87storms

I'm all in on this week. I biked yesterday and kinda sore, but might be spotty showers around tomorrow so I may need to cave and get another session in while the iron's hot.

Maybe it'll save us tracking time by being OTS. I'm kidding, but that should be the concern at this point lol. Who cares how cold it is if we're on the fringe anyway.

I think we should be tracking precip at this point. It’s not even a sure thing that we get anything from this system. We already know the uphill battle in temps given the 5 days of milder weather leading in. The 250mb map shows that there’s just little or no phasing with the northern stream, so how far north this goes is the real question. I’m hoping for precip bc I have the Catoctin’s at 1000ft+ on my doorstep…worst case, maybe I can drive up there for a hike and snow tv. Michaux would be tempting as well if the system gets that far north.

Today's weather has legendary potential. Already feels mild out there.

Lol. I'm actually more concerned about the cold chasing precip portion of this than the NW trend.

Looks like we're in the "let's hope for a NW trend" portion of the program.

Would have been fun having forums around for Feb 21, 1987. I know via the KU book (which I did purchase because snowstorms...) that was a bombogenesis type of event with fringe temps and ended up being an absolute paste job for the DMV. I'll never forget seeing the size of the flakes out my window (at night). It can happen (kinda like Commutageddon), but pretty uncommon.

Let's see what Lord Euro does. I agree, with a positive trough, this thing has OTS/washed out potential, but I wouldn't mind having something that's chase-able (something that's been lacking all season).

Interestingly, the ensembles are the opposite...at least to my eyes, it looks like GEFS shows a slightly quicker system. The wave isn't expected to reach the Pac NW until tomorrow, so might have another day of model madness.

Looks like the Euro is better with temps at 18z Saturday, but quicker to move the system out. Given how much of a drop in temps will be needed, I think we want more separation between these systems like the GFS is showing (even if it means a rain to snow setup).

That ridge in the SE on the 12z GFS is the stuff of legends. If you want snow, I suggest not even looking at that run and checking back at 18z...or in 2 weeks.

Doesn't look like the GFS will get it done. Not enough spacing between these systems and not a lot of cold air to work with. These high pressure systems up top seem to have been too transient. Need more time for those long, clear nights to develop the kind of cold we need to not have to work so hard for snow lol. Still a trackable system, though...and 5-6 days out.

I feel like AN precip/BN temps would make friends with most people on the board (I'm assuming that's what you meant). I'm not rooting for it to be hot. My threshold is usually 95, but my preference is upper 70s lol.

This winter continues to remind me of ‘19/20. It’s just too mild and we have blocking, alright…in the southeast. It’s gonna be a spicy summer if that type of pattern continues…though the t-storms could be fun.

Looks like the Euro took the northern route this run.

This airmass is definitely a little punchy in comparison to the last month. It's actually kinda fun from a weather geek perspective, but not so fun if you have to be outside in it for too long. What's even more impressive is how quick it's expected to warmup. That PV is a straight up hit and run with the wind direction shifting to the south as early as tomorrow night...and 50 within reach on Sunday (assuming sunshine).

Was looking at the last couple runs of the GFS and at least via the Op, it looked like the main difference was how it handled the Pac energy midweek. For whatever reason, the 12z GFS being flatter with that wave led to a better downstream outcome.

Current regional obs: https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=bwi&endDate=20230203&endTime=-1&duration=0 Wider view: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/sfcobs/latestsfc.html

...for Madison, WI.

Yea, it's "spit freezing on contact" type of cold lol. I do remember it being a pretty cool resort, though. Pico seemed nice, too. Even encountered a snow squall of sorts driving through Albany (or somewhere around there). I've been to Vail a couple times as a kid and the skiing was vast, but not nearly as cold as what I experienced that weekend in VT.

You'll be aight...just gotta ramp up the ski lodge breaks.

I used to rock the soft taco supreme meals back in college...with the hot sauce. Brings back memories of the days when I could literally eat anything and not gain weight.

Those temps are right around what experienced in Killington on a HS field trip back in '94 (towards the summit). I think we spent like 30 minutes on the trail. I even started getting white, burning dots on my thumbs. I think we went to Pico the next day where it "warmed up" and snowed. It felt tropical in comparison. Long story short, that type of cold is no joke.

I’ve seen non-accumulating snow falling once and 2 Jeep toppers, one occurring overnight. You haven’t missed much.

We’re gametime here through mid -March. Worth tracking up to that point.