87storms

The problem with today’s storm is that it isn’t cold outside. I literally shot hoops for about an hour before the rain moved in. Light wind made it completely doable. Next…

The precip shield reminds me of early Jan ‘22 where it didn’t make it to the hills of Frederick, but it’s not snow this time, so I don’t care as much.

As others have preached...regardless of the LP track or wind direction, there just isn't enough cold air. We needed an arctic high, not a regular/fair weather HP. Looks like the Blue Ridge could have some icy stuff, but to the east...we will take our rain and we like it.

I think if the whole system is further north with the rates/dynamics, this could be decent for the ridges.

I think we need a closer ULL pass for this type of event to lower thicknesses as much as possible…which may only help out the higher elevations anyway.

I don’t think temps were impossible, but I guess we need to be close to that ULL ala Jan ‘11 to avoid a November rain.

I’d be “mild”ly interested if I was living out towards Front Royal/Shenandoah. Otherwise, it looks like rough sledding for those east.

Is this storm over yet?

We can all live vicariously through the snow pics from Asheville on Monday.

I think I'm just gonna go outside and enjoy this wonderful Spring day.

Euro jumped at least 50 miles southeast. Looks like precip stays southeast of DC/Bmore with nothing to the Mason Dixon line.

Also, I heard the Euro is running.

I honestly don't care too much about when a storm thread is created, but obviously the issue is we're creating them at that "fork in the road" portion of the modeling when there's still time for significant adjustments. On one hand, it makes sense to separate out a storm threat if there's multiple threats, but with this being the only one I think it could have waited another day or so to avoid tracking debris clouds (which hopefully is not the case).

There's always the consolation prize of being close to the ocean.

0z will be telling.

I feel like it's the opposite. Normally, if it's in the 60s this time of year it's due to a southerly breeze/warm front bringing noticeably humid air, but today's milder weather was "I think" the result of downsloping/subsidence.

That's legit. I don't do road (I'm assuming that was pavement), just mtb, but I have hit up the C&O for about 10-15 miles before. Regardless, this was prime weather for that.

LWX is using the cutoff low verbiage, though it might not be the prototypical, meandering cutoff low that we see over the sw states... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term begins with a strong upper level trough digging across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Recent model runs have the trough digging deeper and moving slower bringing impacts later in the weekend. Saturday will be mild with high temperatures in the 40s for most (30s at higher elevations) and clouds clearing in the afternoon, and breezy conditions throughout the day. As the trough approaches from the west, a cutoff low develops over the southeast and begins moving up the east coast. There is still a good bit of model uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of the cutoff low. Model guidance is trending slower with precipitation reaching the forecast area early Sunday and persisting throughout the day. As far a wintry precipitation, model guidance is showing temperatures staying above freezing east of the Blue Ridge. Those along and west of the Blue Ridge have the highest chances of seeing snow, but cold air aloft could infiltrate heavy precipitation bringing some snow to the rest of the area. With this event being five days away, it`s too early to tell in the way of wintry precipitation. We will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer. Current guidance shows the cutoff low exiting the area into the Atlantic by Monday afternoon, but it`s too early to say with the slower trend in guidance. Upper level ridging will build over the area in the wake of the area of low pressure brining warmer and more mild conditions.

That’s been the buzz word. I don’t think it’s phasing with the northern jet which you can see at h5. Why it’s not…I don’t know.

I can put down a pizza with the best of them. I gravitate towards NY style, but the occasional deep dish can be fun. I’m like 50/50 on Neapolitan style.

This system has been flip flopping enough to where there’s literally been no trend. I’ll tune in for 0z. Cutoff lows tend to move at their own speed.

How’s the cirrus forecast looking for Sunday?

How’s March looking?

Yea, looks like it came nw...maybe significantly. Edit: I should add I'm comparing it to 0z, not 6z.

Yea, though mild patterns aren't a great indication that it "will" snow lol. I hear ya, though. Mostly, I just need sunlight. I really don't care for extended cloudy/chilly/windy days...imo, they just make the season drag (especially if it's not balanced out by snowstorms).