87storms

just got back from a nice little hike through cabin john. outstanding scenery. 5.5" was about the average. round 2 or 3 or whatever it is at this point looks very appealing at the moment. not sure how far north and west is goes, but can't underestimate a mild atlantic. should be interesting to see how much moisture can get thrown back here.

Around 5.5” here.

looks pretty awesome outside. will need to get out measure and take a stroll/pics soon.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html the upper level energy that originally looked like it would become a pancake is still spinning its way towards our area. still have that piece to move through, which should add enough lift to allow some backbuilding of the precip. just how far north and west of 95 it occurs is a wildcard.

nope. ull energy still needs to move through.

some of that upper level energy enters the area in the next couple hours, so that should be when the precip fills back in.

Just saw the sun peak through which would normally suck during a snowstorm but it was still snowing which made it look pretty cool. Clearly there’s some atmospheric reshuffling going on as the coastal takes over so hopefully it throws back enough moisture for the ull portion as the day progresses.

Now would be a good time for the precip to begin backbuilding. Dc to bmore should be ok, but cutting it a bit close for N/W of that corridor. Latest hrrr implies similar so it’ll be interesting to see how well that area fills in as the upper energy moves through.

i know, i just played basketball outside in shorts and a tshirt. took me a while to sweep the 2.5" of snow off the court, but i got it done.

gfs actually looks a little better than the rgem for dc through tomorrow. 0.5" is a bit further north towards frederick/bmore whereas rgem keeps it a bit closer to the city. either way, another few inches looks like a good bet.

gfs doesn't have much precip after sundown tomorrow. i think tomorrow morning into early afternoon is our window for the best rates.

Gfs looks good thru midday tomorrow for dc. Maybe a little better than 18z.

the mets can correct me if i'm wrong, but i think hrrr is radar infused data as well. i would imagine it's better used for short term radar trends (e.g., derechos).

i can honestly say i don't care too much what amounts we end up with, though i still think we do fine as the system takes shape and starts to transfer it's energy to the coast. it's just nice that it's a weekend and we have a long duration snow to experience. it's only jan 12. even if we end up with 2-3", we have plenty of time for a bigger event. with that said...radar looks decent. i expect the lull to fill in a bit to the west as the precip gets shunted to the east as it runs into that stout high. just got home from hitting the gym and flake size was ideal...just need the rates.

This is gonna be an easy warning level snow here. Thought it would take longer to start sticking but...mid January...

Some street stickage here already. Steady light snow. Game on. Edit: more like steady here and sticking to everything.

it really is another very healthy run. if it's right, then totals may need to be nudged up a little, but i'd side with the euro at this point. plenty of energy to move through all day tomorrow. could be a sunrise to sunset snow.

1" qpf line creeping up towards dc again this run. looks like things are pretty set at this point.

dc is pretty much squarely in the 0.5-.75"+ at this point.

nam looking good again so far.

Light flurries by the 270 split.

smidge north than the 6z run. at this point, i think we're pretty solidly into a 4-6" event. whatever else falls is gravy. gonna step away for a bit and save my energy for the show. side note: looking at some of the wind maps...surface/850 circulation looks to really takeover near sunrise tomorrow, so i think that's when the real good stuff arrives. just how far north it gets is probably the wildcard for the bigger totals near dc.

notably better than 6z, just not the nam. another nudge north approaching gametime.

rgem nudged north. it's not a wallop like the icon and nam, but a good trend.

I was getting hyped with just the combo of 0.5” qpf and temps in the 20s. That was a legendary nam run. Gotta take it with a grain of salt, but maybe it’s a signal we’re a little closer to coastal impacts than previous runs suggested.