There is a pretty good signal of negative North Atlantic Tripole right now. Historically, the Spring is a great time to correlate Atlantic SSTs with hurricane season activity. 1969,1995, 1998, 2005, 2010 were the highest +NTA Spring's and the average #storms for these years is about 20. El Nino also looks like a sure things, so I'd go over/under on number named storms 12.