87storms

I can confirm it is officially cold outside. Not polar vortex cold, but cold…with occasional wind gusts.

This hobby is similar to watching sports. You want your team to win, but have zero control over the outcome. They also both have a competitive aspect to it that can magnify the noise. It might be why there’s a fair number of people on here who enjoy both sports and weather. The difference for me is that when I actually play sports (typically basketball), I can have at least some control over the outcome (it’s also a creative outlet for me). With the weather, you can’t really “play”…you’re relegated to just learning up on the topics and relying on models/data in order to not only become a better forecaster, but to seek a desired outcome. Fun hobby, but it takes patience…and probably too much sometimes. Personally, while I enjoy the analytical part, the most fruitful part of this hobby is when the weather is in real-time. How’s that for deep thinking? Lol

This season is being portrayed as a boom or bust year. The average is usually unlikely to occur because of how large of a standard deviation we have wrt snowfall, though this year I actually could see us being around that average. It’s just kinda hard to believe we go from basically getting skunked last year to an epic season this year. However, weather is very much an odds game and the odds seem to favor the latter for now. With that said, we should have a better idea by March.

The wizards and commanders are kinda like a -pdo/+nao combo…with a nw wind and some wildfire smoke mixed in.

I’ve got my Elijah Craig (underrated, cheap bourbon imo) waiting for me at my cousin’s place. It’s nice being the only whisky drinker in that part of the fam lol.

Might have to sneak in a basketball sesh today because it looks like winter arrives this weekend.

I like this kinda stuff. The only thing I'm wondering is why the comparison would be done between two extremes instead of the most negative NAO vs a neutral NAO.

Great forecast by LWX...post-storm clouds are a thing here and seem to be under-forecast at times... Elsewhere, the main forecast challenge is the cloud cover forecast. Dry/cold advection is underway, but daytime mixing is also on the increase. Clouds are on the decrease in some locations in response to the dry advection, while other locations are seeing an uptick in cloud cover due to daytime mixing. Current thought is that a stratocumulus deck should develop across much of the area in response to mixing, leading to most cloudy skies this afternoon following some breaks of sunshine this morning. Getting peaks of sunshine today in Frederick, but it's been mostly cloudy for most of the day so far.

Very healthy line of showers moving through Frederick rn.

Yea, and the whole argument is so silly, too. Even if the warmer temps are temporary, it’s still going to have an impact on marginal snow towns like ours (on average). It ain’t rocket science lol. I’m just hoping we can get the typical 2-3 significant snowstorms.

True, but we haven't really been good at scoring minor events the last few years. This year could be a pretty good litmus test to see what we're really working with as far as whether we get clippers, how far south the storms track, how soon the changeover occurs, etc. Last year was too much of a dud to really take seriously.

Around an inch here. Probably the most efficient precip event as far as duration is concerned that I've seen all year here...at least since spring. Quite a bit of ponding on roads and some of the nearby fields.

I think the big question for the cities is whether we're heading towards being the new Richmond or if CC hasn't impacted the region enough to make a notable difference. I could picture a middle ground where some of the storms in our STJ boom years become mixers, which ultimately will keep snowfall accumulations down. We'll still get clean snowstorms from start to finish, but it's hard to believe given the change in SSTs/UHI/whatever/etc. that there won't be any impacts to the snowfall totals. With that said, if CC does increase the amount of precip we get, then any one well-timed storm could cancel out a couple of the minor events that produce pingers and tree glazers instead of hiding grass blades.

Classic, mid-Atlantic November day. Rainy and dreary lol. Though yes, we do need it.

BWI: 16.1 DCA: 14.2 IAD: 18.1 RIC: 7.5 Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.7 El Nino has been cranking, but I'm a believer that patterns can take some time to change. Aside from the drought conditions, the SER and SSTs have been a thing lately. I could see this being one of those winters with a number of snow to mix/rain scenarios, especially if the storm track continues to favor a NW track. Not sure I'm getting blizzard vibes this season, but we are due for one, which would obviously change the entire contest lol.

We’re right near the southern edge of true winters where it can “usually” reliably snow, at least a little bit. I don’t think I’d want what NE/New England gets…it’s like a 5 month winter. More clouds, too. Maybe when I retire.

Today is a perfect example of how much better it feels when the sun is out and temps are in the 50s/below.

Aside from the smoke, which seems to have faded a little bit, today's weather is making a run at legendary status.

It's gonna be 84 years that I think about that jeep lol. Those cars sure our addictive. Maybe I'll reup in a couple years when/if new 2 door Wranglers with crank windows and no power locks are under 30k (smh at this economy).

A snowstorm would be cool, but it would also be cool if we can get an actual storm of any kind lol. With that said, I sold my jeep the other day (which was not fun, but it was time), so I expect this to be one helluva winter.

Definitely smoky in Frederick. This year's weather continues the base state of boring/dry/breezy. El Nino needs to find a way to break this pattern.

Sunny and approaching the 50s here. Approved.

If several snowstorms with sunny/mild weather in between is our new climate, then I won't need to move to Colorado.

I'm still not ready for snow yet...give me one more month lol.

Little batch of rain incoming.