87storms

steadier here now that i'm under the greens.

been in a bit of a snowhole here. not gonna do anything with these types of rates. gonna need that next line to move east.

lol yea. you're only about 50-75 feet higher than me. silver spring into dc is where it may matter more. kinda interesting seeing all the reports and how they differ with respect to elevation.

i think so too, but it helps having that extra 100-200 feet elevation. maybe i should go to my cousin's in olney for happy hour lol.

right now it's a mix. some sizable flakes and some light rain/sleet. borderline for now, but roads are gonna be slick for sure.

the column's gotta be pretty cold already. maybe a thin layer of above 32, but i think we'll be alright if we can get some steady rates.

dendrites

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animw.html

this sort of reminds me of a system in the late 90s or 00ish that was a slow moving front with temps cold enough to snow. the precip line was thin and it really didn't collapse east until the low transferred to the coast. if this ends up similar we could bust high similar to that one. if it ends up not getting organized in time, then that's where we end up with mangled, downsloping flakes. at the very least, it's an interesting system.

this is definitely of the raggedy system variety. i'm hoping we can get 1-2 hours of steady snow out of it. i'd take an hour at this point.

i would take the 18z nam output and call it a day. snow would start early to mid afternoon.

This event isn’t gonna get me down. We’re talking about a low in the Great Lakes with a cold front moving through. Boom is based on a low forming at the right place/time along the front before the cold moves in. So even if this only produces a coating, it’s really not a standard way that we get a good snowstorm here. The Friday event has more upside imo. As for the winter so far, it’s been ok snow-wise due to one storm. The problem is that almost every event has been a rainer. Not a good winter up to this point, generally speaking, but there’s still time to get this to a B grade.

just got a solid hike in at patapsco (muddy with icy patches). it's chilly out. this next system isn't going to be one of those "start out at 48 degrees and pray the cold air gets here in time". the temps shouldn't need to drop too much and the ground shouldn't be too warm. i guess i'm in now.

that's what this is. with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat. i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows.

might have to shave some qpf off to start with temps around 40, but they drop pretty fast. even if that's 0.3", gotta think that's a solid 2-3" along 95.

it looks better so far...trough a bit more negative. not like the nam, but better than 12z i think.

yea, pretty interesting nam run to say the least.

1-2" would be perfectly legit prior to an arctic airmass. we need to pad the stats at this point, similar to what the wizards defense allows other teams to do.

per gfs, i'm not too thrilled about the temps leading into it, but i do like that the changeover appears to be occurring around sunset/evening, and there's enough energy lagging behind that could produce if temps crash as expected. that said, there's been chatter about how much temps will crash given the lack of snow cover, so there's that part too. who knows lol.

the crazy part is if that low moved slower (it kinda zoomed almost due north up the coast), it may have been one of the greatest snowstorms of all time. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0

because of the last storm, i'm giving this winter a C grade. even if it doesn't snow the rest of the way, i'd probably leave it there, but yea...minus that storm, this winter has indeed been a letdown so far given the expectations/forecasts. there's no other way to rationalize it. hopefully, we can get another warning level event before the winter is out. it'll be interesting to see where we stand 2-3 weeks from now. on the bright side, since we don't average a ton of snow, it really only takes one big event to make up for it.

might have to get the blue bowling ball here first before we know what next weekend will look like. as-is, trough looks too far east and has a miller B look, but i could also see where that could trend better as we go, at least for the eastern sections.

fairly chaotic looking 12z gfs run. hard to tell exactly what kind of pattern we're heading into. i'm seeing a lot of frontal passages which isn't very inspiring for significant storm threats, but there's also some waves that could trend in our favor.

agreed, and i should have said "snowier" pattern. any arctic air is wintry lol. with that tues system, we may need to rely on some kind of a low to develop along the front in time for the temp crash. i didn't look at the euro, but maybe that's what's causing it to show a few inches. we might not know exactly what kind of a frontal passage we're dealing with until the weekend.

my hunch is that it'll be more of a squally type situation as opposed to any kind of a storm. temps are somewhat mild leading it, then they drop like a rock. maybe we get into a more wintry pattern thereafter once that pv relaxes. that said, if the euro is showing some decent snow, then i guess that's what we track for now.