87storms

i don't hate the potential on the gfs for next weekend. the first wave looks like a potential light/moderate overrunning event. the 2nd wave probably depends on the position of the highs to the north (timing again). for now, it's finding a weakness and cutting to the northwest. not a tremendous amount of cold available during that timeframe, but workable. i have a feeling that might be the last legit tracking, though. mid march is pushing it for snow around here, and honestly, i'm ok with that.

The first part of this system is suspect. The good stuff is later, but tbd on whether temps will cooperate around town.

Per 3k it looks like a mid to late afternoon start time as snow and we become rate dependent in the cities after that. Gonna need to see how well this system holds together on its trek across the mountains. I don’t think this is a system you want light/steady rates with.

i don't really see how this comes too much further north. i think this is more an issue of chilly vs cold at this point.

oh no doubt. ugly trek during rush hour traffic, but an easy one on the weekends. there was a time in the 90s where elevation was key. this has that vibe to it. the cold air is moving in, it's just lagging behind the system...which is better than a retreating high, at least for the higher elevations.

what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations. kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this.

lol i'm just messing around. this area is good for variety. it does suck that we had a suspect winter, but that's what we do sometimes. hopefully sun/mon delivers...if not, we always have our potential hecs waiting in line.

we absolutely dominate cold rain.

i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this. i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew. we'll need a good track for this one.

this is another setup with a closed upper low over canada. not a great year as far as general flow is concerned, but cold is cold, right? we're probably just used to seeking out a particular setup, which may raise more flags that needed. surface temps leading in look ok per the gfs. i think it's the upper levels that are not great. dews may not be great without a nice high bleeding in, but close enough that we may still be in the game. really need this track to be underneath, imo. as is, it's probably an elevation event.

this was one of those events that probably happen every other day in the upper midwest/new england lol. heard sleet, went back to sleep. i suppose we got an inch here. pavement wet. i'd like for the sun/mon event to pan out, but i'll probably be done with winter after that. i'm ready for some milder weather. edit: looks like some chances through next weekend, so i'll give it until then. after that...bring on spring!

i could see how this could end up as a rain to snow system, but that's a pretty decent shot of cold air funneling in with a good amount of precip available. guess we'll find out at 12z in a few minutes.

It’s jumpy. Looking at the 6z fv3 vs gfs, I think the fv3 is a little quicker and further north with that wave entering the west coast Saturday. Will need that timed right. I could see how this could be over amped or just taking the southern route without much of a phase with the northern stream. Too early to tell.

Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5. I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year. We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern. That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well.

it sounds like i may need to pick up another bottle of eagle rare.

Snow is the ish, but 3 months of it is generally enough for me. I’m a fan of all seasons, but if I have to rank ‘em I’m going Summer, Spring, Fall, Winter. Snowstorms are the most fun, though, which is why I’m usually game. Severe storms being a close second.

I could see how sun angle might impact how quickly snow accumulates if rates are light and surface temps are marginal since (and I’m just hypothesizing) it may impact the rate of melting, but not sure it would matter much if it’s coming down steady/moderate and surface temps are below freezing. Of course, if the sun angle results in a wetter snow during its journey, then that’s a variable to take into account as well. While I think the level of impact is debatable especially in March, I don’t think I agree that it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about frozen water here.

plenty of warm air aloft. i imagine the clouds just held what little was left of the cad in.

lol, i'm jealous. 50s sounds great. given that we essentially have a bermuda high right now with the snow saver moving offshore, it's gonna be sloppy outside today.

i think it'll be easy if we can get the clouds to scour out. got a nice west wind now.

i think i'm already at B-, with some weight given to the nov event and the fact that the best snows this year occurred during the daytime. it's not bad considering we haven't had a great upper level pattern or consisent cold to work with. timing has been required almost all winter whereas some of the best winters we have the cold already in place (including some frozen ponds/rivers/etc) and just need a storm. the storms have been there...but the cold has been transient.

i'm at B-. bit too much rain for my liking, but this is certainly a better winter than the last 2. it might be better than '16, too, minus the blizzard part.

we all want another 96/16, but these types of storms are the reality. what's nice is that the concern of a gully washer rain has held off for now, so the first part of this was a legit snowstorm. those other great storms generally had a nice h5 pass. this was essentially an overrunning event due to a screaming jet and near perfectly timed cold high to the north.

legendary sized flakes falling now. might need another work break.

95-100% snow here again. didn't hear a single pinger.