87storms

if the gfs is right and we get a north trend, it would be a major snowstorm here imo. 500 is almost a perfect pass. the question is whether it's believable with cold air chasing the precip. i hope it's right, though.

it just seems to lack consistency and is a day behind the euro (generalizing). i mean, the gfs literally showed a major snowstorm in richmond yesterday, then backed off at 06z and now it looks like it's showing it again. it just seems a little bouncier than the euro. not saying it isn't a good model (i'm sure the stats will show it as #2), but if you had only 1 model to rely on which would you choose?

gfs is just clearly not in the same league as the euro at 5 days out...it certainly needs the cmc or uk in its camp. would be interesting to know why the euro is so good.

there's some energy in the northern stream that seems to act as a kicker/suppressing the trailing wave on the models that have less impact here. not sure if that has to do with the southern energy being weaker or not, but it's noticeable on the nam as well (as in being similar to the gfs).

disregarding not lucking into a nov/dec snowstorm by now, the gfs does have some trackable systems through mid january...at least until it doesn't.

what i've noticed the most (and maybe i'm wrong here) is aside from accuracy comparisons, the euro just seems to have less run to run variation. it's not always right and maybe the gfs does some things better, but it does seem more consistent.

lol, the only trend is that there isn't one...at least until 0z.

gfs is a lot different with that sunday system. icon hints at something similar with a low forming along the front, but euro/canadian just push the front right through with very little precip after the main batch.

if it wasn't for moving and starting a new job this year, amongst other things, i'd probably care more, but at this point i'm just happy to be able to bike/hoop so deep into the season. i'm definitely craving a snowstorm, though. i don't think nina is gonna move too much this season (noaa has it lasting through prime), but the pacific seems active enough that maybe a well timed zonal vort could work out, if nothing else.

Makes sense. Looks like banking on La Niña to dominate the prime winter is a pretty decent bet, but a few tweaks to the pattern could allow for better chances. At this point, as a weather enthusiast it would be nice to have a storm of any substance to track.

only a met can answer that, but the trough has been out west (it's been stormier and colder there lately) and we've been lacking a storm track that can tap into the gulf or atlantic. it's just been mostly remnant systems taking too far north of a track for this area. seems like this is a pretty textbook la nina so far with the jet stream a little further north than we want. i can see why people would prefer a +pna in this setup and why we'd also want an atlantic that isn't going to make things dicey along the fall line (rain to snow zones). i've just started reading more into this, but i think we want the mjo to cycle through 7/8 to allow for a more active southern stream.

looks like a race between precip and arctic intrusion. probably want a slower trailing system, which appears to be the case compared to 6z. i could see how this could work out to a quick hitting snowstorm for at least parts of the mid-atlantic.

some pingers here. colder than i expected, but looks like the dews didn't drop enough overnight.

Got a petty good bike ride in at greenbrier today (doesn’t look they they had much rain yesterday). Trying to strike while the iron’s hot before La Niña relaxes a bit and the mjo/pna trend towards a better trough placement for mid January/beyond (if’s and maybe’s).

i moved to frederick over the summer and my jeep has 106k miles on it now (though i could use new tires)...it needs to snow. re 2013-2015...i personally think those are the gold standards for long winters here...certainly primo level. maybe not the snowiest region-wide, but i know there were frozen ponds/lakes/canals both seasons...especially by feb '15.

it's a west coast winter to start things off (though they could use the snow). hopefully they can share at some point because i am ready for a snowstorm, but the latest gfs run is not very inspiring. pretty unusual to enter january with hardly a trace of snow, which is indicative of the dry weather we've had overall (the drought thread is the real show right now). on the bright side, trails have been in great shape.

yea, both systems are running in tandem, but too much separation. need a diggier northern stream instead of a continuation of what we've seen for the last month or two. at least we've gotten a few days of sunshine. i'll take that over what we had for the last month even if it takes us out of the clipper game...because that wasn't working anyway.

2nd round of gusts moving through right now.

Looking healthy for Moco/hoco

The northern md crew will know when this moves through. Gusts were fairly brief but noticeable. Still breezy out there. Brief, welcoming shower.

Winds kicked up nicely with this line.

Looks like that line west of Hagerstown is the one to watch.

Radar looks miserable but maybe that line of storms depicted on the nam will come to fruition. This dry pattern has been tough to break. Could use the rain tho. The wind…not so much.

loving what i'm seeing for the upcoming forecast. it probably does need to rain, though. hit up little bennett yesterday and the trail was in superb shape. even the typical muddy areas were drying up. today: seeing some peeks of sun off of route 15. but still mostly cloudy and satellite indicates that'll probably be the case today...again.

yea, and i try to bike during the week, but the earlier sunset and work meetings is making that more challenging, so i'm relying on at least some vitamin D during the day.