87storms

i was just peeking at the gfs wind maps and verbatim (though i know things are more complicated than this), the freezing line begins to encroach on the cities by early afternoon at both 850 and 700, so we should have a 6-8 hour window of snow..which is pretty good. if it takes until mid afternoon, even better.

whatever happens, this should be an interesting storm to track the erosion of cad and transition of precip types. i'm being serious...it could end up being fairly textbook, so it's a good opportunity for us non-mets to learn a few things about that process. setup-wise...i think upside is a mini pd2...precip trajectory-wise, it's pretty similar...bust-wise, i think feb 94 comes into play where the prediction was for snow and we ended up with several inches of sleet. my guess is somewhere in the middle with a few inches of snow with the transitions to follow. might be difficult to stay majority snow in this case with a retreating airmass. even pd2 flipped late in the game and this airmass isn't even remotely as strong.

The pattern this winter has been a lack of a pattern. We’ve had to rely on perfect timing. Looking back I can’t say there’s been any real consistency as far as clippers, cutters, nor’easters, or even cold. Like the Wizards and Redskins, there’s been a lack of identity.

I think we need the trough to shift further east if we want a clean snowstorm. That se ridge is not ideal and I would assume it’s mucking with the mid level temps. On the bright side, if this can turn into a longer duration version of the recent cutter that started out as snow, then we can probably pick up a quick couple of inches in the cities.

i don't know what to think about the next week tbh. yea, there's no bowling ball 500 low moving under us, but there's a lot of precip (important part of the equation). i guess we need to rely on the cad being legit. the thing that has me uneasy is the lack of arctic air, but that could be a product of the se ridge and/or further west than ideal track of the low.

The only times the negativity really gets to me is when it’s close to gametime or during the event itself. At that point, it’s like when you’re at the movies trying to enjoy the show and there’s that obnoxious group that won’t stfu. Otherwise, the emotional aspect of wanting something you have no control over is just part of the game. I also think a break can be good...for any hobbies really.

something could be brewing for later in the week as well.

i think gfs might too, or at least be pretty close. that is a lot of qpf.

looks like i snagged some blanton's just in time. that is one pain in the arse bourbon to find. it comes in and is literally off the shelves that day. it is a pretty outstanding bourbon, though. four roses single barrel...eh, was a little disappointed in that one. that buffalo trace mash bill is where it's at.

i mean, verbatim the risk of a changeover is still there, but i think the trend is what needs to be watched at this point. the next couple runs are key to see if the colder trend is real because we do well with accumulating snow from gulf interaction. that's the thumper route.

i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted. could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone.

We’re due for a midweek blizzard. Just sayin’.

that would help. the gulf is open for business: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019021512&fh=114

tomorrow might have ended up lamer than we thought...temps are suspect leading into it and it's a quick mover. i'm ok losing that one for the 4x4 potential wednesday.

gfs shows that banana high look. looks better than the icon imo...or at least more potential, if we can get the primary a little further south.

neither am i. i don't care for digital snow. does nothing for me. we'll see...i can believe a thump to mix/rain in the setup the icon showed, but it's not a clean look.

icon snow maps look a lot better than the setup. it's basically a cutter, so we'll need to hope the airmass in place is legit.

i don't even think the wave has even fully entered the west coast yet. it's impressive how quickly it goes coast to coast, similar to playing against the wizards defense. i'd give it another day.

next friday is pretty interesting on the 12z gfs. that's a big storm look imo, though rain for now.

just checked out the 12z gfs. much better. i could be wrong, but i feel like the upper levels imply this could come north a tad bit more. just need that repellant in the northeast to be less impactful.

it almost looks like a potential wave 1/wave 2 situation.

that's a nice, classic event for this area.

i think the totals are a result of how quickly the storm is in/out. with these temps we might actually fair better with short duration, good rates, than a long drawn out light, occasional moderate.

it's basically a perfect track. north trend can stop now lol. time to lock this one in.

completely disagree especially near the cities. not sure if it's really a sun angle thing, but we're generally a rate dependent town. we're not minnesota. our temps are fringe at best and we usually need rates for it to become a legitimate snowstorm. light snow just doesn't do much here when surface temps are borderline, like Saturday is looking.