87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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The problem is that even in a normal winter, south of the M/D line is touch and go when it comes to a SECS/MECS. This upcoming pattern looks promising for the midwest to PA/northeast, but it's not easy to snow here even in January. I'm definitely in the camp that would like to suppression show up first and bank on the jet being a little further north than advertised.
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Only a few weeks left of tracking, might as well go all in. Looks like a semi-zonal flow/blocking is our best chance to break the snide. We usually need an El Nino/STJ to get the big ticket storms, but anyone who truly knows what will happen beyond day 10 should probably be upgrading from armchair QB to getting paid to play.
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West coast still looks kinda busy/trough-y through next week. I'm sure the Colorado ski resorts are liking this run.
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Sounds like you're a blizzard hunter. I'm all for a good snowstorm, but mounds of snow lasting through April is a debatable cost.
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~0.4"+ in the rain gauges near me so far. Seems about right…been a few rounds of precip today.
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Legit ULL, too. I don’t think I’ve seen it traverse PA from west to east like that before… https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=08&length=12
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This post made me check the radar and, I must say, I'm glad I did.
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Side note: I've heard Bend, OR is a quality mtb destination.
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Yea, was just thinking about that today. I've probably posted my mtb/hoops days enough (lol), so obviously I very much appreciate the later sunsets. But I'm a "seasons" kind of dude, so it would have been nice to get the standard 2-3 snowstorms this winter.
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That first cam has me craving a snowstorm. I'm not a big skier, but skiing in that would make for a fun day.
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The west coast has been absolutely dominating this winter. This loop gives a good example of the general jet stream flow all winter...trough to the west, ridge to the east. https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_large.mp4
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Relying on snow in mid-March when it's barely snowed more than a cartopper all season is risky business.
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Congrats west side of Chicago.
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There’s definitely been more sunshine overall than last year. I think one thing that makes this La Niña so futile isn’t just the temps, but that it’s been relatively dry. (I haven’t confirmed via stats, but it seems that way.) We had one winter a few years ago that was generally mild, but had a lot of precip which provided more chances overall. Now what would be kinda funny is if the hh gfs trends south.
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Chicken vs egg. With a better Atlantic, maybe it wouldn’t nudge the system as far north. The pattern issues (for snow) are shown by how much we warmed up today after the wintry weather yesterday and how mild it’s been (and will be this week). The cold/blocking up top has just been too transient all season long, but maybe we can get this storm to at least include a changeover instead of a wall to wall rainer.
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I miss the days when we had snow to rain lol.
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Even the Euro has generally ticked north with the H5 low. That trend needs to stop even on that model.
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GFS is a negatively tilted bowling ball of a low. Someone is going to get rocked to the northwest of that thing.
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Same or not, (imo) it's too mild out ahead of this system. It would be a cold chasing precip setup...which ain't ideal in early March.
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The trough looks slightly more positive which I'm assuming is better. Really gonna need a strong high to the north for this one I think..at least with the gulf open for business like that.
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It doesn't look like a cutter setup, assuming there's at least a legitimate high pressure over top...but I guess we'll find out shortly.
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Driving back down Gambrill it seemed like ~800ft was the elevation/temp threshold where the light snow was able to accumulate. Would have prob been lower had rates been better up this way. Onto the next trackable event…
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So I did take the drive…at about 1500’ in Gambrill and it’s snowing needles…no pingers. Not heavy…but it is accumulating lightly on the typical elevated surfaces/trees, etc.
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Visibility is actually pretty low now looking towards Catoctin/Gambrill/'shed. I might have to take a little cruise through there.
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My current ob as well. Light flakes flying from the south. It’s a good thing this is a quick hitter because it would have been a changeover scenario. Mazel Tov to those who were able to at least break the cartopper drought.
