87storms

Fighting temps to the south and dry air to the north lol.

Looks like a classic cold chasing precip setup with mild temps leading in. Need a better high to the north, too...or at least one that is locked in prior to the precip arriving. The latest run seemed too wound up and also quicker to arrive.

I think going forward a snow to mix/rain deal could happen with a timely hp, but a clean start to finish snow might be difficult with that prevalent SE ridge, and a general mild Atlantic/nw track combo. March was great in 2014…but this isn’t 2014.

Yea, if you look at the surface map, it doesn't scream 70+ degrees lol...well, at least to this novice. I think there was just enough separation between the mid-level low and the surface low to the northeast, along with the SER, to get this warm today (once the cap broke). I will say, though...it feels pretty awesome outside. Good reset into potential tracking coming up.

It got breezy for sure, but not sure if the wind really produced as advertised. At least in Frederick, I’ve seen windier days here. I will say that the dry air moving in is felt…dews are low and I’m pretty sure my allergies have been kicking in the last few days, which is kinda ridiculous. I wouldn’t mind some snow in March to offset that a little bit.

Thanks, I'm probably thinking too much in terms of a Hugo or Fran (which, by the way, I don't want), but not really sure if a strong hurricane just spinning off the SE coast for 2 weeks in October would even have an impact long enough to help. A large scale pattern change makes more sense. We really are paying for 2013-2016 lol.

This is why LR Op forecasts need to be taken with a grain of salt. If you look at the 0z 2/19 run and compare it with 6z 2/21, the differences between modeled snow and nada are subtle: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023021900&fh=162 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023022106&fh=108 One model had more of a return flow, I guess, with higher PWATs and I suppose a better thermal gradient. I'm not really sure, but at least for a setup that doesn't involve a well-defined mid-level vort, it's probably best not to get too excited over seeing blues this far out.

@psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season.

Yea, I think the ratter part is also due to the jet stream being too far north and west as well. In colder years, we might still be battling the R/S line. That’ll be an interesting trend to watch the next few winters. In other news…speaking of jet stream, looks like a jet streak moving through tomorrow which could translate gusty winds to the surface (per LWX). This week’s weather definitely has late March vibes.

Shot some hoops for a bit. The wind is a little spicy today, so it was more of a dribbling session, but temps are very nice. All-star game is at 730...hoping it's a good one because the other festivities have been pretty entertaining so far.

The GFS shows the need for a west-based block or a very well-timed vort on the heels of a departing high to the north.

Yea, we can’t have the mean trough as far west as it’s been. It just doesn’t work with the ridging in the south unless we get a well-timed hp/vort.

I’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it.

Doesn’t seem like the most ideal setup if we want snow from start to finish, especially in late Feb. I’m starting to realize the importance of having blocking up top, otherwise these high pressure systems are just gonna keep doing hit and runs with heights seemingly too high in between.

I noticed that, too. I think next weekend’s system would rely on a well-timed strong surface high (CAD) in the right spot at the right time. After looking at the GFS and glossing over the Euro, it seems like it would be mostly an overrunning event.

How well would those ideal heights at 500mb translate to the surface up to 850 given how mild it's been? Not sure if this is accurate analysis since I know the pattern can flip fairly quick, but it seems like we would need some time to get temps where we would need them at all levels, not just at H5.

Frederick is the new Asheville, Bmore is the new Raleigh, and Charlotte is the new DC... ...at least until the PDO trends positive. Sort of kidding, but not totally.

North Carolina

Big game for the Terps tonight. Reese and Scott's interior play are the x-factors, imo, mostly because Edey is a beast in the paint. I like Jahmir, but I pretty much know what to expect from him, which is steady guard play.

This winter is the anti-2009/10. This was the winter where we truly paid for that one. It's all downhill (or uphill, if you prefer climbing) from here.

We will get our non-accumulating daytime mid-March snow and we will like it.

I'm just now starting to learn how to read the ensembles/height patterns, but it can't be a good thing when the SE ridge migrates west into the GOM.

Re jet stream...I'm just now looking at the Euro and the jet is about 100 miles further south than the GFS. Worth tracking if we can get a wave that actually produces east of the Apps. Let the model flip flopping begin.

My mom lives out in Henderson and called me while I was shooting hoops outside to tell me that it was a mixed bag of precip out there. She's already had more snow than me from the last event that left them up to 2". It's ridiculous. Usually the weather is the opposite from us, so I'm not surprised that with the mild temps here that it's been below normal out there. This is not our winter. Just look at the jet stream placement...even for that next week thing it looks further north than ideal.

Well, precip certainly got up to Frederick. Pretty good soaker...and probably needed, especially going into a milder week.