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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global yearly cycle is consistent though.. I'd be less certain about analogs pre-1920s
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    >1*c rise from March-June (not >1 March).. 2009, 1997. It's 6/7 going into reverse ENSO 2009 is a good analog as far as the 1948-2018 dataset goes
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global pattern change coming in 6-7 days per models, I think it will accelerate ice melt to near record levels through July (I can already feel it)
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you factor in the exponential increase of ice loss in time it's a nonpoint I guess. This is more saying we are leveling up global warmth/overall melt, in a few days.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There is near record Hadley Cell expansion coming up in a pattern change in 6-7 days. Would favor arctic melt down the line I think.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Slight risk is a nice surprise. It's so damn "wet"
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surface is much warmer than upper levels right now in the Northern Hemisphere. Low at 500mb could be very warm at the surface in certain places.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This would actually be an impressive melt pattern for the arctic if it verifies http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Beyond there, there is guidance for +Jul-Aug. Big melt season I think Also, today seems to be a switch from less favorable to favorable.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.pdf
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    healthy - forming from the center
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Moving into Weak El Nino territory now. You guys are probably right about Weak to Moderate El Nino.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You can pretty much guarantee the AMO will be rising for the next few months. With a continued strong Atlantic ridge, expected cold thunderstorm activity through the Summer.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty cool, I'd put a watch there too. It's not going to develop though. Global warming, that's why. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northrockies_loop.php
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can see more evenening out of the 2013-2016 El Nino. There's probably a really strong El Nino coming up in the next 10 years.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. SOI is also up since 1998.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If it stays at +Neutral/weak El Nino range, A lot more options globally, where I think a stronger Nino would have narrowed it down quite a bit in this post-2013 pattern.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Atlantic SSTs are cold, El Nino conditions since April, basically really above average precip. I'm just pointing out a pretty significant pattern change.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Furthermore, this subsurface warmth building in the west (~140E) is a sea-saw to La Nina conditions in time. (I cant get it to animate.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check it out, I wonder what's going on? This is last year-like and a definite trend in the last few days.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Trending away from El Nino
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    So this cold pool around -200m may stop the El Nino altogether
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFS ensembles are trending more northern-US ridge, constant above average. Maybe a derecho setup down the line. It's kind of trending away from El Nino.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Moderate is possible. Subsurface warmth is backbuilding west now.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Long term GFS ensembles even have a +PNA so..
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's a saturated airmass. The tropical Atlantic ridge goes much further west.
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