87storms

shouldn't take too long for flakes to fly given the dews and we currently have an easterly wind. nam 3k has some better lift moving through right before rush hour, so that could be our start time. edit: probably close to the end of rush hour, but sometimes these systems move in a little quicker than advertised. kind of a weak sauce event, but maybe we can get enough steady/moderate to coat things.

looks like the system sped up a bit this run which i don't think is what we want.

air mass in place is pretty good with this, so the low track might matter more in regards to precip than temps.

cmc hints at what's going wrong with this weekend system as it's showing phasing way north with that ns energy. not sure if that's how it'll work out, but we need this system to stay separated and/or have it lagging behind that reinforced blocking. i may have some of these details confuzzled, but i think we want a slower overall ss or a trailing wave to start appearing so that we actually have precip to work with when temps crash.

i think we want slower, so the high building in is out ahead of the ss or at least not lagging behind it. otherwise, it looks like the storm is finding a weakness and cutting too far west.

i don't know that i buy the cutters, but i think app runner is an issue (though i suppose that classifies as a cutter). it also doesn't look there's going to be ideal cad developing out ahead of it because of that southeast ridge. it's a setup worth monitoring, but i could see how it could still be an apps runner even with the favored banana highs over top.

yea i think we'd need this to transfer to the carolina coast or something to make it work. as is, it's an app runner, though i wouldn't really expect that based off of the high pressure to the north. they look at least somewhat favorable.

icon really ramps that sunday storm up in the plains. might need a 1050 high to tame it, ala pd2 lol.

i wouldn't be surprised to see sunday trending a little colder on the front side.

also interested to see what it does with the weekend system. pretty close with that, too. edit: guess i'll need to wait. 6z/18z only goes out to 120.

this last storm is proof that things can change pretty quickly. one thing that's pretty clear for this area (at least from my view) is that we have a better chance at precip overperforming than cold. this last storm looked squashy, but we found a way because we've got the gulf and atlantic on our side. "snow" cold is just not as easy. for the weekend situation, that high placement looks good in the midwest, but we may need it to be further east. this last storm we had a stout high tracking over top in unison with the southern stream.

looks like another band forming and headed towards mby.

8.5" here, unoffically.

This is overperforming like some of our recent rainers. Double digits are in play if these rates continue for a couple more hours.

That was a top shelf snow shower. Lightened a bit the last few minutes but it had to have dropped a quick inch.

Dumping

Accumulating everywhere. Moderate snow.

Cloud deck should be lowering again per wv loop. Think it’s go time for the next round.

Steady with dendrites here.

yea, i've already called it a storm lol, though a couple more inches would make me call this a round. very good storm for this area and it's only jan 13.

well hopefully everyone can get in on the action. it's pretty clear at this point there's re-enhancement going on of the precip, but rates n/w of 95 are tbd. dendrites have reappeared imby, but it's not moderate which will probably be needed to get to those 2-3" totals.

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well. 3" would be pretty legit, though. i would take that and call it a storm.

you can see the squeeze play going on and i think we're in a pretty decent spot for it. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

just got back from a nice little hike through cabin john. outstanding scenery. 5.5" was about the average. round 2 or 3 or whatever it is at this point looks very appealing at the moment. not sure how far north and west is goes, but can't underestimate a mild atlantic. should be interesting to see how much moisture can get thrown back here.

Around 5.5” here.