87storms

@psuhoffmanI don't have a degree in met, but I would imagine we probably want the Atlantic on our side. It's going to be more difficult by default to get snow if we're fighting off warmer ocean temps. Maybe that Nino will mix things up a bit and/or a busier Atlantic 'cane season. Otherwise, the idea that we'll need better timing of systems/Arctic air makes sense.

Late season snow is kinda nice as a lead-in to Spring. I'd be cool with that.

I vaguely remember that one being more of an overnight system while I was living in Bethesda, though I might have been at my gf's place in Arlington for that particular one. Here's the radar loop from it...looks pretty healthy: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2006&month=2&day=10&hour=0&minute=0

Woke up to some impressive gusts, albeit temporary. You guys are right, this has been a beautiful Januapril.

At least we have winter sports. CFP Championship tonight. NFL playoffs incoming. Bball and hockey ongoing. Spring training right around the corner lol. I was hoping for some snow to get some hiking in at Gambrill. It's cool to be able to hike the same trails in the snow that I've been biking. November in January. Maybe February will be February.

Yea, they're getting the action for now, but we're still cutter city. Just can't seem to get an ideal upper level pattern.

I thought last winter was somewhat underwhelming in Frederick, but it's really looking like a true winter in comparison to this season so far. There is literally nothing to track on the GFS. Even the upcoming system is looking like a pedestrian frontal passage with needed, but not excessive rain. We're getting La Nina'd. It's as simple as that.

If this was an ice age, we'd be tracking Bermuda Highs. Be careful what you wish for lol. I would like a 1-3" clipper, though.

I can see that as one of the reasons, but what then is the true cause? I see the Pacific mentioned the most, but at the end of the day I guess it's the overall SSTs (yea, I know, climate thread). My point re the northern stream wasn't meant to be cause/effect, but more so that we've lacked even simple clippers which by default would indicate to me our cold blasts are fewer and farther between (I'm not really sure what else it could mean other than that). Maybe we just need an El Nino to shake things up again. Now watch this storm trend south and east lol.

I'm ready for severe season and beach weather, followed by next year's El Nino blizzard.

Exactly. You need an arctic airmass in place when dealing with cutters, which (at this moment) is turning into with the HP sliding right off the coast. The northern stream has not been in our favor the last several winters which can be seen by the lack of Alberta Clippers.

Sounds like the Euro said you will accept your brief flurries you’ve seen so far this season and you will like it. The best part is March is only 8 weeks away. A nice HP placement is ideal, but it’s hard for those long, clear nights in Canada to build deep cold in such a variable pattern. With that said, I wouldn’t object to a heavy, wet snow. Those do look pretty cool the next day.

It's just something to track for the time being, though a closed ULL over the TN valley can produce a MECS+ if it stays the course/intensifies moving east instead of getting squashed (which the current modeling does). The HP and 50/50 low placement might end up determining that part.

I approve of bird watching. Saw a Blue Heron at the Frederick Watershed recently, which I didn't expect. I typically see them along the C&O canal.

You're not kidding. Was able to shoot hoops 'til 530 today (albeit during a little dusk).

Was just thinking how this seems to be a west coast winter. My mom lives in Vegas (along with cousins in CA and CO) so if things don't change I might take a Feb or March trip out there and hit up a road trip. I definitely bantered here, but man this winter needs to start poppin' soon before the spring training posts take over lol. Hopefully, that trailing wave this weekend works out, or one of them thereafter.

Those who based their snowfall predictions on the fact that we're still in a La Nina are looking wise right now. I did not see this winter coming in hot like this based off of the fact that it's been on the cooler side for the last year heading into it. Rough sledding so far. Now watch the weekend system turn into a redeveloping area of LP in the TN Valley that enhances precip in Central MD with 2-4" areawide.

There's no sugarcoating the fact that this a complete dud of a winter so far and less than 2 months until March lol. I honestly have no idea how ski resorts stay in business anymore. If it wasn't for the fact that I actually like warmer weather, then I would 100% relocate to a snowier city. This is the wrong place to live if you need snow every winter, period. With that said, there's still time to correct things since hitting the average only really takes a couple of moderate production patterns.

It's ok, this is all preparation for the 30 year anniversary of the March Superstorm.

Wentz to the rescue. But seriously, the Commanders actually have some talent to build upon. The Wizards, on the other hand, make me want Baltimore to get an expansion team. Re snow...gambler's fallacy says we're due.

Got a little loop in at the 'shed earlier (Catoctin/Rusted Bug/Knucklebuster). Trail was in pretty good shape. Little slick in spots with some residual mud and ice patches, but most of the trail was very rideable. I'll be ready for a snowstorm soon, though.

This is interesting, but I do think we're too cyclical of a snow town for 30 year averages. I grew up in the 80s which definitely jaded my view, but it had really solid winters and made me think snow was typical lol. Chopping off the 70s and 80s is really going to make it look worse than it is, though there are clear trends in the wrong direction. Just going by the eye test, losing the small/minor events is probably the biggest issue we've been facing.

I think the median is important for the sake of trying to find out what the 50th percentile is. If you like snow and don't need the big dog storms, then you'd obviously want a higher median. Just running a box and whisker plot on the DCA data since 1887 (I know, it's not ideal) shows the IQR to be from 8" to 24".

This afternoon might be a windows open kind of vibe.

I don't know about always lol. Snow can stick after mild temps (I've definitely been proven wrong on that one), but this isn't just a day or two long warmup. We're looking at a weeklong stretch of weather that we sometimes don't see in March (like last March, which was chilly overall if I recall correctly). With that said, I think rates are the biggest issue here during fringe temps. We don't want light snow after a week of temps in the 50s, but steady/moderate with temps falling into the upper 20s would work, especially at night.