87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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radar looks fun. i'm on the southern edge, but hoco to bmore might need a flashlight.
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finally broke my jeep in on peters mill just a couple weeks ago. fun stuff. as far as weather here...kind of a bust so far in dc proper. maybe the next line can produce something.
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The first half of the season maybe, but the problem is that for some teams that get off to a wretched start the season is pretty much done after 7 or 8 games. College football is even worse...if you lose 2 or 3 games early on you pretty much have no chance to win a title. The nfl suffers from serious product issues and out of all the major sports, I think it’s the one that could easily be replaced by a better product in 25-50 years if they’re not careful. The game is too slow, some of the rules are awful (e.g., kickoffs that almost always go into the end zone now) and there’s not enough games. Great sport, but a suspect product that needs improvement.
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these storms have loved the daytime heating. maybe part of the reason the short term guidance would be forecasting too little early in the day, but then too much as the day goes on.
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it's all relative at this point. it's time for a new pattern.
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another batch moving in. not sure how much loss of daytime will impact it, but we'll see. i'm pretty much done with this pattern. it's time for some regularity.
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this weather pattern is unlike anything i've ever seen here, at least in the summer. it feels like the tropics outside, and has for generally the last month. remarkable stuff.
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this week's rains have definitely been of the periodic wave variety.
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gfs says have an umbrella ready. region-wide 0.5"+ through tonight.
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looking at satellite it's gonna be difficult to avoid the rains this afternoon. i don't think the short range guidance do a real good job of smoothing out the precip. maybe they're too focused on convection.
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the downpour last night was wild. woke me up at 2am and it lasted at least 30 minutes. just kept teeming. legitimate stuff, but went largely unnoticed due to the timing. some of the nearby rain gauges are showing 1.5-2" of rain today and that seems believable based off of what i saw.
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we've done much better in the rain department than the squall department.
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i'm not finding this to be a particularly impressive severe season at all. i guess we've had a few storms, but not imby. last year seemed better overall.
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we're clearly in the boring storms period of weather. not a fan of relying on leftover debris from systems coming from nw. that's very clipper-like and we are absolutely horrendous at clippers. might need something more organized from the ohio valley or a frontal passage...or a mcs is always acceptable.
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ended up being a spectacular afternoon lol. maybe those cells hold together from pa. not very inspiring, but who knows.
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not the greatest setup today, but hrrr does have some activity early afternoon and then late afternoon. who gets what and when, who knows. the more sun fuel the better, so maybe we can get a few hours of it.
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yea, might be more garden variety. cape is decent. looks like late afternoon or early evening would be the best chance.
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looks like wednesday is the next chance for anything decent if we can get enough daytime heating.
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latest hrrr still likes overnight. might be one of those lines of showers that wake people up because of torrents as opposed to thunder.
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yesterday's storm was definitely electrical here. pretty good storm overall. not much wind, though. interested to see how the weekend plays out. nam is hit/miss with the next wave this evening, spotty tomorrow, and then overnight saturday thru sunday looks like a washout.
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flooding and white water rapids flowing down a main street are pretty different. i'm not gonna say i'm right...not enough knowledge in this area...but i gotta lean towards development off the bat as being a significant issue here.
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we may not have gotten much severe, though we rarely do well with that because we're the king of breeze, not gusts - which are usually more localized here unless we're getting a derecho (and that occurs about as often as a blizzard). this is a palm beach airmass. i expect gully washers and some lightning. any wind is a bonus, if you like you wind.
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we can do well with storms in these stagnant type air masses. here's hoping for some good bangers this afternoon and/or tomorrow. the lwx disco mentioned lightning as a risk: The severe (large hail/damaging wind) threat this afternoon should be relatively limited given marginal lapse rates and shear, but a few strong wind gusts are possible with more robust/water- loaded updrafts. Frequent lightning may be a hazard given large areas of updrafts in the 0 to -15 C region, suggesting lots of suspended small ice particles (graupel) which would be favorable for excess charge separation. This could prove especially hazardous given the holiday weekend and lots of ongoing outdoor activities, so even though storms may technically not be severe, they could prove just as dangerous.
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still early in the season. all things considered, we've done pretty well in that category so far.
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finally a good soaker here with the new incoming stuff. no thunder yet, so it seems like that part of the storms is fading.