87storms
-
Posts
7,804 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 87storms
-
gfs was drier/further south, but not a shutout. trend needs to stop, though. 0z will be huge.
-
i'd rather sign off on what the icon just showed. precip might have been a little lighter up here actually, but looks like a closer track.
-
where do i sign?
-
it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution. it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north.
-
the teleconnections do seem to matter on a large scale here given the fact that we're usually a boom/bust snow town, but i think a southern slider is more at play when there isn't much northern stream involvement, or just plain further north. hopefully that's not the case this time around. as they say...12z euro will be telling.
-
agreed. mostly just want to avoid a skunk at this point. that was pretty annoying...though the models hinted at that on sunday, so it was at least somewhat expected.
-
i would obviously want a better surface low reflection/track, but it does seem like this one will be harder to miss for the areas closer to the m/d line (upper level vort max is further north than the last system). with that said, dc/bmore is looking like they're sitting pretty again so far.
-
i like my spot for this system better than the last one, that's for sure.
-
the nw trend is still a thing, though. happened last storm as well, but the northern tier needed too much work, too close to gametime.
-
this was the anti elevation storm. the confluence/downsloping combo did not help the northern tier.
-
yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign. if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late. we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds.
-
kinda looks like a hybrid anyway (like 75% B, or something like that)
-
i'm ready to sign off on the nam. i don't need a blizzard right now. northern stream systems can work (like they can work in iowa). we just need a good vort pass underneath us to allow for a little bit of atlantic influence (gulf tap is a bonus).
-
looks like the system will try to link with some residual energy down south. not sure of the specifics, but the gom doesn't look completely closed for business. probably need the jet dip a little further south/west, though.
-
i'll be completely honest...i didn't mind coming back to bare ground, but only for a few more days. i'm pretty keyed in on the friday potential...assuming it's still there after 0z.
-
drove down to bethesda on a "lunch break" to see what all the commotion is about. pretty snowy scene in cabin john. looked like about 4-5" there. pretty much nothing north of clarksburg/sugarloaf. worth noting that roads were basically fine the entire time with some slush on the side roads.
-
lol, i think the trough is a little more neutral/negative on the canadian. hopefully 12z follows. didn't see a lot different in the 12z gfs...not sure why it lacked so much precip compared to 6z, but it's early in the game. at this point, just hoping there's a storm...next step avoiding shearing...
-
i just saw it here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022010300&fh=108
-
helluva storm down there.
-
just saw the 0z canadian. more of that, please.
-
storms needs work on the 12z.
-
this is the only thread that matters to me right now. still would like to see that trough a little further west to avoid a miller b or a system that develops too late.
-
i know, right lol
-
this one is a wrap up here. system is moving mostly east right now. might take a drive south today just to remind myself what snow looks like.
-
significant rates of clouds here. radar looks beautiful dc south. gfs nailed the storm; nam nailed the cutoff. 'murica. guess i need to start tracking the next one.
