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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Hopefully here the transfer and nudge east from the confluence can save us. Does seem like at some point that takes over and forces the storm east. Still way far out though. We also need a good PNA ridge.
  2. jm1220
    Temps are marginal though, maybe around freezing or just over. I’d think in the best zone it would be 3-5” rather than 6-8” the NAM shows. Definitely a nice event though given the last 2 winters and hopefully it can just be an appetizer. I’m hoping this wave is a little more amped and stronger. To me that means it can suppress the flow behind it somewhat and prevent wave 2 from becoming too amped.
  3. jm1220
    Nice-looks like even the coast has a little wiggle room for it becoming a little more amped and it still be mainly snow. I could finally be in a decent spot for this.
  4. jm1220
    Jan 2016 was a Miller A El Niño fueled southern stream system. This (Weds) is a system redeveloping due to (hopefully) blocking and confluence north of us, so Miller B. Also should be moving quicker.
  5. jm1220
    Uhh no, not even close to the same setup as that was.
  6. jm1220
    Yes it nudges the trough east. Without it, strong chance it tries to cut.
  7. jm1220
    Also, wonder if a stronger wave 1 can suppress wave 2 somewhat.
  8. jm1220
    Too early to focus on a specific track now but if confluence is getting better that’s good. We need resistance to the north to force this SE of us.
  9. jm1220
    I think we need better PNA cooperation than models have now. There’s too much risk of storms trending too far north without it.
  10. jm1220
    Yep, with the PNA not cooperating so well this could end up trying to run inland. Time for that to improve still though
  11. jm1220
    Also possible that a stronger Wave 1 could help suppress Wave 2 behind it?
  12. jm1220
    Haven’t been following this very closely yet but it wouldn’t surprise me if the second wave for Weds trended more amped due to the not great PNA. Gives the trough more room to amplify in the East and force a NW track. The blocking up north does force it to redevelop somewhere but hopefully it’s not when we’re already flooded in warm air. A primary that hangs on too long (never a problem here ) also sends warm air aloft in which means a lot of sleet. Still long ways to go though.
  13. jm1220
    Up this way including NE Nassau it’s in the upper 20s. Slight SW wind keeping it much warmer right on the S Shore.
  14. jm1220
    I’m no fan of the ridge east of Hawaii-it would cause lower heights out West than we want. It could lead to a situation where the low tries to cut and we have to hope the blocking can force a transfer to an offshore system in time which usually isn’t the case here. That could mean snow to rain near the coast and more snow further north like the I-90 corridor.
  15. jm1220
    It’s definitely better than last winter. One thing I’m not thrilled about is the ridge east of Hawaii in the means. Normally you want a trough there. Storms that try to amplify may try to cut first and bring warm air in. Maybe the blocking could result in them being snow to rain here or force a redevelopment in time for New England to remain snow.
  16. jm1220
    Perhaps the closest recent event was the 2/25/10 retrograde bomb that gave Central Park 21” and parts of upstate NY over 36” but it likely was a warmer storm and a little faster moving than Mar 1888.
  17. jm1220
    PA over 250 dead today. Horrifying. Really is a nationwide surge now vs regional like the summer and spring.
  18. jm1220
    For the next 2 weeks there’ll be huge numbers coming out from there. The stay home orders should really help after the 20th or so at least for new cases. Hope they have enough hospital room.
  19. jm1220
    Certainly not how NY is doing it. Cuomo has been threatening shutdowns again and although the outbreak is worsening here it’s nowhere near some of these badly affected Midwest states over the last 2-3 months.
  20. jm1220
    16” where I was living then 10 miles east of JFK airport. First time I definitely heard thundersnow. Fast switch to mostly rain though on the eastern 1/2 of Long Island.
  21. jm1220
    That’s unbelievable to me. IN is limiting hospital procedures and is nearing/at hospital capacity but has businesses open 100% capacity? No even talk of limiting capacity or closures?
  22. jm1220
    Temps are also getting into the mid-upper 30s now so it may be mix rain/snow when it does hit the ground.
  23. jm1220
    There were palm tree forests at the Arctic Circle when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Just sayin....
  24. jm1220
    Those areas did well with the upslope favored events over the last couple of weeks. The lake effect/upper low system from a week or so ago for OH/W PA also produced a ton of upslope snow down to NC.
  25. jm1220
    I think Worldometers tries to backdate those backlogs to the proper day(s) but unsustainable nonetheless.
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