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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    No. If this comes together right it can perhaps make it to 20" but the top 3 are all over 2 feet.
  2. jm1220
    Verbatim it would but it would be as the heavy precip pivots away. The 10-1 ratio snow map has me at 14" but the precip total is about 1.7" liquid at the same point, so that would have 0.3" liquid as non snow. For the city the rain adds up to about 0.1". To me that means a very heavy initial snow thump followed by light rain/showers in the dry slot for a time.
  3. jm1220
    12z for comparison. I'm not seeing a big difference. Better snow for the NW crew. I guess more GGEM-like with the max in E PA?
  4. jm1220
    Through 72 on this Euro run
  5. jm1220
    Looks about the same as 18z to me? At 3z Tue if we're all still snow outside of maybe Fire Island and the precip is tapering off I'd call that a win.
  6. jm1220
    COD: Satellite and Radar
  7. jm1220
    :I remember the incredibly heavy snow band that formed like a fist (again I was living in TX then ) as Jonas came in in Jan 2016, something similar probably happens this time as the mid level moist easterly jet cranks up. Let's hope anyway.
  8. jm1220
    Cheers to that!! I have to think that front end 6 hours or so produces for most of you as well even in SE MA.
  9. jm1220
    This isn't the kind of system where most here outside of maybe the far eastern people near I-81 should expect the best amounts. The coastal redevelopment will take the best dynamics with it, but there's still a very nice easterly moist feed that will keep the snow going over PA and make for very nice amounts but not blockbuster. The 12/5/03 storm could be one to look at for you guys where there was still a good snow event in PA despite there being a coastal redevelopment like this.
  10. jm1220
    Cheers to that!
  11. jm1220
    Yes that was definitely the fluke season. There was the mid Feb 2010 one also that actually did max out west of NYC. The blocking/confluence is relaxing this time though so hopefully not a repeat.
  12. jm1220
    Not sure what it's doing here honestly. It looked slightly better than 12z FWIW
  13. jm1220
    No they still have them. They got rid of heavy snow warnings and blizzard watches. I could see it being a possibility (blizzard) especially south shore and eastern areas. You also need the 3 hour or longer duration and it's hard to say still how much mixing makes it to places that would get the strongest winds.
  14. jm1220
    And for me that was a very close shave but I just missed out on the really heavy snow. The eastern half of Long Island had up to 18" as the coastal storm blossomed. It's always a close shave here one way or the other. Nemo in Feb 2013 had over 30" in central Long Island, Juno in 2015 had over 2 feet, etc. It just never quite made it to NYC. But there are others where it does like Dec 2003, and the flukes like 12/30/00 and 2/25/10 which unfortunately for you guys cut due north.
  15. jm1220
    Absolutely-there'll be a ton of water being lifted on that 850mb jet on Monday. No doubt there will be some insane snow rates when the front end comes through. And it won't be booking either due to the fairly slow nature of the low. It'll essentially be a mini atmospheric river.
  16. jm1220
    Yes and the fast Pacific pattern may be helping us for a change here. If this had time to sit around and dig/deepen it really would've been a snow event inland and mostly rain near the coast.
  17. jm1220
    Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston like Juno in 1/2015.
  18. jm1220
    I can't think of a storm this type that maxes out over E PA. A miller A certainly can like Jan 2016 or Jan 1996 but miller Bs typically are the best closer to the coast around here and into New England. Maybe this one will be a little different though due to the earlier development and maturing? I can think of plenty of Miller Bs though that ended up developing later than expected and ultimately trended east especially Juno in Jan 2015 and that storm of which we never speak Mar 2001.
  19. jm1220
    You'll do very well but I would expect 12-18" maybe not 24"+. I think those totals would be closer to the coast (not on the coast though, just inland in the better ratios).
  20. jm1220
    It's what was expected and again probably not done trending. The max snow in a miller B doesn't happen in Allentown unfortunately for them, but they'll still do very well.
  21. jm1220
    I missed both Juno in Jan 2015 and Jonas in Jan 2016 when I was living in Austin, TX. Yes I definitely miss the severe weather down there. We don't hold a candle to what I saw in Austin.
  22. jm1220
    Which I can't really understand as it was a Miller A. This won't be nearly as good as that was SW of Philly. Miller B's never are.
  23. jm1220
    Yep. I'm legit getting pumped now. I don't expect 20+ but it'll be a very sizeable event for the vast majority of us.
  24. jm1220
    Models are really keying in on the insane front end and lift on the easterly jet. It'll have tons of moisture with it. 90% of what falls is Mon morning to evening on that batch. It holds the warm air back so if that happens the changeover would be when the dryslot comes in.
  25. jm1220
    GFS v16 through 72. Has snow showers for most on Tue that would add maybe an additional 1-3" to what we get on Mon.
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