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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking really good for Winter. Weak El Nino and huge bias for Hudson Bay-south trough/+PNA/-EPO pattern right now, the Summer through...
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What an awful year for storms. The worst, probably ever. The air has this constant ice-cube-like tint. Call it natural or whatever, I think it's a reason for the clouds.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Updating my prediction to Weak El Nino peak. The cold in the subsurface near 180 degrees is concerning for stronger than +0.8 ONI trimonthly high.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check out this strong +PNA which you usually don't see in La Nina, 52-46-2 (Nino-Neutral-Nina). Then the NAO is positive and this whole evolution is really developing-El Nino-like http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It goes something like every event that has broke in June-July peaks in October-November or later. Subsurface looks like a 2 month warming at least.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The upper midwest one's aren't that impressive. -50 in Chicago? Big deal. I bet the further south has some better extremes. I bet the western 1/3 of the country has some better extremes.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, not a big deal. More -PNA duality than anything else. Surface SST trend doesn't necessarily correlate to North Pacific +PNA, although sometimes shown on models. Easy 3-5 day bias-correction I think
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There's been two substantial anomalies in April and May. On Feb 21, 2018 when Washington DC had 500mb heights of 591dm, breaking its old record of 583, there was a major PV in this area.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Hadley Cell Atlantic, Hadley Cell Pacific
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of water in the Hemisphere right now
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Blizzard of 93 conditions have been building as a potential energy over the south part of Greenland for the last few months and years. Not really related, but a cool point. I can see this potential energy hitting the northeast in a few years as either a hurricane or storm.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    When the subsurface warm pool reaches a peak in surface warming, it looks like a GOA Low is on models. I wonder if this will happen. (I think not)
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I mean, the most named storms ever in El Nino is 15 (2004) and second is 12 in 11 years (Since 1978. The 1960s went higher)
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Thanks. This is the subsurface data for May. 2018 5 0.73 0.76 0.89 Opp: 2016, 2010, 1998, 1995, 1992 For: 2012, 2011, 2009, 2006, 1997, 1989 7/11 chance El Nino (CPC ONI) (but it's really about 90%)
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It could be one of the best Winters in a while
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This means subsurface temps in the central region will continue cooling, which probably means the events remains Weak or goes back to Neutral in the Fall.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Tao/Triton maps are warming rather rapidly. +0.5 pool
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The surface is warming pretty rapidly now. We'll be able to see it in about a week.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Here comes El Nino
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surprised so many high guesses, the AMO is cold and we are going into El Nino most likely. I can see 13-7-3, something like that.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Some +3> subsurface anomalies are getting close to the surface and Nino 3.4 has made switch to positive. Maybe in a few weeks.. AMO should start to warm soon, wonder if this will create a sea-saw effect with ENSO (spurring Nino). Medium term models are La Ninaish for the Hemisphere.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    No, we haven't. This is like 175% water after ice cubes melt, in the air and stuff. It's not thunderstorm producing.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Now the modeled pattern is shifting a little bit. I think more in an AMO thing though.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    So check it out, subsurface negative trend in the center of subsurface regions, and big -PNA
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