87storms

good stuff. it makes sense (well, as much as it can to someone who only took 3 semesters of college physics lol). i agree that the 500 chart plays a huge role here, at least from experience. i feel like this year we've been lacking with good tracks...for the most part. just not enough cold in general, which makes it even more complicated in march. long story short, it seems like sun angle would affect the overall environment, but if it's cold it's cold...as psu said before, if it's cloudy there won't be as much of an effect anyway. the problem is that it's just flat out warmer in march (sun angle)...therefore, generally less chances.

a hecs in march sounds good on paper, but i really have no interest in seeing mounds of snow through april nor do i have any interest in basketball courts and bike trails being covered/muddy in spring. that's for the birds. i'll take a moderate event though.

i've thought about this sun angle thing a bit. my conclusion is that it affects ratios more than it does stickage. a 32 and below surface is 32 and below, but i've definitely noticed that some of these march snowers have generally worse ratios (and possibly higher rate of melting after stickage as well), during the day. i could be wrong and having a selective memory here, but it would make sense that the sun angle would impact a snowflake's rate of melting on the way down. yes, we are capable of march powder, but i think fringe temps are more of a problem in march than january. rates would overcome that for obvious reasons. how much of an impact is up for the debate, but i think it's kind of irrational to say it makes no difference.

per satellite, looks like thinning clouds are encroaching on dc. also looks like goes updated their site recently. much more user friendly now. i did not like the previous satellite views/options. unless you work there, it was tricky to navigate to the correct loops: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

not here. definitely on the cool side still which is kind of annoying. was hoping to get to the 50s. could still happen, but need these clouds to break.

i don't know how much sun angle really mattered today. it was pretty cold leading in. it's the air temps that weren't great. above freezing or marginal temps in january would still have some issues sticking, just like how freezing rain is lame unless temps are in the upper 20s. i gotta think the effects that the insolation increase in march would have on stickage is pretty negligible. if it's late april and snowing during the day with marginal temps, i think it's a more valid conversation to have.

yea just kinda has that vibe. it's cosmetic, but good enough to feel like winter. i've only skied in colorado out west...premium powder.

very ski resort, base of the mountain type of snow. light/steady.

i'm done with winter after this event as far as cold temps are concerned, but i'm open to one more snowstorm (only way i'll tolerate more cold).

an acceptable rate of light snow falling at the moment.

outstanding in a light snow event kinda way. assuming this doesn't fizzle across the mountains, there should be some enhancement. i expect a couple hours of snow tv.

Radar for the main batch looks outstanding

you can clearly see on wv loop the main batch. i like the prospects for that one: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animw.html not a bad way to finish off the workweek. how much will actually stick? expectations low.

it means it's early march, and i'm ready for spring lol.

sun is peeking through a bit here. this initial wave is pretty weak. i see some hope for the 2nd wave.

i think the better push of precip comes later...gotta see how temps respond. this initial batch is a wild card, but we'll see.

radar looks horrendous. just hoping we get to see a few hours of snow tv out of this.

we had 66" of precip at dc last year and 8" since jan 1. how much of that was snow? probably not enough. we just didn't have enough cold this season, evident by the fact that we really didn't have any prolonged deep freeze. it is what it is. bring on the mild.

not the most enticing gfs run if you like snow. friday's system looks like possible snow tv, but i wouldn't expect much more than that with marginal temps, though it's chilly leading into it, so who knows. hints of a storm around march 20, but even that setup doesn't look great. eh, maybe we can still get a lucky system out of this upcoming period.

yea, the january storm was pretty great actually here, but the lack of extended cold really just made it not feel like a true winter. lots of precip...not enough cold when it counted...and to not have a legit nor'easter is pretty lame as well. if you take out the hype/expectations/overthinking, i'd say this was a slightly less than ideal winter, but not terrible. we got snow, but just didn't really have a sustained stretch of what feels like winter.

unpopular opinion...official snow totals are overrated. too many other variables play into my mind how good of a winter we had. any frozen ponds? how long did the snow stick around? how many of these systems piled up on a snowboard only to get washed away by rain after a flip? 14 and 15 were outstanding winters if you like cold/snow. this was generally not ideal. one storm saved it, but with all the precip we've had, it really almost felt like winter was just a really long, drawn out late autumn. i'm gonna probably go B-/C+. there were a few noteworthy events, but they were the exception to the rule. winter isn't over yet, but i'm not sure any storm will change my mind too much at this point given that it's already march...unless we're talking '93 or a reverse '01.

The upper level setup was not ideal for this. I had a feeling this is how it could end up. We need highs to the north. Instead, the 540 line is way northwest of the region. Cold is cold though so maybe we flip back.

heavier rates can overcome surface temp issues. the problem, at least closer to the city, is that without it ripping it's just a bunch of wet pavement.

flipping back and forth here depending on the rates. roads are wet. maybe we can turn this into a feb '87 later. gonna need rates, without a doubt.

i'm ready for a prolonged period of 70s and sun at this point, so we can dry up these mtb trails.