87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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Yea that 18z run ain’t it
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yea, and that's just as annoying as a sharp cutoff like a couple weeks ago. hopefully it's wrong, but there's a lot of consensus towards that high just not being in the right spot.
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different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end.
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we need this storm tomorrow instead of sunday.
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surface looks marginal better. maybe we'll get a slightly quicker transfer, though not sure that would even be better with that easterly component.
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sleet sucks, though i could do without power outages (though a little ice can be fun).
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The placement of the high just doesn’t seem ideal. Surface winds look they’re out of the east by the time the precip arrives and the 850 layer looks potent out of the se. I’m assuming it’ll be a battleground for a few hours, though I guess a quicker arrival or slower departing high could help with that.
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The clipper system looks healthy on its own. Might be a cleaner event if it didn’t phase so quickly with that other west coast energy (or if it was the only system). Hopefully it trends a little further east towards gametime.
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I’m going to rely on the hills of sugarloaf to Damascus to protect the Frederick side, or at least delay the warm nose.
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gfs hr 84 sounding is still really good for the burbs, at least. even dc is still below freezing at the mid levels. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2022011312&fh=84
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oh, i'm still locked in on tracking this one lol, but starting to see some consensus that favors a more inland track instead of a wall to wall snowstorm, but we'll see...who knows.
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it is faster, which is better for snow prospects given the eroding high. i liked that part of the trend. many of the 90s noreasters had snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow, so this isn't really anything new. even in 93, 96 and 03 the 95 corridor switched to sleet/fzr for a time.
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it's an inland runner right now. no two ways around it. the antecedent high is in a good spot, but then moves offshore too quickly, for whatever reason. really need a less amped system.
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yea i do wonder about some of the west or east trends mentioned when that could easily be due to slower or faster. probably why it's best to wait until the run is over to draw conclusions, too.
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Jan 2000 went pretty severely negative (it basically got scooped up by the trailing vort) but also pretty uncommon.
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So far this solution makes the most sense I’ve seen given the high pressure moving in prior.
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Most important runs in model tracking history today since yesterday. But seriously it’s time for a se trend, or at least a hold. Seems like we need either a less amped and a slower to close off low for an east shift, stronger high/cad to prolong the thump, or a little better west based blocking over the North Atlantic.
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Might have been Feb 21, 2015. Daytime snow too. Picked up around 6-8” I think.
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i think i'm go run errands now after seeing this post lol...just let it marinate a bit.
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yea, i could see that. this will be my first winter in frederick, so this will be a good storm to see how much that change benefits me from being basically right on the 270 split (which actually was a pretty good spot for summer storms for whatever reason). saw your other post re middletown...i pass that area en route to greenbrier state park. seems like a good spot and i'm assuming being on the west side of the catoctins helps a bit with these types of setups.
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That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol.
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Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone.
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I’m less than 5 miles west of 15 in Frederick so I approve this message, but still rooting for a nudge east.
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i thought about relocating to charlotte last summer. that would have been at least mildly annoying. i like frederick for fringe events, though i'd probably just get a delayed switch here if the low tracks too far west. i'm prob in a similar geo as leesburg, if i had to guess.
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Most important runs in model tracking history today? Looking at the gfs the only real difference I saw the last several runs is where that 50/50 blocking low ends up. In the better solutions it was further north and west, which seems to keep the hp over top from weakening/moving east so quickly. Still a few too many moving parts to know which scenario is the highest probability.
