jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Upton talking up moderate coastal flooding for the S Shore back bays and 8-12 foot waves for the beaches. Won't be a severe erosion event most likely since this won't have time to build up a large fetch but any amount of erosion at this point is really bad news. Nice afternoon for once. Flowers and plants are greening and blooming like crazy.
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Yep it’s crazy, and it must be driving these roaring Pacific Jet patterns that inundate us with warmth. In this era maybe the only way that changes is a competing marine heatwave somewhere else.
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Don’t think we can dispute the pendulum is slamming back the other direction after our big snow 2000-18 period. Until the Pacific meaningfully changes out of this crap SST orientation the odds are strongly against us.
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Yay Perma-Nina. The Nina hangover pattern never really went away this winter from the last one, we have a very -PDO and boiling equatorial WPAC, and now we have an official probably mod-strong Nina for next winter. Hopefully we get a high ACE and it’s an East based Nina or we’re in big trouble next winter too.
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If Central Park can’t get its act together with measuring snow, official measurements for NYC should be moved to LGA. It’s about centrally located in the 5 boroughs, not far from Manhattan.
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Up to about 2", maybe a little over. Outside looks like a swamp.
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Yaay. The mosquitoes in a couple months will be something fierce.
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Up to about 1.3”. Some of these downpours are crazy. My backyard is turning into a pond.
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No more snow, but of course the misery's nowhere near done.
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Today would’ve been rain any time of the year. This is a hugger that would’ve driven warm air in for the coast. Well inland might’ve stayed snow.
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The place that’s really due is SE FL from PBI to Miami which hasn’t really been hit since 2005 by a major. Up here it seems like the tropical systems come in waves like 2011-12, and 1938-54. We probably are due for another storm like Bob that hit eastern LI and New England hard.
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Well-plenty of Irish green for temps and this winter into spring probably rain too.
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67 in S Nassau around Sunrise Highway.
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61 here. Stunning! And this time of year temps often bust warm when we can keep the sea breeze away. No leaves on the trees yet is why.
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It’s almost impossible to sustain any long term drought here because of how many ways we can get heavy rain. And the average precip has been increasing significantly in the last few decades.
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Thanks for the reality check. There's very little cold air to speak of around the area going into this storm, so any storm we'd have would have to manufacture its own through crashing heights. If there's heavy snow the temp should crash to 32-33 but we'd probably waste some/a lot on white rain and getting it to accumulate. And of course this is at Day 8 anyway.
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If it’s a 6”+ event I’d be interested but if it’s some slop that’s gone the next day I really couldn’t care less. This event is still 8 days away and even though the pattern does become more favorable it probably just matters for upstate NY and New England. Boston will probably find some way to make it over 10” for the winter-that’s obscenely low for them.
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Good for them.
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Garbage pails blown everywhere in my backyard and part of gutter blown down. Pretty wild is right.
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Brief shower here. Looks like the bulk of it is south of me so this should be about it.
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Jan 15-20 was my “get worried if nothing changes” timeframe this winter because Nino usually is best later, which is around when the pattern went back to Perma-Nina. So that was the time to get concerned. I hope next winter is better but looks honestly like more of the same unless the Pacific meaningfully changes or we get lucky with blocking like 20-21. Hopefully we have a very high ACE this summer.
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December during Nino is usually bad here. When big Arctic outbreaks started dumping into the Plains in Jan and we kept getting the SE ridge, that to me was the big red flag because then is when we’re supposed to flip more favorable. Instead the pattern went to typical Nina which is lousy for us late in winter.
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When the Pacific pattern/SST stays garbage, our outcome will be garbage. 72-73 was the last strong Nino with -PDO and that’s essentially what we got. We did a little better since we lucked out mid Feb. But overall torch among islands of brief cold, and well below normal snow.
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Last bits of snow are about gone in my backyard. Only dirt mall piles left. Until next non-winter!
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@MJO812 Pretty sure JetBlue has direct flights to Reno.
