87storms

Wentz to the rescue. But seriously, the Commanders actually have some talent to build upon. The Wizards, on the other hand, make me want Baltimore to get an expansion team. Re snow...gambler's fallacy says we're due.

Got a little loop in at the 'shed earlier (Catoctin/Rusted Bug/Knucklebuster). Trail was in pretty good shape. Little slick in spots with some residual mud and ice patches, but most of the trail was very rideable. I'll be ready for a snowstorm soon, though.

This is interesting, but I do think we're too cyclical of a snow town for 30 year averages. I grew up in the 80s which definitely jaded my view, but it had really solid winters and made me think snow was typical lol. Chopping off the 70s and 80s is really going to make it look worse than it is, though there are clear trends in the wrong direction. Just going by the eye test, losing the small/minor events is probably the biggest issue we've been facing.

I think the median is important for the sake of trying to find out what the 50th percentile is. If you like snow and don't need the big dog storms, then you'd obviously want a higher median. Just running a box and whisker plot on the DCA data since 1887 (I know, it's not ideal) shows the IQR to be from 8" to 24".

This afternoon might be a windows open kind of vibe.

I don't know about always lol. Snow can stick after mild temps (I've definitely been proven wrong on that one), but this isn't just a day or two long warmup. We're looking at a weeklong stretch of weather that we sometimes don't see in March (like last March, which was chilly overall if I recall correctly). With that said, I think rates are the biggest issue here during fringe temps. We don't want light snow after a week of temps in the 50s, but steady/moderate with temps falling into the upper 20s would work, especially at night.

Lol, same. Saw your winter prediction...that's looking like a solid, professional forecast so far. We have a tendency to get snow in waves, so maybe the next pattern change will produce while we're in peak climo.

I'm not much of a beer drinker, but so far I approve of Breckenridge Brewery Avalanche. I'd approve of it even more if it was snowing outside. One of the reasons I like winter is that it gives me a break from the biking/hoops. Not sure I want or need 3-4 months (if I wanted that I'd move to Burlington while I'm still single), but if we don't end up with a Jan/Feb winter, then I might need to create my own temporary retirement for the sake of my feet/knees/back. However, the fact that we were able to get into the single digits in December makes me think winter is still attainable. That, and the fact that it's not even January yet.

It's been more like pennies so far in the lower elevations of Frederick (maybe 1 or 2 nickels in the Catoctins). Hopefully, January can bring an advisory level dime or two lol.

Really warmed up today. Just got an outdoor hoops sesh in. Tracking the LR is interesting, but this upcoming pattern is gonna require quite a flip to get back to snowy prospects. I really didn't think entering this season it would be such a struggle to get snow, but I'm starting to think my snowfall forecast is too high (was close to 20"). We shall see...still early and it doesn't take much to reach the average here, so there is that.

Temps already into the 40s around the area. Approved.

Yea, that definitely changes the game, but it does seem like we're not doing as well with the smaller events (i.e., stat padders). One thing I know that hasn't changed is that most of the data falls between a relatively large range (6-29 inches lol). We might be a snow town, but we're definitely not a consistent one. Fringe did this already, but the coefficient of determination is around 6%, so you're just not gonna get much out of running trendlines. The positive thing to take from any of this is that we still get the occasional MECS/HECS. The best thing to do (which I've seen done already) might just be to run numbers against the larger teleconnections, specifically ENSO.

Yea, true, though it does feel like we're better off just flipping a coin each season to determine the over/under lol.

Was out all afternoon, but I think it's important regarding the stats that the data we're working with is a population, not a sample. I wasn't even really considering confidence intervals because we just don't know enough about how the long-term cycles impact snow totals. If we're assuming the data since 1887 is a sample size, then anything over 100 is large enough and, per the CLT, all you need is 30+ data points to estimate the mean. For fun, the 95% CI using all datasets from 1887 on the true population mean (of forever lol) would be about 15-20" which is still under (edit: above) the mean we've experienced since 1990. I understand where both sides are coming from. It looks like WF is thinking in longer term data than 1887, but if we're looking strictly at data since 1887, then there's a clear trend and it's not the one we really want (however, it's just a correlation, not a causation).

Or a good ol' Alberta Clipper that actually produces precip once it crosses the Apps and Blue Ridge.

I ran DCA stats over the weekend for fun with a few starting points of 1887, 1950 and 1990. Just eyeballing from those datasets, it looks like the median is slowly decreasing and stdv is slowing increasing. If correct, that would make some sense and align with the idea of less stat padding storms and more hit/miss, larger precip events. WesternFringe can probably add more to this.

Even the 40s sounds appealing at this point lol. The cold snap was fun, but I typically don't care for bitter temps without any production in the snow department.

At least here in Frederick, last January is looking like 2009/10 compared to how we've started this season.

Mid-Jan to late Feb is our wheelhouse. It should be no worse than an Apps Runner that snows for 15 minutes on 45 degree ground along the i95 corridor before changing over to pellets.

That fantasyland Jan 6+ system on the GFS is a nice storm track, that's for sure.

Nice waxing crescent moon out there, soon to be setting. It was certainly chilly out there today which satisfied the holiday spirit, but definitely more tolerable than yesterday with the sunshine and noticeably lighter wind.

Lol. It looks like confirmed reports of at least sleet around, but the football stadium snow is debatable (may have been man-made). Still pretty wild and shows how strong this GL cutter was.

My first thought would be battery if you're going on 3 years, but I would think it would take a jump. Otherwise, could be several things. My jeep is closing in on 120k miles so I'm always concerned in this weather (e.g., my a/c fan is getting squeaky lately). I did replace the spark plugs, but I'm getting to the age of starter/alternator issues (still don't think any of those would be an issue on a 2020). Regardless, sounds like it's related to the cold, so could be a fuse or clogged line.

Whatever happens, the upcoming moderation in temps sounds pretty good lol. I agree with the standard west/east, overrunning pattern. That's our easy way to get snow. I've learned over the years to look at the h5 pattern first and I really haven't seen a single good one this season (note, I haven't paid attention to every system). What I've noticed is it seems like the models tend to adjust to a subpar h5 look as we get into the short range (e.g., we usually don't want the 540 line up in the Midwest unless we have a pretty good antecedent airmass in place). Regardless, we still have 2 months of prime climo left. If there's been anything that's occurred over the last year it's that there has been cold available, so an amplifying wave (or even a clipper) that digs far enough south could get it done (late January and early Feb 2010 had a couple of sneaky events before the Snowmaggedon/Mauler combo).

13 degrees per my Jeep at the top of Gambrill. It said 10 degrees when I got here so take it fwiw. Long story short, this is tuff stuff. Passenger side window still won’t roll down lol.