Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    26,235

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    These CCB bands are modeled so often but many times don't happen. It does have a vigorous 500 and 700mb low which close off for a time so I guess I could see that somewhere.
  2. jm1220
    NAM is better but still not great or a huge hit for the city. Might be a start for better trends but we'll see. 700mb low still tracks over E PA and N NJ which brings mid level warm air in. Also drying out by 6z after initial thump. It does track a little south of 12z however which was over Port Jervis. We really want that tracking south of us if possible. Just north of that track will have the heaviest snow.
  3. jm1220
    It’ll be real somewhere for sure. The strong mid level lows mean there’ll be a huge front end hit of snow where we can make it happen but also dry air circulates in behind it.
  4. jm1220
    Eventually it will when it encounters the block/confluence. Better call is it has to before we’re flooded with warm mid level air and a dryslot.
  5. jm1220
    I’d say the odds of a foot in Central Park are under 30%. If I had to say a number there I’d say 7” of snow and junk mixed.
  6. jm1220
    For it to be a blizzard you need the conditions for 3 consecutive hours. Probably won’t happen since the most intense winds might correlate with the dryslot or mixing.
  7. jm1220
    Yes-it won’t be useful until tomorrow.
  8. jm1220
    Can’t speak much to it but I’d rather see models like the Rgem and Nam correct SE.
  9. jm1220
    It’s not weak aloft, it’s quite vigorous and gives the confluence a fight.
  10. jm1220
    Thanks! The storm you're referring to is probably 3/14/17.
  11. jm1220
    I'd be quite surprised at this point if we made it to a foot. 6-9" on the table still, if I had to guess we make it to the low end of that as a combo of snow and other junk. But a big front end burst can add up quick. Long Beach and the rest of the south shore might be more like 3-5".
  12. jm1220
    I lived there from 2004-09 and had a bunch of moderate events, nothing I would really call major. The largest single event was the Valentines Day 2007 snow/sleet event with I think 11". Consistently below average snow, one year 08-09 maybe got above 40". PLENTY of events that split PA down the middle and skipped us over, storms that formed too late or cutters that were sleet events. This looks like the kind of storm that can really dump on them-a track over the Chesapeake Bay into S NJ is essentially textbook for that area. The result is a sloppy mess for my backyard but I'll be thrilled if somehow UNV can pull it off to get above 20". Yes it's really been since 1994 that it's happened. The area is known for nickle/dime events that can add up but often to below season average. Further east/north often get in on the big nor'easters. 3/14/17 if I recall was a very nice event in State College but not like Binghamton/Scranton area. I drove through much of PA in the wake of that and definitely remember a huge max in NE PA that petered out a little to the west.
  13. jm1220
    That said hopefully the Euro stopped the bleeding and the other amped models can tick back SE.
  14. jm1220
    It’s the mid level low tracks that matter. If those go west of you, almost definite that you will mix and/or dryslot. Surface highs don’t stop that from happening. The high matters for the surface cold.
  15. jm1220
    Don't have the exact number for each city but pretty sure Jan 1996 blizzard was 12"+ for both too.
  16. jm1220
    It's still possible a lot of us get 4-8" if the initial snow thump really delivers. Guess we'll find out tomorrow.
  17. jm1220
    We can and have but this isn't the storm for it and not an analog for those. If the confluence was to hold better it could, looks now like it will be retreating and the low will be able to hug too far north.
  18. jm1220
    Lots of moderate type events when I lived in State College 2004-2009, nothing more than 10-11". Takes a setup just like this to really crush that area, track from Chesapeake Bay to NJ.
  19. jm1220
    Not sure how active @Wmsptwx has been lately but if I was him I'd be getting pumped. Should be a crusher for the I-99 corridor/Rt 220 for a change.
  20. jm1220
    That's about the textbook perfect track for Central PA big snow I learned when I was at PSU. For us.... Regardless I'll be happy that State College should finally get a huge one after so many years from the looks of it. 3/14/17 was good out there but not crushing like up near the Poconos/Catskills.
  21. jm1220
    Hope you're right. More bullish than me for the NYC area at least. I don't see Riverhead under 2", Islip with 10-14" and Central Park at 6-10".
  22. jm1220
    Good luck out there-certainly looks based on trends like I-80 corridor and I-81 north of I-80 do very well-essentially an arc from the Catskills to UNV/AOO. Something like a 3/14/17 outcome. If these models are right, could be the first 20"+ event for UNV since 1994? There should be a hellacious band just north of that 700mb low track, deformation and plenty of lift there, along with good ratios.
  23. jm1220
    Verbatim (laughable of course) the mid level lows seem to track in a way that keeps the mix and dryslot just south of the island. The mix becomes a problem when you start having strong southerly mid level winds.
  24. jm1220
    The GFS is just laughable. The upgrade can’t come soon enough.
  25. jm1220
    Ehhh. Reason I say disaster was we were supposed to get 8-12” even in S Nassau where I was living at the time and I think ended with 3” and then driving rain. But the writing was on the wall for that too. I think we’re in a better airmass to start for this one though so hopefully we can get the strong front end that drops a quick half foot.
×
×
  • Create New...