87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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one of the things that concerns me a bit up here (and this is non emo; trying to be science based) is the nw wind and subsequent dry air. not only would i imagine that being part of the reason for the cutoff, but i can't recall too many storms that arrived right on the heels of a cold front (and it's still a little breezy out there). whatever happens, it's an interesting setup to track.
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the nam is obviously meant to key in on the heavier stuff and will overdo the precip amounts (and underdo the lighter stuff) while the hrrr jumps around all the over the place (and is at least partly driven by radar trends, if i remember correctly). i gotta think a mix of the euro/gfs is the best strategy at this point, along with nowcasting.
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better than frederick...which appears to be on the edge of virga or 1". i wouldn't be surprised if a secondary, elevation enhanced band forms somewhere from frederick to germantown and onto the ene. that's what i'm banking on. if not, so be it.
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Was just searching for it lol
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I think the current model outputs are ridiculous and overdone. That take doesn’t belong in the other thread but it’s in the 50s right now and it’s been generally mild for the past month. Rates can overcome things but I would advise enjoying your vacation lol.
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Slightly cooler up here (just got back home). Nw breeze picking up a bit. Would prefer the old fashioned caa/north wind, but gotta start somewhere. I’m kinda resigned to this being an I95 storm but hopefully light precip makes it up here.
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Looks like I’ll at least be able to watch the virga from Frederick tomorrow on the nam. Intrigued with what the 18z gfs/euro have to say. If they continue the trend I’ll be more enthused. If not, congrats dc to bmore.
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I’m currently shooting hoops in Moco in shorts and a tshirt, if it makes anyone feel better.
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Doesn’t look like it’s done trending yet with adjustments like that. Starting to like my spot more (less temp issues), though definitely looking primo for Moco.
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gfs looks fun.
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i'd feel pretty good along that dc to bmore corridor for this one. maybe starts out sloppy, but per the gfs temps/dews are in the 20s by around sunrise. if those temps/rates are correct, the morning commute (for those commuting) could be interesting.
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i feel similarly about my time spent tracking the wizards/skins lol. the nba is truly still a superstar league and the wft/skins/hogs/red wolves/whatever they're gonna be need to figure out who's going to be their starting qb. re weather...the analysis part is fun...the lack of control is not. learning can kinda cancel that out and make you more wise about picking which storms to invest time in.
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kinda surprised that poster even has an account. that wasn't a spelling mistake yesterday and he's done it before.
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Nam’s higher resolution could be keying in on the heavier band and chopping off the expanse of the lighter precip. I’d be concerned about temps the most further south. We’re relying on a helluva temp drop.
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Looks like I’ll be tracking light snow up here on the nam lol. There’s a couple of ways this storm could bust so need to stay wise re expectations. 12z globals will be kinda important.
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Yea gotta think the boundary is setting up further north and west than expected…or just slower to move in.
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Approved
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Lol I’m just a ba though do fill in for my sm. Definitely don’t think I’d want that job. Need to have some legitimate referee skills. I mostly feel bad for the devs because we have a deliverable around that timeframe though I think I need to present this time. It is what it is. re weather…agreed. Snow on snow for dc would be cool. We’re still pretty decent at jan/Feb.
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not sure, no thunder, but pretty heavy rain shower.
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in other news, the radar looks pretty interesting right now.
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now that's a lot more fun than tracking the edge of light snow.
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we don't do denver very well, but then again there's always feb 87 and commutageddon to rely on.
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the late week threat pops a surface low in a pretty good spot, but would like to see the trough a little further west and an earlier development. monday seems a little more of a wishcasting event, but either way both are a nice diversion from having to prep for PI planning the following week (if you work in agile you'll know what i'm talking about).
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i just meant for this storm lol. i like the idea of a better pattern showing up as we get into mid january. honestly, i'm ready to have some weather to track, rain or snow...though it's winter, so gotta root for the crystals.
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this one needs to start the nw trend asap.
