87storms

agreed. i don't recall too many big storm setups with that type of look, but light/moderate seems doable. might need the northeast squasher to be further north/west to allow more overrunning out ahead of this system, so we don't end up with a virga fest.

agreed, even a good pattern doesn't mean we get every storm, as we all know. lots of rust showing up in this thread, too. since when did we start getting heavily invested in storms 6-7 days out? the 500 pattern even during the hits for next weekend was a little squashy. still think this could turn into a moderate event, but it's too early to know. best thing to do at this point is track the pattern change because the one we've been in has sucked for most of the east coast. well, for snow at least. i've actually kinda enjoyed not having snow covered courts/trails for the time being, though i think i'm finally ready for some colorado-style powder.

need the southern energy to be legit because there's a kicker coming from the north. as is, looks like a reasonable overrunning event and clearly snow.

around this time last year, the potomac was starting to freeze over. that stretch of cold temps was brutal. pretty remarkable difference between last year and this year so far, though last year we ended up not doing well in the snow dept. maybe this year it's flip flopped. mild start, but snowier finish.

felt like march outside today. no complaints here. i've always been in the "if it's not gonna snow, throw me some 50 degree temps" camp.

if it's gonna rain, i like the idea of temps in the 50s tomorrow. wondering if this ends up being a midwest winter. the next few weeks will speak volumes as to how this winter turns out.

if the gfs is right, could be a decent soaker tomorrow, most of it in a 6 hour window. it's showing 2" totals, though somewhat of a narrow stripe, so we'll see how it pans out. nam isn't as impressive with the totals and seems to favor the n/w burbs, but yea...more rain.

what's just as impressive is how little of that was snow, though mostly because that pattern kicked into gear in the spring/summer.

i actually don't really care all that much as long as we get 2-3 decent events. i tell everyone who doesn't know much about this area to expect that every year. 2-3 minor to moderate events is typically on average (in my mind at least) what the dc metro area is good for in every single winter, so yes, things could still change because it doesn't take longer than a 2-3 week window to get our 2-3 events. we're a fringe snowtown. that's how we roll.

so how's next winter looking?

2-3 events. i don't need 8-10 snow days, and as fun as blizzards are, they take a while to clear out which has its cons. 6-10" events are the sweet spot. i'd take 2-3 of those every season and call it a winter.

might have to keep an eye on sunday. not sure what the euro showed, but that can sometimes be a sneaky setup for this area.

elmer t lee might be the next one on my list to try, but it's also difficult to find. if anyone knows where to find it, i'm interested. moco liquor said i'd need to enter a lottery lol.

looks like 12z ejects some energy out ahead of the west coast low versus 6z which holds it back and produces a cutter. not sure which option would work out better as we get closer. temps ahead of the 12/30 event look doable.

2-3" is acceptable, but grass coverer has always been my general threshold. looks like the midwest is in for some fun tracking the next 2 weeks and then maybe we get into our pattern. i agree with chill that if the pattern becomes favorable starting early january, you really can't ask for better timing. that's the start of our wheelhouse.

fun weather day

i hope so. that sounds awesome. today was cooler than i expected. also, radar looks real good...would have been a mecs/hecs for this region.

1996 was the mid atlantic mother ship event, but 2016 was the best snowstorm from start to finish. i stayed in the light snow during the lull so that helped. it's probably my #1 storm now, simply because there was little if any sleet. just a good ole fashioned blizzard. 96 and 03 round out my top 3 with feb '10 a close 4th. i do flip flop on these rankings, so ask me in a year and these might be shuffled primarily because they were all great in their own way.

i don't know, 2" of ice (freezing rain that is) would be pretty wild lol. i don't remember any ice like that since 94, though we've had some legit glazers since.

blanton's really is hilariously difficult to find. you have to call almost the same day as the shipments arrive now to get it. that distillery must be killin' it and/or they don't make enough. probably both.

yea, i literally forgot about 16/17 being pretty bad for snow lol. last winter was also weak sauce. it's certainly possible to have 3 subpar winters in a row, but we're generally a legit precip town. whether we're a "cold enough to snow" town is debatable. i lean towards fringe snowtown, but it's a roll of the dice and i would venture to guess we get at least as much rain as we do snow in the winter. add all that up and it makes sense why we're hit/miss, 50/50 usually when it comes to snow.

i should have looked at this first... https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf we're due.

dang, i forgot about '16/17 being pretty crappy lol. jan '16 is clearly still in my mind. anyway...my thoughts on we normally suck at snow until january still stands. and i'm in for the xmas eve light overrunning event.

feels like we've had several crappy winters in a row, but really it was only last winter ('16 was worth 2 winters anyway). and anyone who's lived here long enough to tolerate the traffic and cost of living knows we are generally awful at snow until january. if we get a couple of inches in december that is a win...kinda like the wizards at this point...take any win you can get. edit: '16 was worth 3 winters...maybe 5.

i'm actually craving a mild day at this point. looks like east breeze prevails tomorrow, but friday could be the day to at least get some southerly breeze (even if it's damp). my other hope is that it's not too windy saturday.