87storms

Yea, I remember that year pretty well. There hasn't been anything close to the severity of those ice storms since and I also remember that extremely high ratio 2-4" deal we had. Dews were very low for that event. The sleet parade was the result of a low forming along a stalled out frontal boundary near the gulf coast. It snowed for like 5 minutes and the rest was several inches of pure sleet. LaGuardia ended up with close to a foot of snow lol, if I recall correctly (from news reports). That was an equally frustrating and interesting storm.

I was too young to appreciate ‘83, but I do remember being in awe at the amount of snow on our patio. To me, 2016 is the king. ‘96 and ‘03 are next up, but there’s some SECS/MECS sleeper picks that were just as enjoyable. For example, Feb 21, ‘15 was an overachieving, quality daytime snowfall.

Yea, I remember we had to use the snowblower for the 2nd one, though Feb ‘87 is prob the one that took my snow obsession to another level. That one was the mothership of heavy, wet snowstorms.

I grew up in the 80s (Silver Spring) and can confirm that it was the best snow decade that I’ve experienced. I’m sure being a kid probably exaggerates some of the snowfall, but I just remember there being a lot of days with snow on the ground.

If that happens, I'm buying a Frederick Flying Cows hoodie.

Yea, there's a return flow later in the week around the hp that moves through the region and doesn't appear to be a strong enough hp building in from the north to offset that. It almost seems like it's a good setup as far as H-L positioning, but too far north and west.

Agreed...until 1pm.

Hobbyist analysis incoming, but it almost looks like the HP setup is better on 12z than 0z. Seems like this is really just a matter of the storm being too amped, otherwise it seems like a workable setup.

Yea, I need to remind myself that I'm in Frederick now. This storm is within my striking distance...I don't care what happens along the 270 split lol.

It looks like there's redevelopment off the coast. I guess at this point it's a matter of how soon that occurs. It still looks like a workable setup to get snow to mix/rain, at least closer to the M/D line.

That would still be an improvement over this winter up to this point. One of these storms needs to be the table setter. We don't do "mild to all of a sudden snow patterns" very well. It's usually a process.

Congrats PSU...literally.

It would be really great if the sun would come out in Frederick for more than 45 minutes today. I've noticed throughout the year that Central VA/MD is often times the dividing line between sun and clouds, which is obviously due to the endless supply of systems moving through the Ohio Valley/Northeast along with the GL streamers.

We usually start with a table setting event…maybe that Monday clipper and/or Thursday slider lays some of the groundwork for that next weekend potential.

Well hopefully ‘24 brings in the good vibes. Frederick got snookered by that first Jan ‘22 event, too. We did make up for it with the next 2 systems…had several inches from each of those, but a mecs/hecs would be fun.

Jan 10 is fun, too, for the simple fact that it essentially takes up nearly the entire eastern half of the country lol

Yea that one underperformed in Bethesda…I think it was like 3 days of periodic light snow lol. Good for the winter vibes, but not the most efficient of storms.

I didn’t realize bmore has struggled with secs/mecs level snow like that. I think Jan ‘19 brought up to 10” in Bethesda. It was pouring snow for several hours with that last band.

We’re getting snow in the next 2 weeks and there’s nothing we can do about it.

It’s still December.

This is why I don’t agree with taking our prime snow window into March. I don’t find March to be very reliable for snow…yes, it can snow, but it’s more similar to December than February...at least for the lower elevations.

FWIW...LWX thinks higher elevations are in the game for next week (which is a step in the right direction if you're a winterista)... Another low may impact the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Most guidance is showing more southern stream energy with this system, but a split flow (suggesting it will not phase completely). With more southern stream energy and moisture, this may bring more widespread precipitation to the area. However, uncertainty in the track remains so chance pops are in the forecast for now. As for rain vs snow, there will be colder and drier air in place ahead of the system but there is not much (if any) of a high to the north to reinforce the colder air. Therefore, warm advection may cause most areas to be rain with chances for snow higher in the higher elevations. Will continue to monitor. High pressure will most likely return late next week.

In Celsius, no less.

That’s it, I’m quitting this hobby until the 0z gfs.

18z GEFS looks better than 12z for that first wave. Temps are fringe, but if it trends north, maybe the higher elevations can cash in.