87storms

Nice! Looks foggy from where I'm at, so I had a feeling it might be producing up there.

Actually, parachutes are starting to take over right now. It's officially wintering here. Gotta think the top of Gambrill/Watershed is gonna get a coating from this at 1000'+.

5 degreed colder than pending ice storm last week Yea, even if the mid-levels warm quicker than we hope for, there could be more icing than anticipated a day ago.

My cousin lives in Canton, so I'm gonna need to share notes with him. Temps look pretty chilly throughout the region with the CAD in place. If there's going to be an overperformer (at least temporarily), this has some of those vibes.

It's downright chilly up here in Frederick right now. These are times when I don't miss living in Bethesda lol. My elevation isn't too great here (300-400 ft), but it jumps quickly towards Gambrill State Park which I can basically ride my bike to. Long story short, tomorrow morning is getting interesting even for the immediate DC 'burbs.

This may have already been mentioned, but this winter (or season) somewhat reminds me of 2017/2018 so far. We had a pretty legit arctic blast in late Dec/early Jan, also during a weak La Nina. Not sure about the other indexes at that time, but it was a generally underwhelming snow season with only a late March system that dropped a few inches (hopefully that doesn't end up being the case this season).

We're in the reverse bust portion of the tracking season, so anything is possible.

It's hard to rationalize this as a good pattern when we're dealing with cutters. Obviously, there's some other variables at play (warmer waters shifting the storm track west, etc.)...or we're just dealing with standard La Nina things.

I don't mind the penalty kicks given that it's more difficult to score a goal in soccer, but the overtime halves instead of a sudden death seems a bit "extra".

Would be pretty lame to get skunked in December given that there has absolutely 100% been cold around (or attainable) for the entire last year going back to November '21. Another battle is against the GOM and Atlantic temps which still seem to be on the warmer side of the anomalies (though I don't how much that would impact interior sections). Re the storm prospects, looks like there's a way to score with that initial wave/overrunning on the GFS before a flip, and then again on the tail end as the front sweeps through.

I can't reiterate enough how much I prefer this pattern over last year's. Post-storm sunshine (at least partial) actually occurs unlike last Winter. Helps keep the days movin'. If I'm not gonna live in Colorado, I at least want a taste of it lol.

Reminder note: It's 7 days out. Tread carefully. P.S. I'd be happy with a clean sweeping clipper that drops 1-2".

A late developing Miller B seems like the biggest risk at this point, at least to this hobbyist. I've always been of the mindset that we do precip pretty well here, so get the cold first and roll the dice on a wave.

The upper levels were less than ideal for this event up and down the east coast. Need a better H5 track to help ward off the warm air intrusion upstairs. Hopefully the next system does just that and doesn't end up too far north (and Miller B'ish).

Just completed a longer than I needed walk, but am able to confirm there's more glaze than I expected. My jeep, the trees, and even a little wooden bridge near my place that crosses Carroll Creek was ice covered.

Ice accretion on trees here in Frederick (just west of 15).

...also, hoping the skies stay clear for the Geminids. Might sneak a peak at those.

Little nippy out, but did manage a late day hoops shootaround sesh. If there's sun and no wind, I'm pretty much game until temps get into the 30s.

Long story short, La Nina is La Nina'ing. Probably best to track each storm one at a time.

looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm. the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north.

Yea, but it'll start waxing just in time for the pattern change during solstice week.

lol it is kinda wild, but I think the main issue as has been mentioned many times is we're just not doing as well on the margins of the season (as a whole) compared to decades past. I also wonder how much the Atlantic is having an influence especially with the fringe events and clippers.

Getting some breaks in the clouds up this way. Could end up being a nice afternoon. Also...less than 3 months until March.

The GFS has some trackable waves around the solstice time period...so basically we've been tracking winter until winter. And it's only 2 weeks away.

Looks like a west coast winter so far, that's for sure lol. At this point, we're chasing the Winter solstice. It is early, though. And there's been cold around, but yea...extended biking and basketball season for now.