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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    Now that's a snowstorm. I'm done with the cartoppers. I'm gonna see what happens with that follow-up wave. I may end up chasing that one if it ends up being a late forming Miller B.
  2. 87storms
    Seems like such an unusual setup, but that hp to the north on the Euro looks pretty legit, so maybe we don't need the typical "H5 track under us" this time as much as we normally would.
  3. 87storms
    I mean, needing the jet stream to be further north in mid-March is better than needing cold. Precip is always easier to weasel our way into.
  4. 87storms
    Yea, the gom looks closed for business on this run, but it’s early in the game.
  5. 87storms
    Flow is kinda flat after that 1st wave, but still looks workable if that trailing northern stream wave can dig further.
  6. 87storms
    I missed the Terps game, but so far they're overachieving this year. It's gonna take Willard another year or two to recruit the squad that he has in mind. As long as they make the tourney this year, that's a plus for a first year coach....and should help with recruiting.
  7. 87storms
    Honestly, a storm that's chaseable to Harrisburg would be an upgrade over what's occurred this winter. If it's snowing as south as Michaux, I'm in.
  8. 87storms
    0z might be the most important runs of the winter since 18z. Stakes are getting higher.
  9. 87storms
    Oh, trust me, I'm all in lol. Only a few weeks left anyway...might as well finish strong. Hopefully, the Terps do, too.
  10. 87storms
    It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150 I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble. Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is.
  11. 87storms
    Is that a low or a weak high? I'm kidding, but I think a Miller B needs to get serious quickly off the coast before we can really ever benefit, at least in this relatively wonky setup. Funny thing is that it's still only Sunday and this system is 5+ days out...so who knows what could happen.
  12. 87storms
    Glossing over the 12z suite, that follow up wave looks like the one to pay attention to. For the late week system, it looks like snow showers as the upper level low swings would be a win for that one…which is kind of how things typically work in our favor during a pattern change (ie, cold front swings through with a test taste and then a follow up wave).
  13. 87storms
    The shading is the departures from normal. I think it's basically saying getting a low to track further south is less likely at this time of year. (I should edit this part to say likelihood is also dependent on the track/time of year, etc.) This chart is probably better if you don't care about the anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023030400&fh=186 (clearly showing a west track for this particular run).
  14. 87storms
    lol, seems like until we get the troughing out of the west, it's gonna be rough sledding for a snowstorm aside from a well-timed wave on the heels of a departing arctic airmass (the latter of which hasn't occurred except for a couple times all winter). On the bright side...spring training and March Madness incoming.
  15. 87storms
    It's gonna be a lot of raising of the poker hands for each run until Monday lol.
  16. 87storms
    The 12z Euro/18z GFS combo might actually be the most important runs of the year.
  17. 87storms
    Can we bring that 1039H to the Ontario/Quebec border (or just Ontario would be fine)?
  18. 87storms
    Congrats Midwest to Northeast. Having the 540 line all the way up in Canada isn't usually how we snow here without a strong surface high to the north. I think we'll need a better vort pass than that, but there's still time for trends.
  19. 87storms
    I actually thought about chasing this one. I've been wanting to take a trip to Vermont, but decided to wait another week and reevaluate how things are going around here in the snow department. Another reason I went against it is that my jeep has 120k miles on it and will likely need new front brakes soon.
  20. 87storms
    McClintock Matchstick bourbon (local distillery) has grown on me. I'm still a little iffy on the Bootjack (which is mostly rye). I'm not surprised by the latter because I'm not really a scotch guy and I think rye is a little closer to scotch on the whisky spectrum.
  21. 87storms
    Yea, there's optimism and there's atmospheric memory. I think having a balance of both (sprinkled with it being mid-March and also knowing that we're not New England) is probably an ideal route to take at this point.
  22. 87storms
    I didn't particularly love 0z Eps either. It's better than what we're currently working with, but I think the same general rule follows (that I've learned on here) which is you want that H5 track to be further south.
  23. 87storms
    We need the upcoming pattern to be more like Gelato, and less like a bunch of sticks and pebbles. Additionally, I agree with the general consensus that tracking individual low pressure systems at 7+ days is amateur hour stuff. We're better than that lol. I think it's best to just follow the teleconnections and hope that a wave break can happen at the right time.
  24. 87storms
    Still some flakes up here, but now back to more sleet at the moment. There’s some colder air aloft, but need those heavier rates. I’m ready for a snowstorm, bruh.
  25. 87storms
    Fairly decent sized flakes at the moment, tbh. Take away the 25% sleet and I’d classify it as bordering on moderate…so that’s fun.
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