87storms

Yea you got me before I deleted my post lol. I thought about it and was like even the coastal areas are on the edge right now. General thoughts still stand tho.

Yea the overall setup really hasn’t changed much over the last few days. Trough is too far east. I’m holding out hope for a sharper/further west northern stream vort today but it’s looking less likely.

Beal got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

The ns energy is just too shredded. Need a better vort, otherwise it’s just taking a beeline right out to sea. Hopefully the euro holds bc it’s now 3 days away.

Well at least it’ll be good surfing weather.

I was thinking the intellivision (maybe even burgertime).

There’s still a trend, but more so in regards to initialization of one run (actual) compared to where the previous run expected those initialized data points to be. It’s a matter of semantics, but I’m not sure what other word you can use other than trend.

Re scotch, I do like glenfiddich products…maybe there’s just less peat. GF14 was a good one. Also enjoyed green spot Irish whisky…tried that one a few months ago.

Noted, thx!

I still can’t get past the peat/smoke in scotch, but it is smooth. I may have to go on an eagle rare search soon, though. That was recommended to me here and still in my rotation.

My basketball analogy isn’t gaining a lot of traction so far lol. I can’t be the only hoops junkie here.

I forgot about this thread.

It’s a tie at the end of the 3rd quarter and a win gets us into the playoffs. Each run for the next day is 3 mins each. The game plan is to win at least 3 of those, or we go home. Or something like that.

i feel like i've been working 2 jobs this week. i'm ready for some model consensus.

damn near gets us in the comma head this run.

the question i have is how far west can the coastal reasonably come? will the storm have a chance to go north more than advertised before being shunted to the east? there is a southern energy component to this which is why we're not getting skunked on the models compared to other moisture starved clipper to miller b screwjobs. at this point, really won't take much of a westward shift, but how much is really possible given the suppressive highs to the northwest?

all i know is that i hope the pbp doesn't involve the word "east".

the northern piece is the one to pay attention to imo. want that to dive in further west/south (which looks like it is slightly doing so far).

looks a little better so far...slightly west'er/more consolidated.

need that energy diving in from the dakotas to be a little further west. it's a close shave for sure.

it bombs out late, but it's workable. need a closer to the coast track, most likely. it's becoming a little clearer what's needed for this system to work out here.

the more i look at this system, the more i think we (folks west of i95) want to rely on a more vigorous ns sw (the northern piece). i'm basing this on as-is...obviously, if that piece dives in further west, we're golden, but that's not the case at least on the gfs. so "as-is", i'm in agreement with what others have said that we may want to bank on that energy being legit enough to provide us with a classic "clipper-like" event for the western folks and then if the phase can occur soon enough to toss precip back against the mountains, then big bonus.

That’ll do some things

i think we should toss that one lol.

yea i'm just saying it might not take much to get a better solution. imo 12z looked kinda wonky to an extent. how often is a trough that narrow like the gfs showed.