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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    In March 2019 there were definitely differences between my parents’ place in Long Beach and here in S Huntington snow cover wise and amount that fell. I had 10-12” or so across 3 systems and they had maybe a few inches.
  2. jm1220
    I wouldn’t think much higher than 10-1 for ratios especially in areas with high winds that can cut ratios down. The final part of the storm in the CCB band typically has the higher ratios, not the front WAA part.
  3. jm1220
    Yes-I’d say the snow average where I used to live in Long Beach is something like 25” per winter vs where I am now where it’s over 30”. The North Shore particularly elevated areas out to around Stony Brook would be the best region of LI for snow. Marginal situations typically buy us a couple of degrees for wet snow vs rain elsewhere.
  4. jm1220
    I think it’s the confluence asserting itself on these models today and causing the better SE trend. It really means business on this Euro run and we see the cutting off to the north. This will try to hug the coast and then run into a wall.
  5. jm1220
    Looks like a consensus building finally. Euro improved a little from 6z to my eyes.
  6. jm1220
    Thanks. Didn’t see charts with mid level low tracks but overall looks a little warm for a track like that both at the surface and at 850mb. The 850 zero line makes it to about I-195 I’d say. Surface temps also look a little warm. 1-1.5” liquid for NYC and Long Island, less than 1” north of the Tappan Zee I’d guess. Edit disregard the less than 1” liquid amounts north of the Tappan Zee, was looking at the wrong chart. Plenty of liquid up to I-90.
  7. jm1220
    2" in Long Beach on that map and 9" where I live now. My move up here may be paying dividends lol. (Not saying I believe this whatsoever)
  8. jm1220
    Impossible to really say without surface temp charts and the 700/850 low tracks. The surface low tracks pretty close to best case scenario IMO for heavy snow but maybe the 700/850 lows are a lot further NW.
  9. jm1220
    Yep, if the more amped models come south a little today it would be a great sign IMO.
  10. jm1220
    GFS has perhaps 50+ mph gusts for the NJ shore, but unfortunately for snow there the winds are onshore. Inland Monmouth towards I-95 may be worlds different from Asbury Park.
  11. jm1220
    Yep, hate to say it but there will be a crazy cutoff with a system dealing with this much confluence.
  12. jm1220
    March 21, 2018 probably
  13. jm1220
    Even the GFS now has the low getting up to near Cape May, so pretty sure that happens. Our outcome is what happens after that.
  14. jm1220
    It's just about perfect verbatim. Montauk might have issues on that run. I'm thinking it's legit that some of us will be sweating how far north the sleet line gets on the dual pol and it may come close to the south shore. That would be the blend of models right now between the more suppressed GFS and models like the Euro and NAM.
  15. jm1220
    Those 700 and 850 low tracks will really be key to seeing how far north the warm mid level air can make it. I have no idea where those track on the RGEM but if those go near or NW of you and the snow maps show 12"+, the snow maps are likely garbage.
  16. jm1220
    That said if you shift the GFS north 50 miles or so that’s still great for most of us other than maybe Montauk.
  17. jm1220
    I’d really want to see other models come SE before believing the GFS much. I don’t see this having a hard time getting snow into New England.
  18. jm1220
    To an extent but it also hits the confluence brick wall a little earlier and takes this ENE after Delaware.
  19. jm1220
    The GFS upgrade hopefully resolved the SE bias issue somewhat but it being on the south side of consensus is never great in my opinion.
  20. jm1220
    Yes and no. It will try to tuck in and hug the coast until it can’t anymore with the blocking. That’s really key- if it tucks into around Cape May or DE coast and then goes east we’re all fine. If that doesn’t happen until it’s near or past Atlantic City, we start to have problems near the coast.
  21. jm1220
    The confluence will cause the low to have to go east after a certain point, but the low itself will want to cut north as much as it can. Confluence does look good, so to me if I had to guess it would cause the turn east in time for us, but I can see how especially with confluence being a little less it cuts into NJ in which case we would mix from the city east. We also don't want the stronger S/W like others have said, that just means it tries to amplify more. This NAM run looks a little better verbatim than 6z but the 700/850 low tracks aren't ideal. 850 low tracks maybe 30 miles SE of LI and the 700 low tracks over E PA into CT. That would mean warm air aloft can make it north for many of us near the coast for a time and the dryslot comes into play. The 700/850 lows should be going SE of you if you want to avoid issues.
  22. jm1220
    It’ll definitely be cold and I think everyone gets pounded for a while regardless of the track because of the cold to start but if we want to avoid the dryslot and mix issues eventually we want the 700 and 850 lows to go SE of us. The more amped models have those pretty close by which introduce mixing chances. This will only be able to get so far north anyway because of the blocking setup and 50-50 low, eventually it will have to get shunted out.
  23. jm1220
    RGEM is absolute beauty for this area, but 6z NAM and Euro looked more amped. We really don't want that getting out of hand-this needs to start making a beeline east once it gets to around Cape May.
  24. jm1220
    Yes-we want to keep an eye on where the mid level lows track. We definitely want the 700/850 lows to track SE of us.
  25. jm1220
    Yeah, this won't be a big one by any means but having the ground be white from this would be a win. And hopefully it can help out for Wednesday by assisting to make confluence.
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