jm1220

Enjoy everyone!! Looks like I-81 and especially maybe just west are about to get annihilated. CTP has it set up between I-99/Rt 220 and I-81 for possible 20+ but should be 12" for all posters here except maybe way south near Lancaster.

Like a fire burning through a forest, the fire diminishes eventually in one spot and moves on. Germany with over 800 deaths today-they're in some trouble. Proportionally for us that would be well over 3000 deaths. Deaths in other western European countries are decreasing now other than Italy and the UK to an extent.

I lived there from 2004-09 and had a bunch of moderate events, nothing I would really call major. The largest single event was the Valentines Day 2007 snow/sleet event with I think 11". Consistently below average snow, one year 08-09 maybe got above 40". PLENTY of events that split PA down the middle and skipped us over, storms that formed too late or cutters that were sleet events. This looks like the kind of storm that can really dump on them-a track over the Chesapeake Bay into S NJ is essentially textbook for that area. The result is a sloppy mess for my backyard but I'll be thrilled if somehow UNV can pull it off to get above 20". Yes it's really been since 1994 that it's happened. The area is known for nickle/dime events that can add up but often to below season average. Further east/north often get in on the big nor'easters. 3/14/17 if I recall was a very nice event in State College but not like Binghamton/Scranton area. I drove through much of PA in the wake of that and definitely remember a huge max in NE PA that petered out a little to the west.

Not sure how active @Wmsptwx has been lately but if I was him I'd be getting pumped. Should be a crusher for the I-99 corridor/Rt 220 for a change.

Good luck out there-certainly looks based on trends like I-80 corridor and I-81 north of I-80 do very well-essentially an arc from the Catskills to UNV/AOO. Something like a 3/14/17 outcome. If these models are right, could be the first 20"+ event for UNV since 1994? There should be a hellacious band just north of that 700mb low track, deformation and plenty of lift there, along with good ratios.

Weenie deformation area north of the 700mb low. Wish I was back at my PSU stomping grounds now. They’ve waited literally 2 decades almost for a storm like this again lol.

WAY!!! too long to go before some ridiculous.... what's wrong with you? Seriously.

I can’t think of a storm that ever worked out from here on south where the low cut into NJ. The low I think can only cut to around Cape May then has to make a beeline east to keep it snow even to around NYC. I think this is gonna want to cut, we need the confluence big time. Maybe I’m being a “Debbie” as you guys say but can’t discount something like the 18z GFS or a scenario where the confluence weakens or the PNA gets less cooperative.

I think about 10” altogether from the primary. I didn’t live there until 2005 but I remember from reading reports. I remember when I went to PSU getting shafted constantly with the coastal tracks or inland runners during the Nina years like 07-08, hopefully there’s a way it can really work out there and here as well. They might not even be on the board yet for snow in State College or if they are it’s been very little.

Found this and decided to bump it, probably useful for the upcoming Wed/Thu storm. Put questions about DT and other private mets in this thread too.

About 20” where I am from that (Juno). I was living in TX at the time and missed it.

Yeah, can't argue there aren't plenty of roller coasters with this upcoming storm(s). Hopefully the evolution can make for a good outcome for as many of us as possible. Plenty of room for a crash/burn as well. Never easy with these. I'd for sure say with any Miller B type outcome typically a further NE redevelopment is favored.

Dec 2009 was a Nina? 09-10 was a Nino. The 12/19/09 storm was a Nino-evolution storm from what I know. Not that I complain about that storm I had about 20" from the 12/19/09 storm.

The Mon system isn't nothing either especially in SE CT/RI/Cape Cod. Could be a quick few inches or so if it comes in heavy (my backyard's first chance to get on the board-so far T here this winter). Temps are marginal though so it's another one where the weenie maps will be overdone.

Yep. It's not a Jan 1996 or Feb 1983 verbatim by any means but a strong trough/Shortwave coming in against a reinforced 50-50, blocking setup screams potential. Maybe one concern to me is the PNA ridge not being ideal. You look at those storms, they had a sharp PNA ridge over ID to AZ. Also the blocking doesn't seem too stout and the flow is progressive so not as long lasting a system. But it could be a really nice system for many people IF the evolution stays this way.

The overall evolution is what we should care about at this range. Any snow map is eye candy as the storm is happening (got burned on the last weekend storm myself) much less 120hrs out.

It's ridiculous at this range but it can be too cold aloft for best ratios. Surface temps also don't determine ratios. I remember numerous occasions where I had 10-1 at best sand flakes living at Penn State with temps in the low teens. Dendrites are -12 to -18C, colder than that also hurts ratios. But any snow map at this range especially is ridiculous, at this range you only care about the pattern coming in and overall evolution. Looks good to me which is what I care about.

Yep, definitely looks like a situation where it tries to cut north to Cape May and then we see how strong the confluence is and it gets forced east?

Fine by me. Contrary to popular belief NYC's best storms often head just inside the BM.

With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air.

Hopefully here the transfer and nudge east from the confluence can save us. Does seem like at some point that takes over and forces the storm east. Still way far out though. We also need a good PNA ridge.

It’s definitely better than last winter. One thing I’m not thrilled about is the ridge east of Hawaii in the means. Normally you want a trough there. Storms that try to amplify may try to cut first and bring warm air in. Maybe the blocking could result in them being snow to rain here or force a redevelopment in time for New England to remain snow.

PA over 250 dead today. Horrifying. Really is a nationwide surge now vs regional like the summer and spring.

For the next 2 weeks there’ll be huge numbers coming out from there. The stay home orders should really help after the 20th or so at least for new cases. Hope they have enough hospital room.

Certainly not how NY is doing it. Cuomo has been threatening shutdowns again and although the outbreak is worsening here it’s nowhere near some of these badly affected Midwest states over the last 2-3 months.