87storms

Moving the Caps and the Wiz to NoVa is wild.

The rain shadow effect is prob somewhat exaggerated, but the Catoctins (while small) do rise sharply (so sharply that mountain biking national races have been held there). It’s an impressive little mountain chain. I drove through Gambrill today and there’s still snow up at the top and absolutely nothing at the bottom. It’s pretty wild. Obviously, the last snow was mostly due to elevation and likely not so much from upslope, but downsloping effects can be seen all year long as snow showers and tstorms sometimes fade as they sag south from the northwest…it’s a limited effect, but not non-existent imo.

And now we’ve transitioned to chasing clippers.

It had to start first. Well, it started everywhere except downtown Frederick and southwest along the other precip shadow locations.

Yea, but what's seasonable now? Our best setups for a start to finish snowfall is when we have a sprawling cold high to the north/west or a residual arctic high/cad setup. We're seeing high pressures to the north, but they're quick hitters. I guess we need sustained blocking (ie, sustained radiational cooling) up top to allow Canada to get cold enough. It makes sense that a less than ideal Pacific/PNA would make that more challenging than in decades past.

Is this the panic room? lol One thing I've noticed looking at some of the maps (like that nor'easter) is the cold air is occurring more so in "pockets" as opposed to long-drawn out cold snaps. It certainly makes it more difficult to time a storm and it probably allows for more of those inland tracks as well. Another thing I've noticed is that we haven't really had a bitter cold snap yet. It's still early for that, but even in the heart of winter we usually need an arctic high (for a flush hit snowfall).

Yea, but that also means we're 50% closer "digitally" to spring training and March Madness. I honestly only really consider winter here to be January and February. Any snow outside of that timeline is a gift.

The difference between 600’ elevation at the base of the Frederick Watershed and at the top is astonishing. Literally goes from nothing to near 3” in like 2 miles. Snow stuck to everything up here except the main road.

I actually can see the snow on top of Gambrill from my place, so that takes some of the sting off lol. They must have been cold enough to snow up there even with the lighter rates. I may need to take a detour through there this morning.

Yea, we’re in a little valley here...kinda like Hagerstown. I remember seeing an average snowfall map years ago showing some parts of upper Moco averaging more than downtown Frederick, which makes some sense. My elevation is only 300’, but within 10-15 minutes I’m at 1500’. Meanwhile, Damascus approaches 800’. The little snow maxes that show up in Frederick are typically over Catoctin.

Looks like there’s not even a coating here lol. I’m starting to think Frederick might actually be worse at precip/snow than some of the spots to the south and East due to the rain shadow/valley effect.

Same here. Need the heavier rates. Might have to wait until that final band moves through…which I might not wait for lol.

Still rain up here. We’re in the rate dependent phase of the storm.

The 270 split continues to be a microclimate precip magnet. I experienced it firsthand for years. Still seems to be all rain near dt Frederick.

I'm going to miss my jeep lol. 10 years of storm tracking in that thing. Extremely timely purchase, too...bought it in Fall 2013. Just saw the 18z Nam...it's actually much better than I expected, so I guess I'm in now. Looks like around midnight for a Frederick flip.

I'm starting to wonder if this ends up like 2018/19 where we snagged a few snowstorms simply by playing the numbers game in an active pattern.

it's like 2500 feet, though lol.

Beneficial soaker so far, but overall, this event seems a bit underwhelming. Looks like 0.5"-1.0" areawide for the most part and the radar is spotty to the west...at least for now.

Seems like the Catoctin’s may have a chance at that final wave. Elevation gets up to 1400’ there, so it makes sense.

I’m actually kinda retired from these stat padder, non-accumulating snow events, unless it’s pouring parachutes that accumulate on elevated surfaces. Otherwise, I want a legit snowstorm…at least 2-4”.

I heard a similar rolling thunder in Frederick around 9am. Thought it was a truck…might still have been, but timing corresponded with the heavier precip.

Not the most inspiring surface map for cold air chasing precip…but models > farmer style forecasting…so we’ll see… https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=bwi&endDate=20230203&endTime=-1&duration=0

There isn’t much of an arctic air push behind this system. Imo the higher elevations are in a much better spot to get a side of mashed potatoes from pollo.

Apparently, we’re decent at fog, too. Some fairly dense fog has rolled in here the last several minutes.

I’m starting to get winter vibes. We’re due.