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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    it is. i'm a little concerned about having such a strong high beelining to the southeast like that, but if the front end stuff is as depicted, then it's game on. also...just checked gfs for next weekend...intriguing.
  2. 87storms
    it's a pretty flat look. the storm doesn't gain enough latitude and there's really nothing that keeps it from shooting ots. gonna need everything to be further north, but 500 isn't inspiring at all. at least we have temps on our side, so any scraps from the first part should stick.
  3. 87storms
    yup, that's what mine was. was unpleasant, to say the least. felt like a classic stomach flu, but the quick duration was odd, so maybe it was the norovirus.
  4. 87storms
    not gonna lie, i feel like this storm has some decent bust potential. upper levels are pretty foul, at least when comparing to the systems that do well here. boom scenario would be coastal impacts. bust would be stuck in no man's land during the coastal transfer. wouldn't surprise me if that initial WAA gets mangled on approach since we're talking about a fairly strung out system, but i hope i'm wrong because i'm ready for some snow.
  5. 87storms
    that might have been what i had a couple years ago (winter time). awful stomach bug for a day and then was pretty much fully recovered by the next day.
  6. 87storms
    one thing i like is that daytime (or midday) sunday (estimating here) looks to be when the better stuff arrives.
  7. 87storms
    lol, but it does look good though until crosses the mountains, which could argue for that typical north nudge. i'd like to see the euro hold.
  8. 87storms
    goal posts are narrowing on a md and/or va special. tbd on whether this nudges north some. it's a slightly better run than 18z for dc proper.
  9. 87storms
    As others have said, 500 ain’t pretty. We don’t want a system weakening or “pancaking” upon approach. That’s a story we’ve seen play out before. I’d like to see a north shift with this to be on the safe side.
  10. 87storms
    Temps are easy with this one. Nice to not have to worry about that aspect. And it’s also nice to have the euro on our side.
  11. 87storms
    qpf output for fv3 didn't seem too great, though better than cmc/gfs. 12z canadian matches up with 18z gfs. we could use a bit of a north shift amongst those models.
  12. 87storms
    wondering if this is turning into a boom (warning level) or bust (scraps) situation as opposed to a middle of the road light event. if we're talking a system weakening on approach entering a dry environment, that could pose some problems on the leeward side. however, if we have enough lift/energy/onshore flow, then it's going to lay down some good ratios over a 6 hr period, enough to probably easily reach warning level criteria. i guess i'm not all in on a long duration light event because we don't see that often.
  13. 87storms
    i like the placement of it, but it needs to be weaker than modeled. not sure how much i buy the high barreling down like it's showing. in other news, for those not in the obs thread, snow showers incoming? just got kinda gray out.
  14. 87storms
    looks like there's going to be a tight gradient with that high pressing down. i think as long as the wave is legit and doesn't shear/dry out, then we can overperform with the temps. dc is even modeled to be at or below freezing and we have a couple of cold days leading up to it. and it might be an overnighter, or at least the initial portion. hope that coastal is a bit further north/west than modeled, though. would like to see the surface low 50 miles north to get into a real nice event... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019010912&fh=108
  15. 87storms
    the 500 setup is meh for a big event, but if we can get just enough lift with these temps, then this is an easy 1-3/2-4" system which is a helluva lot better than what we've had so far this winter, minus the nov storm which wasn't really all that to begin with (was just fun because it was november). we're due for powder.
  16. 87storms
    Need a juicy wave for this. We know what the Apps can do to storms here. I don’t like the idea of a long duration light event. That’s not what we do well, in general, but maybe this is just one of those setups that’ll do that.
  17. 87storms
    this is how we get our colorado powder. gotta walk that line of suppression vs juiced up enough system when we have a strong high to the north. would be pretty cool if this system is like our rainers, because those had plenty of moisture the last few months.
  18. 87storms
    oy vay, but would be nice if they're right. my jeep is hungry.
  19. 87storms
    agreed. i don't recall too many big storm setups with that type of look, but light/moderate seems doable. might need the northeast squasher to be further north/west to allow more overrunning out ahead of this system, so we don't end up with a virga fest.
  20. 87storms
    agreed, even a good pattern doesn't mean we get every storm, as we all know. lots of rust showing up in this thread, too. since when did we start getting heavily invested in storms 6-7 days out? the 500 pattern even during the hits for next weekend was a little squashy. still think this could turn into a moderate event, but it's too early to know. best thing to do at this point is track the pattern change because the one we've been in has sucked for most of the east coast. well, for snow at least. i've actually kinda enjoyed not having snow covered courts/trails for the time being, though i think i'm finally ready for some colorado-style powder.
  21. 87storms
    need the southern energy to be legit because there's a kicker coming from the north. as is, looks like a reasonable overrunning event and clearly snow.
  22. 87storms
    around this time last year, the potomac was starting to freeze over. that stretch of cold temps was brutal. pretty remarkable difference between last year and this year so far, though last year we ended up not doing well in the snow dept. maybe this year it's flip flopped. mild start, but snowier finish.
  23. 87storms
    felt like march outside today. no complaints here. i've always been in the "if it's not gonna snow, throw me some 50 degree temps" camp.
  24. 87storms
    if it's gonna rain, i like the idea of temps in the 50s tomorrow. wondering if this ends up being a midwest winter. the next few weeks will speak volumes as to how this winter turns out.
  25. 87storms
    if the gfs is right, could be a decent soaker tomorrow, most of it in a 6 hour window. it's showing 2" totals, though somewhat of a narrow stripe, so we'll see how it pans out. nam isn't as impressive with the totals and seems to favor the n/w burbs, but yea...more rain.
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