end of the month. Might be easily the best snow ensemble of the season.
  17. Carvers Gap
    On June 14th one year, they had to close the park due to snow. We had 5" of snow in West Yell. It came in like a wall which was a black cloud. They opened one of the ski slopes for a day as they had a foot at higher elevations. We got into the park later that day and fish were rising everywhere.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The thing a about Niña and the Mountain West is to look at snowfall. They are way above normal. The likely aren’t that cold this month since the cold emptied itself in December. I suspect their December is going to even out January or get close to it. I watch that area super closely. Many areas have had their best winter in a long time in regards to snow. That is classic Niña climatology. Nino winters are often BN for water in Montana and Wyoming.
  19. Carvers Gap
    So....if placing bets, go with Asia. If it goes to NA, go West. When we do feel the effects along the East Coast, it is often extreme. I would suspect the cold at the end of Feb is related.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Definitely there is a pattern change at hand.....the big block over HB is about to be gone. The question is whether the output at the mid latitudes is much different. The low in the Aleutians will be replaced by a pesky high which is very Nina like, and has been present during the last two winters(reference the big red ball of fire conversations). That said, temps should be seasonal to below for most days during the next two weeks. Modeling appears to have done well with this window, but was too extreme in its early looks. We will certainly have a day or two AN. Whether we can score another storm is still up for debate - before the MJO likely rotates into warm phases in a couple of weeks. I do see ample potential for yet another upslope event right after storm two. I think the best window for a winter storm will be from Jan28 to roughly Feb 5th(that window could extend a day or two). I certainly concur that cold temps are coming later in Feb and into March unfortunately. Again, with shortening wavelengths, the variability of the upcoming pattern is likely high. Not all pattern changes are net cold, but a pattern change is incoming. Also, the NAO is absolutely difficult to predict with any accuracy. It has been on one model run only to be absent on the next. If it fires....that would again balance a terrible Pacific set-up. As for Nina or Nino characteristics...the atmosphere appears to be showing both. The lack of storms along the eastern seaboard is 100% Nina climatology. Cutter city is Jan-Feb Nina climatology. Now, what is open for hot debate is whether that is about to change. If we begin to see a ton of rainy, drizzly days with highs in the 50s with no en in sight...welcome to Super El Nino. I do think the jet extension a couple of weeks ago was El Nino related. However, the heavy snows in the Mountain West is classic La Nina. Place like Montana and Wyoming see much less snow during Nino winters. They had very bad drought conditions during the 90s due to the excessive number of Nino conditions. The cold spring look on the Euro Weeklies is El Nino. So, it appears the transition has begun. And trust me on this, we don't want Nina climatology to continue into February or it is gonna be torch city. So, I welcome that change if it is indeed at hand.
  21. Carvers Gap
    One last note, and I will be off the forum for some time today, is that there does appear to be a northwest flow and/or clipper event following the second storm. The cold air looks to be in place from Jan27th to ~5th. Within that northwest flow, it does appear some light snow showers are embedded w/ details to be worked out later. NE TN and the northern border counties of TN and southern KY would stand the best chance w/ those(if they don't trend northward which is common).
  22. Carvers Gap
    Not much to add to yesterday evening's discussion. Other than Pivotal, it does look like American modeling is/was having trouble propagating to other websites this morning. A couple of sites that I use were missing large chunks of 0z and 6z runs or was just missing it altogether. That said, the CPC MJO site does support a warm-up after the 5th as the MJO is shown to travel through the warmer phases(low amplitude for now) on several models. Some models just go COD in and around phase 3. So, the Euro Weeklies do look correct in its depiction for February - false spring followed by more winter to end that month. It does look to me like Nino climatology and/or the SSW is going to be felt during the last week of Feb and early March. I should also note that with changing wavelengths, February is not an easy month to forecast. Take a look at the last two GFS runs, and you will see some excellent passes by that model(w/ room to trend nor west). But I am a little wary this morning of modeling as American modeling has taken its time loading onto my normal sites.
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS. This is possibly a one-off since there was a big storm at the end of the GFS...but this is a nice ensemble mean for NE TN.
  24. Carvers Gap
    No earthquakes!!!!! LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    It is the 18z NAM at range, but it has 1-3" of accumulating snow on the Plateau w/ rain changing to snow. NE TN has 0.5-1.0" of snow w/ the same system.
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