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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Maybe this storm can really do it-the 12” totals at Central Park and State College. Looks like this is an I-80 bullseye at this point. And in a moderate Nina no less.
  2. jm1220
    The stretch of 2000-01 to 2017-18 will likely be an all time great stretch of any of our lives despite the occasional 2001-02, 2011-12 bummers. When has the last average been 30" at Central Park for a decade? Uncle W?
  3. jm1220
    Before Jan 1996 I have a spotty memory (was born in 1987). I remember the late 12/95 storm mixing but being a good event, Mar 1993 having icebergs as there was flooding everywhere in Long Beach, 1993-94 being cold/snowy but not many specifics. The 1/96 blizzard was my first real snap into place memory of a storm. And then I was hooked lol. Don't remember that mixing either.
  4. jm1220
    Best case right there.
  5. jm1220
    Or check the Central PA thread. Essentially best case scenario. Probs of 3", 6" are also there.
  6. jm1220
    I totally agree, Nemo from Feb 2013 could have been 24" in Long Beach but we wasted 3 hours to sleet when northern Nassau/Suffolk was pounding so it definitely happens, but there's no "the big ones mix" rule anywhere. 1/3/18 was all snow down to Ocean City MD. It's about the low tracks and cold air availability.
  7. jm1220
    Maybe the upper air low meanders enough that warm air is eventually brought in aloft and mixes us when the 850mb jet max passes us and there's kind of a dryslot. That's what the NAM/Euro tonight kinda indicated and there's precedent for that, i.e. 2/13/14. Anyway we'll see what tomorrow brings. I wouldn't mind the crazy 8 hour thump or so to it drying out and it being mild until what's left of the CCB comes in. 12/17 had that but the dryslot was aggressive and broke the heavy snow up which allowed the warm air to take over here. Always a risk. 8" here from that, could've been 12"+ if it cooperated a little better. Seeing the 16"+ from you guys on I-99 was worth it though.
  8. jm1220
    Mar 21, 2018, Jan 3 2018, etc etc from before then. The idea that "the big ones always mix on the coast" is wrong. I wasn't here for these but I assume 1/25/15 and 1/27/16 didn't mix on the coast? PDII had maybe a few sleet pellets in Long Beach but was otherwise all snow. 12/30/00 was all snow for me.
  9. jm1220
    Yup, that will be insane. If this warm intrusion/dryslot idea stays hopefully that rocks us first.
  10. jm1220
    Crazy 850mb easterly jet into our region by 21z Monday. Seems like it strengthened from last run. This would be a hellacious 6-8 hour or so period of snow I-80 in NJ to LI.
  11. jm1220
    That could maybe do it for both our regions, that 850mb jet is crazy. It'll be a faster thump where I am on that jet while the cold air lasts but the overall evolution and CCB development and good ratios benefit you guys. Maybe it can stay that way. We all get our 12"+ but you get it over a day while I get it in 8 hours and go to a dryslot.
  12. jm1220
    Tomorrow will really tell the tale IMO. No one out of the game.
  13. jm1220
    Hate to say it but I doubt it turns out like this. There are certain situations where much of PA and the NYC area get crushed like in 2003 and 2016 (Nino years), or the fluke 03-04 winter. This is a moderate Nina and the trending probably isn't done. That's a benefit for you guys, hopefully for me it isn't enjoy for a couple hours before rain or the dryslot. Even if so you guys deserve it though, hopefully this can be the diamond in the rough somehow.
  14. jm1220
    I was never really worried about suppression in this pattern. Some places like Liberty may be on the edge still but in a mod-strong Nina with something like this coming in, this was taking every inch north it could.
  15. jm1220
    Tonight has to be the last of the NW jumps for NYC and the coast. The front end thump can work out fine but now we're relying on that to a dryslot when it gets marginally warm. It's never a great feeling. 12/17 was supposed to work out that way until it went to shredded garbage. The mid level lows are taking better tracks this time so far so hope that holds. But NW posters, totally in the game.
  16. jm1220
    Somehow keep it this way please.
  17. jm1220
    Euro on board for the front end crazy thump for NYC to get its 12" snow and then NW rots in the CCB for its snow. Clear trend tonight.
  18. jm1220
    Safe to say the UK isn't happening.
  19. jm1220
    Yes!! The best wouldn't get back to I-99 on this run but high ratios would help it end up better than precip/snow maps would say off the bat.
  20. jm1220
    I'll always be part of your suffering. My State College years 2004-09 were brutal. I rooted for you guys on 12/17 when I knew it would be a Central PA event, best in a decade!! (ended up with the best a little north of expected but IPT still had 24")
  21. jm1220
    Hopefully this one can be a biggie for all of us!! I'm pretty optimistic and it seems the same mechanics to get this to work can make it happen for you guys as well as around NYC. Fingers crossed. Confluence in time to get the coastal system to cooperate and a decent front end for PA.
  22. jm1220
    Soon. Snow starts just over 48 hours out.
  23. jm1220
    Still has 8" or so here which I gladly take. There's been about 1" here since 12/17, 9" on the season in my backyard. Not sure what it's seeing that others aren't. Euro will tell the tale as usual I guess.
  24. jm1220
    Overnight Sun into Mon. The real heavy snow could be Mon afternoon-evening. Long duration to get it really started.
  25. jm1220
    UK is fine for the city and S/E but an outlier. Wouldn't be worried about it.
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