87storms

Yea, I think ultimately we needed a fresh Canadian hp, not an antecedent airmass, at least for this particular setup. This was a useful trial run, though.

Just took a timely walk because midway through it started mixing with sleet and was all pingers by the time I got home.

It’s pretty wintry out there right now. Snow is sticking to everything here. Millvillewx mentioned the valley here can do a good job holding the cold in and that’s exactly what’s happening so far.

Hagerstown area always seemed like the prime spot for this one.

Still crystal’ing in Frederick. Mostly light/steady. Contemplating a stroll before the inevitable flip.

Steady snow with healthy dendrites here in Frederick…just north of 15.

Snow/sleet mix in Frederick and accumulating. Roads are getting nasty.

Snuck a trip in to Beans and Bagels. Just a sleet mix here. 30F on my car gauge. It is cold…maybe the heavier stuff will consist of that elusive white stuff.

I see a winter storm warning and 6-12” lol. They’re probably on the line, but will clearly benefit from a more mature lp off the coast.

I went to Winchester a couple years ago...definitely a nice, little walkable downtown. If I remember correctly, everything was kinda consolidated into one long strip of shops and eats.

I'm thinking Boston.

If you were to show me this 500mb map and nothing else, I would assume a rainstorm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2024010606&fh=8 We almost need an arctic airmass in place to overcome this type of mess at the upper levels. Winds near the surface are straight out of the southwest: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024010606&fh=7 I'm going to be content if I see an hour of snow out of this.

Once I looked at the jet stream, I figured it would cut. Trough goes negative too soon, I guess.

Personal weather station

15" is wild, but I could see them doing pretty well with this storm. Driving up some of those back roads is treacherous, though.

Looks like clouds are on our doorstep: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12 Re cad...

I need the 95 corridor to come through. If you guys are snowing to start, then it’s game on in Frederick.

We're on our way...sun angle has already started increasing. By the end of January, we'll gain 40 minutes of daylight.

I think it’s ultimately a product of not having sustained blocking. I wonder if this is the type of setup where the Catoctins help keep Hagerstown on the cold side…almost like a reverse cad lol. Maybe to a lesser degree the rolling hills southeast of Frederick help keep temps at bay. The latter might be wishful thinking.

Yea, I don’t mean the western ridges, but maybe the Frederick and Hagerstown valleys. I’m not even sure this is a typical cad setup.

The main idea all week has been for the high we’re seeing today to slide right off the coast and a return flow ahead of the next lp. There is the other high building over Canada, but that seems disconnected from the cold we’re seeing today (and too far north). Maybe the higher elevations can still win on cad, though.

This is yet another quick hitting cold snap. If it wasn't for this storm, we'd probably be heading into the 40s tomorrow. The h5 pattern is just too far north...really need a stout high to offset that. I certainly don't mind being in Frederick for this one, but it almost seems like Hagerstown is the spot to be.

I guess if there’s a chance for it to be right, this storm might be it, simply because of the fringe temps.

I found the nam to be generally unreliable for precip throughout the summer, so I just started using the gfs. It’s good for scoping out potential banding and I suppose temps, but that’s about it imo. I want it to be right, but I’m a veteran now…it’s hard to fool me lol.

I'm about a mile west of Rt 15. I'm going to count this as being west lol. Edit: I'm technically almost 2 miles nw of Rt. 15, so I'm definitely considering that meteorologically west.