87storms

It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150 I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble. Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is.

Is that a low or a weak high? I'm kidding, but I think a Miller B needs to get serious quickly off the coast before we can really ever benefit, at least in this relatively wonky setup. Funny thing is that it's still only Sunday and this system is 5+ days out...so who knows what could happen.

Glossing over the 12z suite, that follow up wave looks like the one to pay attention to. For the late week system, it looks like snow showers as the upper level low swings would be a win for that one…which is kind of how things typically work in our favor during a pattern change (ie, cold front swings through with a test taste and then a follow up wave).

The shading is the departures from normal. I think it's basically saying getting a low to track further south is less likely at this time of year. (I should edit this part to say likelihood is also dependent on the track/time of year, etc.) This chart is probably better if you don't care about the anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023030400&fh=186 (clearly showing a west track for this particular run).

lol, seems like until we get the troughing out of the west, it's gonna be rough sledding for a snowstorm aside from a well-timed wave on the heels of a departing arctic airmass (the latter of which hasn't occurred except for a couple times all winter). On the bright side...spring training and March Madness incoming.

It's gonna be a lot of raising of the poker hands for each run until Monday lol.

The 12z Euro/18z GFS combo might actually be the most important runs of the year.

Can we bring that 1039H to the Ontario/Quebec border (or just Ontario would be fine)?

Congrats Midwest to Northeast. Having the 540 line all the way up in Canada isn't usually how we snow here without a strong surface high to the north. I think we'll need a better vort pass than that, but there's still time for trends.

I actually thought about chasing this one. I've been wanting to take a trip to Vermont, but decided to wait another week and reevaluate how things are going around here in the snow department. Another reason I went against it is that my jeep has 120k miles on it and will likely need new front brakes soon.

McClintock Matchstick bourbon (local distillery) has grown on me. I'm still a little iffy on the Bootjack (which is mostly rye). I'm not surprised by the latter because I'm not really a scotch guy and I think rye is a little closer to scotch on the whisky spectrum.

Yea, there's optimism and there's atmospheric memory. I think having a balance of both (sprinkled with it being mid-March and also knowing that we're not New England) is probably an ideal route to take at this point.

I didn't particularly love 0z Eps either. It's better than what we're currently working with, but I think the same general rule follows (that I've learned on here) which is you want that H5 track to be further south.

We need the upcoming pattern to be more like Gelato, and less like a bunch of sticks and pebbles. Additionally, I agree with the general consensus that tracking individual low pressure systems at 7+ days is amateur hour stuff. We're better than that lol. I think it's best to just follow the teleconnections and hope that a wave break can happen at the right time.

Still some flakes up here, but now back to more sleet at the moment. There’s some colder air aloft, but need those heavier rates. I’m ready for a snowstorm, bruh.

Fairly decent sized flakes at the moment, tbh. Take away the 25% sleet and I’d classify it as bordering on moderate…so that’s fun.

Mixed bag of mostly wet snow/sleet at 1500’ in gambrill. Got a little workout in, checked the radar, and figured I’d take a drive to scope things out.

I literally just saw that as well. We basically didn't have a winter here. Aside from a couple of temporary arctic blasts, it was essentially just an extended late Fall.

Switching the trough/ridge between the EC and WC will definitely make things more trackable, though verbatim it kinda does look Miller B'ish or at least the trough looks a bit too far east. Regardless, it's a colder pattern...which is sort of an important ingredient for snow.

Another pleasant day in the temps department with what seemed like a mild breeze, at least to start. Looks like a few more days of comfortable temps after the cutter before we get our last chance at wintry weather.

I actually think I’d rather have a standard snowstorm than a HECS at this point. Would rather save the latter for the colder months and not have to deal with snow covered ground into April. Trails are all in great shape…and basketball courts aren’t covered. I agree with Terp that the biggest issue seems to be not so much about whether a pattern change occurs, but that we’re up against the clock/climo. We’re at a time of year where it doesn’t want to be below freezing for too long. Gonna need some really good timing to get a storm beyond mid-March. TBD

I need to take some time to check the stats on this west coast winter because it's the complete opposite of what we've experienced here. They really did need the precip and there was mention of snow around Vegas again today. When I see that, it's a pretty good indication of what the pattern is like in the east, at least in the short range.

Premier biking weather today...got a loop in at the 'shed. Really couldn't have asked for better conditions (trail was fairly dry as well).

Yea, they've been in line recently. I noticed it last week...a crescent moon at the time, shortly after sunset to the west (Moon-Jupiter-Venus in that order).

Pretty early, but not super early. I have a feeling the Wizards city jerseys will be a little more frequent going forward. I'm still iffy on those...I like the idea, but they went really all in on that pink lol.