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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    The wave cloud action is interesting, though... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12
  2. 87storms
    Clouds following a storm might be the most predictable weather to forecast around here, at least in the cooler months. The day will start out with a period of sun and then the trough moves east and you end up with a stratocumulus cloud deck…or something like that.
  3. 87storms
    We're a professional precipitation town...all we need is cold. I'm looking forward to next week's snow event.
  4. 87storms
    We didn’t have any big snows outside of Snowzilla in ‘16, but I do have a couple inches in my records from Feb 15 (looks like it stuck to all surfaces) and several snow showers/icing events. I was living in Bethesda at the time, so there might have been more further nw.
  5. 87storms
    I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol.
  6. 87storms
    The wind has generally been a bust here. Have had some breezy showers the last hour or so, but nothing to write home about. Maybe the winds pick up later.
  7. 87storms
    The wind has arrived.
  8. 87storms
    Still hardly any wind of note, but the milder air has made an appearance. It was chilly most of the day here.
  9. 87storms
    Yea we're en route to 2". Very efficient rain. The lack of wind is odd, though. I'm looking out my window and the trees are basically not moving lol. I was just out, too, and it wasn't really all that breezy. Maybe the valley is keeping that at bay for now.
  10. 87storms
    Barely any wind up here so far, but easily the best overall rain I’ve seen in a year. We’ve had a few decent events the last few months, but it seems like Frederick has consistently been on the lower end of areawide totals. This one is a true drought denter.
  11. 87storms
    Under absolutely no circumstances do we want to be in the bullseye at a week out. Forecasting has come a long way, but not that far. It's also a logical flaw to assume that a storm will all of a sudden stop trending once it bullseyes our area. That line of thinking turned into a failure with the last storm, for most of the area. Track the cold and monitor vorts. Well, that's my strategy at least.
  12. 87storms
    Frederick is doing pretty decent with this system so far. ~0.5" areawide. Looks like a little less further east.
  13. 87storms
    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&dim=1
  14. 87storms
    Precip/waves aren’t our issue. We do that generally well. It’s either cold enough or it's not…simple as that. I’m all in on tracking blocking. Without that, it’s a struggle to even get a clipper.
  15. 87storms
    For whatever reason, the upper level flow has been subpar for nearly 2 years now. I don’t know a lot, but I’m able to tell a quality h5 pattern and I haven’t really seen one yet. I know the 540 thickness doesn’t need to be under us to snow if we have an infiltration of cold at the lower levels, but we can’t get a high pressure to stay locked in when we need it. Maybe next week will start a better trend.
  16. 87storms
    That's the elusive look.
  17. 87storms
    The recent rains are definitely a consolation prize to the lack of snow. I'm actually kind of interested in the line moving through Tuesday evening.
  18. 87storms
    I need to see a vort sliding under our lat with a high pressing in across the GL and northeast. Yesterday’s setup was mucked up by the vort unraveling into the upper midwest prior to the surface low developing. With the mild waters the mid levels are getting warm nose’d almost every storm it seems.
  19. 87storms
    March is gonna be epic... March Madness, that is.
  20. 87storms
    I'm starting to get winter of 2018/19 vibes where we weaseled our way to the snow mean by playing the numbers game in an active pattern. Overall, it's just not cold enough. I'm not even sure I really want to track another one of those brief snow to mix/rain events anymore. There's been too many of those the last couple years. My goal right now is a 4-6" snowstorm...no sleet...just a simple storm like early January 2022.
  21. 87storms
    You make a valid point. Fine, I'll track it.
  22. 87storms
    I don’t know if I trust a midweek digital snow, though maybe that’s the new norm.
  23. 87storms
    Another gullywasher arriving Tuesday, too.
  24. 87storms
    Yea, I think ultimately we needed a fresh Canadian hp, not an antecedent airmass, at least for this particular setup. This was a useful trial run, though.
  25. 87storms
    Just took a timely walk because midway through it started mixing with sleet and was all pingers by the time I got home.
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